Showing posts with label Goldman Sachs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Goldman Sachs. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

GLD And The H&S



Is the neckline finally broken? WEEKLY indicators look like the breakout is for real. RSI looks strong. Target for the triangle goes first at 105. Then the possible big move to the H&S target of 126.

What's bad? The rising wedge might be experiencing a throw over. Ouch to the bulls if it is.

Tough call. I will not be messing with it, and if I do I'll have some serious stops in place just in case.

(Chart may be better viewed HERE)

Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Teetering At The Top? This Is One Heck Of A Balancing Act!

But the top of what? Is the game coming to an end? The end Tom Brokaw says that we're too ignorant to see, and that we can't figure out on our own on the Internet without mother media being the deliverer of such news? The end CNBS refuses to report? The end the government and TBTF banks refuse to allow? The end the Fed may have allowed to happen? The end that was inevitable since this credit bubble was unleashed? The end that was foretold before fractional reserve banking was allowed?

More and more this appears to be a time to socialize, or to further the process of socialization begun many years ago. Everywhere you look this once great nation of nations is becoming one massive government sponsored program after another. Unfortunately they have failed at a high majority of these and hopefully this is just the end of a cycle. A time of purging excess from the system.

Zero Hedge has Excess Liquidity Game Is Coming To An End. I which TD brings us this from David Rosenberg's daily notes, "In his daily notes, Rosie looks at what is sure to cause a few sleepless nights to all trend chasers who believe that the trillions in excess liquidity will be there to forever prop up artificially high stock prices. News flash - it won't, and it has already started to contract aggressively, yet computers seem to have problems with pulling down St. Louis Fed time series in their quest to constantly front-run one another." David, Big Ben is "making it rain" man just like Packman does in Vegas. Don't you ever get out to have any fun? What's so wrong with a little excess funds floating around?

David has been spot on thus far and his exit from Mother Merrill was timely and I would love to know the true reasons as to the timing of his exit. His successor surely is towing the corporate line as ZH brings us Rosenberg Replacement Reaches For The Stratosphere, Sees 1,200 S&P On "Strong Earnings Growth". "The Chief US Equity Strategist and Rosie replacement sees an S&P earnings of approximately $70, or roughly a Div/0 compared to the most recent negative trailing EPS for S&P companies. How Bianco sees earnings growth on limited cost extraction and a persistently declining top line is just slightly beyond our meager calculating skills." Another glowing report from ML! Surprise! Someone care to do the math on a 1200 P/E for the market? Did you hear about the JPM upgrade of GE? This is NUTS!

Then from The Market Ticker Denninger delivers FLASH: Consumer Credit RECORD Contraction. "The inevitable contraction that is necessary to put the financial system back into balance is happening - whether The Fed wants it to or not." What Karl, you mean the reflation trick isn't working anymore?

Mish tells us the great news in Job Creation Down 35%, Consumer Spending Down 33% From Year Ago. "Bear in mind I think unemployment is going to continue rising for another year, then come back down slowly and reluctantly as noted in Structurally High Unemployment For A Decade. Thus a jobless recovery is a given, assuming there even is a recovery worth mentioning." I would love to get Mish geeked up on about five 5hr energy drinks before he does his next post. Nah, that would make him more like me and we don't need another me.

The Big Picture has a great post New Week, New Links where you can glean such delightful tidbits like, 86% of all mortgages are taxpayer backed in some form or another or Study Says World’s Stocks Controlled by Select Few and The Sorry Tale of America’s Out-of-control Spending. This post summarized all sorts of delightful information of our green shootless economy.

Folks, I have not mentioned the dollar, treasury auctions, gold, oil, FNM, RE, CRE, CDS, MBS, China, medicare, social security or pick a war that were funding. That is a huge heap of shit we're dealing with and our president has time to have a twenty minute 9/11 conspiracy interview with Charlie Sheen (not really). The purging of excesses is JUST underway and will continue till some form of sustainable measure is attained. Remember without a gold standard of valuation you can exponentially expand your lending capabilities to exponential proportions and we have done just that. There is more shit off balance sheets than we can count.

Our government has allowed the vastly unregulated banks to run all over us. You were given the keys to the kingdom in exchange for allowing (unintentionally) them to rape you of your financial freedom all for greed, profit and power. The house of cards is teetering and will crumble soon. It is inevitable. Just be ready when it hits. It may be sooner than you can imagine. Tom Brokaw will let you know when.

Sunday, September 6, 2009

Let's Take A Quick Holiday Look As GS

Looking at the GS weekly chart. Extremes are evident. Divergences are not.

FIBS: Absolutely perfect 61.8% retracement from the high to low (Note: The major indexes have completed a nice 31.8% retracement which technically allows for a completed correction). IF P2 or the top B wave is completed the fibs for the corrective of this move are 125, 111 and 98.

INDICATORS: I took the chart back 5 years so you could see the fall, the divergences and some LT support levels before the fall. Red and Green lines mark what I think are the true tops and bottoms. Hard to describe how overbought the most manipulated stock of the leading market manipulator is (or how this ascent to infinity can be legitimized). TRIX, Slow Sto, MACD, RSI (might be cracking the trendline) and the massively descending MACD histogram are all teetering on the precipice, BUT REMEMBER there are no divergences which bothers me. GS is also in a battle with the 200ma at this time.

TRENDLINES: Looks like you have a choice of two channels (large and small variety) and a wedge that I do not like the look of. Price has broken the wedge and is sitting on the lower trendline of the small channel. Several support and resistance lines are featured. GS put a tail thru the upper resistance line and is struggling to get thru it. The long black diagonal bear market top line got dusted back in June (When I think this run should have topped).

What do I think? See that little orange circle and arrow? That could be considered a target, as the fib, support,50ma, lower BB and back test of the trendline all meet nice and clean at that point (GS - 111). I'm not gonna hold my breath, but (stealing one from Kenny) a Shanky Target (TM).

Sho as hell looks like she's topped out, BUT I would not put it past the manipulation train to blow thru to a new high later this year as I keep anticipating divergences to be set before the insolvent banks get their just rewards. The pump and dump may indeed be complete as valuations and insider selling are maxed out. The $DJUSFN chart at the top shows some room left to run to get to a 38% retracement.

I'll be playing it as the top is in, but would not be surprised to see one more pop. Is the sucker rally complete or will the vampire squid draw the last few remaining tid-bits of life out of the unsuspecting as the rape of America goes on without hindrance from regulators, administrators or any authoritative agency?

GL trading.

If you are a gambler, you may want to take a look at the Alt Energy section in my chartbook. Some tasty looking morsels in there, but you'd be betting against the house IMO. Just take a peek.


Daily chart can be viewed HERE.

Weekly chart better viewed HERE.