My Dollar Chart

I don't see much more downside at this time, but they could just surprise the hell out of all of us as you hear targets in the lower 70's on the MSM. Bottom line is it looks oversold as all get out. It is at support. IMO a throw under of the E touch of the falling wedge right near the target for a 5th wave. Get real. It should be preparing for launch. Look for RSI to crack the down trend line as a key. This in combination with the VIX chart below and the SPX and you get a brew that is screaming TURN. Have your stops in place and a plan for entering the trade just in case "they" decide to play the devaluation card again.

NOTE: This is a daily chart, and I prefer the weekly charts for major turns. I'll build one and let you know if my opinion changes.

Weekly VIX Chart

Looks like a completed ABC to me. You can see the black fib that is used to measure A and C. 200ma supporting price that is having a positive divergence with SPX. All indicators dramatically oversold. One last trendline to cross.

Will it cross it or will it be rejected? If it does cross look for a 5 wave move up. If not, then this may be a 5 wave move down and we're gonna get a truncated 5th wave. Believe it or not there is still plenty of room of the VIX to fall yet and the triangle formed here could be a 4.

A B C Update

It ran all the way down to the lower trendline of the upper throwover wedge. This is a pretty critical point to possibly denote the end 4 (or 2) of C of 2 or the possible beginning of 2 of 1 of 3. I have been mentioning a possible zig-zag down here as well. The 60m have bottomed, but I expect them to embed and the dailys are still running south strong. I am hanging on to P2 by the skin of my teeth now. I have a few key indicator points that have not hit yet, but things look really miserable (an they will be soon).

Just something to think about coming into Monday.

T - minus 17 days to my projected 10/12 top date.

You may want to pay attention to what's going on at the G20 meetings. The world just may be changing right before your eyes and you may not even know it.

Enjoy your weekend!

My Weekly Wave Count Chart

This is a simplistic EWT chart I have that shows what I am thinking. Since it is a mountain, it is obviously not perfect, but the mountain allows the lesser counters to "see" the EWT count better. I do not like the look of the potential 20/50ma cross. We're at the top trendline on this chart in the ABC corrective and on lots of wedges, so is a turn here imperative? Not the "big one" IMO. Not yet at least, but let's see what the lower trendline does here soon. I expect it to be violated on the other charts (see targets in below posts). We may plummet to 950ish here very soon.

Technically where we are now could be considered the E touch of the A-E black wedge forming the ABC AND if you notice on this chart 1004 is the 38% fib line which means a technical retracement is completed. I'm just not ready to call a top yet mainly cause of the formation of the ABC corrective is not complete. It could be though.

Note: Check out the weird ass period of the market at the end of last year where the SPXA50 went from near 0 to over 400 but the market remained fairly flat for the period. Strange.

Link to chart in my chartbook. If you do go there please give me a vote at the bottom of the page. Thanks.