Open Weekend Post - 10/01/11, TLT, USB, SPX

Share the love and the knowledge (before the markets collapse and while we still have a free unencumbered internet). Lurkers, come on out and enjoy the fun.

See the new poll question to the right ======>

Watch this and listen carefully. George had it right years ago. This man was way ahead of his time and he understood what was happening 100%.

George Carlin Bankers - YouTube (h/t Soup and WB7)

Morning Post 09/30/11, SPX

"In case you haven’t noticed lately, the market doesn’t move on good or bad earnings or economic data, it moves on political rumors and innuendo about government’s willingness to continue the TARP/cheap money/QE lifeline to the terribly over-leveraged banking sector." Kinda says it all. This from Guest Post: The Politics Of Consistently Bad Legislation | ZeroHedge.

I know you hear Soup, myself and others constantly moaning and groaning below about the rumor driven BS farce this market has become. It is always nice to get confirmation from other more respectable sources than this lowly blog that has yet to emerge to the lofty heights it deserves. STB 3.0 is on the way! Then the street cred grows.

What has become of this country and how screwed up is this administrations actions? Read this and try not to puke - State Gets $5 Mil Bonus For Food Stamp Sign Up | Judicial Watch. "In its quest to promote taxpayer-funded entitlement programs, the Obama Administration has actually rewarded one state with a $5 million bonus for its efficiency in adding food-stamp recipients to already bulging rolls." You can only ask, WTF? I guess you can call that a kick back for increasing the democratic voting base.

Afternoon Delight 09/29/11

How bout that end of day ramp action! Gotta love it. STB is really glad to note that the market rallied because, ....because, ....I'll have to get back to you on that one. I'm sure some other reason than an end of quarter statement print that the hedge funds had to have or the PPT salvaging 11,000 on the DOW was the reason. Maybe the latest rumor that they will have another meeting to discuss the failure of the EFSF and how to bolster that program this evening was it? Who knows? I'm sure CNBS will come out with some valid reason soon.

If you missed the Morning Post - it is chocked full of all sorts of charts - Shanky's Technical Analysis and Market Commentary: Morning Post 09/29/11, USD, AUD, EUR, JPY, Gold, Silver, Oil, SPX, DOW, Copper 

On to the news today -

Morning Post 09/29/11, USD, AUD, EUR, JPY, Gold, Silver, Oil, SPX, DOW, Copper

I guess you could assume a rise in GDP and a much better than expected jobs number  would have been dealt by the dealer with the loaded shoe this morning given all the surrounding economic data. How GDP ticks up I have no clue, but one thing is for sure, the economists will have overestimated (as they always do) and the slide will continue sooner than later. As for the jobs number, other than the fact a -391 print is still nothing to crow about, you had to assume they were saving this "surprise" for a key moment when most needed.

Another EFSF vote and more hope. Nothing is stable here or across the pond. The EU issues have been a marvelous distraction from all the issues here at home.

Last night I went ape on the system and all the oppression and spying going down. We are being stripped of our freedoms. I suggest you read this - Shanky's Technical Analysis and Market Commentary: Afternoon Delight 09/28/11 Mini Rant 

Let's have a chartfest shall we! Take note of how many channels are in play across all the charts.

Gold - Pretty sure I noted the 1571 level and all the support there. STB is pretty solid on $1500 being as bad as it gets (for now - if it even gets there).

Afternoon Delight 09/28/11 Mini Rant

Scrolling thru the news that past few days has my level of concern for our safety and privacy (basic Constitutional rights) rising yet again. STB and the commenters report daily on issues where we the people are being taken advantage of (in the terms of Constitutional rights being interpreted by the government for our their best interest regardless of the laws in place).

I think it is that time again where I bring to light issues facing you daily that you really need to be aware of. This is serious stuff. When you hear the term "police state" thrown around, maybe next time you won't dismiss it as quickly as some sort of conspiracy jargon.

Lets start with this video from Washington's Blog and MSNBC - Please take the time to watch this:

Morning Post 09/28/11, SPX

Do you really want me to rehash the the Greece will be saved, will not be saved, will be saved, will not be saved, will be saved, will not be saved, will be saved, will not be saved, will be saved, will not be saved, will be saved, will not be saved, will be saved saga? I did not think so.

Heck the US is barely staying afloat. It just narrowly avoided the umpteenth government shutdown in the past three years. $15.1 trillion in debt and they want to must print more just to keep the doors open.

You are investing in a rigged market that reacts to rumors of hope of recovery and denials about reality. The market must stay at elevated levels to keep the illusion alive that all is well. Right now markets are teetering on the brink of another collapse. Well, they have been for quite some time. What is different this time than last? The debt keeps growing and they have done nothing material to address the underlying fundamental issues surrounding the crisis. They keep kicking the can playing extend and pretend like the problems will magically solve themselves.

Afternoon Delight - 09/27/11

So what, they need more money - what's new? FT Report That Greek Bailout Package On The Verge Of Collapse After Surge In Greek Funding Needs Sends Stocks, Euro Plunging From Highs | ZeroHedge

Must watch video - describes everything we discuss daily about the corruption in the corporate system. John Perkins - Confessions of an Economic Hit Man - is really well informed and easy to listen to. The Global Elite’s Crime Syndicate with Economist John Perkins Alex Jones' Infowars: There's a war on for your mind!

Gotta listen to Ron Paul whenever he speaks - The Daily Show with Jon Stewart - Political Comedy Ron Paul Interview | Comedy Central

Solar storms they are a comin. Thanks to RC, KD and others, STB readers have known about storm 1302 for over a week. Earth in cross-hairs of huge solar storm caused by sunspot 1302 | Mail Online

Morning Post 09/27/11, SPX

HOPE reigns. Ah, we live in the glossy world where the governments will take care of all problems and issues. Hakuna matada mate. Never mind joblessness or housing or hunger or never ending wars or MENA issues or inflation or DEBT or liquidity issues or CDS spreads or bond yields or systemic risk or under capitalized banks - none of that matters. The governments and central banking will take care of everything. As long as the markets maintain acceptable levels and appropriate rumors are floating then all the issues will be addressed and all is well.

Makes you sick, but that has nothing to do with investing. Sadly we've moved from a Fed/QE driven illusion to a rumor supported farce (or BS as noted in a recent tweet). Which is worse? Bottom line is Greece will rear its ugly head again in a few months (actually they are not out of the woods yet as, again, we only have rumors that all is well). After the first bailout they made it a year, then after the second about 6 months, now it is almost a monthly issue.

Afternoon Delight 09/26/11, SPX

If you have not seen this post and the video in it, please do so now - BBC Speechless As Trader Tells Truth: "The Collapse Is Coming...And Goldman Rules The World" | ZeroHedge

This is just lovely - U.S. Government Used Taxpayer Funds To Buy, Sell Weapons During 'Fast And Furious,' Documents Show | Fox News "Not only did U.S. officials approve, allow and assist in the sale of more than 2,000 guns to the Sinaloa cartel -- the federal government used taxpayer money to buy semi-automatic weapons, sold them to criminals and then watched as the guns disappeared."

Same tax rate as a Jew? What? New gaffe: Obama confuses Jews with janitors - latimes.com "Now, watch the C-SPAN video below, and listen especially to the phrase "the same tax rate as a janitor...""

Morning Post 09/26/11, SPX

Other than global default the news of oppression in the land of the free may be the most important thing to be paying attention to at this time. Two stories over the weekend stand out. First the crackdown on the Wall St. protests that the government is obviously growing tired of. Pretty sure the powers that be are saying, (in your best Thurston Howell III voice) "Won't these people just go away?" and have made a few calls to make that happen.

Police Brutally Suppress Wall Street Protest is a post from Washington's Blog you must see. What happens when police grow tired of peaceful protesters? Take a look for yourself. Brutally arrested for just standing on the street talking to a cop. Pepper sprayed for just standing on a street corner? Won't be long till some maniac cop shoots someone. Think I am exaggerating? Video evidence proves it. Bottom line is tot the "system" these people are out of line. They are disrupting the peace and need to go home. WRONG! These people are being American and displaying their Constitutional rights.

Want to expand the police state to a non governmental agency? Sure why not! Here Comes FIATtackWatch: Ben "Big Brother" Bernanke Goes Watergate, Prepares To Eavesdrop On Everything Mentioning The Fed from ZeroHedge paints another nasty picture of the deterioration of our freedoms and expansion of the police state. Welcome to STB a new handler v 2.0 since fraud, Bernanke, market manipulation and a few other "distasteful" tags are used almost every day on this blog.

Sunday Guest Post - Incarnate and the 13/34, RUT, TNA, TZA

STB has entrusted a guest post to Incadamus for the first time - Let's hope this works out. STB 3.0 is slated to allow used generated content. Let's look at this as a trial run.

Welcome to Incarnate's world!

I have been wondering what timeframe I should use for my 401k.  I can only buy or sell at whatever the market closes at, like many others.  Also, there are those that would like to not babysit the market and come up with a good strategy to enter/exit trades.

So I thought to myself, hmm.. let’s try the 60 minute 13/34 EMA cross and see what would have happened from 1/1 – 9/9 of this year (damn charts kept moving so I picked that day as my cutoff for no particular reason).

I had two main questions:

1.       Is the decay on the leveraged ETFs really that bad??  Will I lose money if I buy and hang on?

2.       Is the 60m chart really the answer? 

As many on here know, I trade the 15m 13/34 EMA and have recently even switched to the 10m to try to capitalize even more gains.  I have had huge success for both even faced with the occasional whipsaw.  My original plan was to track a 15 minute chart back to the first of the year, but guess what?  Stockcharts.com does not hold the information back that far.  I think it was 30 days for the 15 minute chart and 20 for the 10 minute chart.  Also I came to learn that you can only add so many annotations to a chart and cannot add more than six total charts on one page, thus the two charts for each quarter.

I will say this about the prices on the stockcharts..  I estimated where it crossed as I did not have the time (trust me it took long enough as it was) to open a single day chart and see exactly where it would cross.  I got the spotting tool (crosshairs) to see where it crossed.  It is not exact, but very close.

Open Weekend Post 09/23-25/11

Don't forget to vote in the new poll =====>

Incarnate may deliver some special guest material for this weekend on the 13/34.

Quite the week.

Please take a look at the FX Chartapalooza Copper, Silver, Gold, Dollar, Oil, AUD, EUR, USD, JPY, CHF 

Just what type of precipice is the market sitting on at this support? See those pink rectangles? It likes to complete the run to 950 in these situations.

Monthly SPX -

A little Ron Paul debate answers for you - listen and pay attention.



Have a great weekend.

GL and GB.

Morning Post 09/23/11, SPX

Let's do a post for the indexes and keep the comments here today. the last post was a bit large to manage, but it is very important loaded with some great data.

SPX Daily - 1120 is KEY. Not much else needs to be said. At lower end of most recent range. If that goes so does everything else.

FX Chartapalooza Copper, Silver, Gold, Dollar, Oil, AUD, EUR, USD, JPY, CHF

Don't forget to vote in the new poll ======>

I don't so these all that often, bus since I am tired of talking about all the downgrades and lies about salvation, and since I have not covered most below in some time ..........

Note - all the below should scare the hell out of you (and I am not including the markets). This looks like epic collapse and no stick save option is available.

Welcome to Chartapalooza!

/dx - US dollar - Breaking out above long term down trend. After a 40% devaluation off the 2001 highs you had to figure a rally would have to occur at some point, right? How great is the fear around the globe right now? Well, if they are flocking to the greatest fiat on the planet, that would conclude your lesson on how this global economy is the greatest farce ever manufactured. $81 and $88 are the best two targets here if this improbable run can continue.

Afternoon Delight 09/22/11

Don't forget to vote in the new poll to the right  ========>

Nothing good is happening right now. As STB has speculated "they" are in trouble and their hands are tied till they can get some room with the next debt ceiling vote and get the budget issues straightened out (like...who needs a budget anyway as they approach 900 consecutive days without one).

As I was speculating back in June (when STB called for July to have the potential to be one of the worst months ever - It topped July 7th) financial blackmail is happening via market levels as "they" will tank the market to force congress into a more accommodating debt ceiling raise. This is all political.

I love it when the stars align with my prognostications.

Morning Post 09/22/11, SPX, DOW, RUT, NASDAQ, USB

New poll question to the right ===>

Do I really need to rehash the disappointment in the lack of QE (hopium), all the bank downgrades, Greece and the rest of the PIIGS, employment, China, commodities, and the lot? Let's not waste out time and enjoy the head and shoulders set ups that are the hot topic this morning. Let me show you what everyone will be looking at. Time to start thinking flash crash.


NOTE - separate posts are coming for the likes of gold, copper, oil, dollar and such.

/es - Minis SPX - Target 1031 (1040 has been STB's target since the 1370 top.)

Afternoon Delight 09/21/11, SPX, DOW, BAC, JPM, GS, MS

No need to rehash a QE that will deliver $1b a day or more in bunches and work the 30yr to control rates. It was disappointing and the market reacted as such (after a bit of digestion). STB thinks the Fed is holding back for bigger events to come and had to deliver something.

Let's hit the news quickly. Not sure how long I have been telling you to focus on the EU liquidity situation, but it has been a while now. Call this The (ZH) downgrade edition

Morning Post 09/21/11, SPX

F Day, as in FOMC Fed announcement. Let's hope the F does not stand for anything else as in Fing the people of this country even further than they have already been F'd. Around 2:15 the fireworks start.

Shanky nailed the call last Friday warning those that wanted to short over the weekend at what looked like a beautiful set up. You can not short mere days before a FOMC announcement. Today is the day we get clarity. Now will be the time we'll be able to invest with at least a bit more confidence in a sustained trend (say the next week which is about as sustained as anything gets in this market).

What do the readers of STB think the Fed will do today? Will the Fed ease was the question. (Thanks for participating in the poll.)

Yes - 10 (12%)
No  - 33 (42%)
Does it really matter - 34 (44%)

Shanky thinks the Fed can't ease till the debt ceiling issues are cleared up. This moves the November meeting to a higher probability. This has been my call since the spring and I'm sticking with it. Where STB's language has changed a bit is now the Fed can move from the "ability" to ease to the "promise" to ease at anytime. A year ago all it took was a promise in August to ramp the markets for free (or without any easing) till the November announcement.

Afternoon Delight 09/20/110, SPX, NFLX

OK, the news since 6:00 last night has been nothing but dreadful. Most all of it was covered in the comments section today. The DOW had absolutely no reason being up over 100 points other than on hopes of easing (and a little HFT spice).

Not gonna rehash the market's whacky day. Bottom line is price reversed at the April 2010 top forming a pretty double top with nice divergence - a classic and powerful turn signal. Now, the fed tomorrow can blow all of this up, but at this time it appears that TA has predicted the "sell the news" event STB and commenters were proposing earlier in the comments.

Hope you liked the updated 1m /es futures charts today. They really allow us to track support and resistance levels nicely.

SPX 30m - Pretty double top with divergences. That 13/34 ain't working so hot in this consolidation phase. Not sure anything is other than TA at this point which has missed a few news driven turns as well. So, follow the news LOL.

Morning Post 09/20/11, SPX, AAPL

Well, Looks like my warnings Friday about the market 's reaction prior to the FOMC data tomorrow (it was dangerous to short even though Friday 's close was a very tempting set up) was spot on. How can you short into the Fed with their constant risk on positioning and eternal promise of QE? It is insanity.

All eyes everywhere. The EU is in deep shit. No denying that. The biggest news was not the S&P downgrade of Italy and the Euro. Nor was it China's backstabbing of the EU. It was Siemens dumping their French bank and depositing funds directly with the ECB. After all of that one would likely conclude easily a 250 point down DOW day - nope.

If any of you understand this welfare video, please explain it to me. I swipe my EBT. Yes, America is reduced to this, free junk food. Hey, whatever makes the system work and supports corporations - it's allll goooood.

Afternoon Delight 09/19/11, SPX, AAPL

The surprise of the day -

From Zero Hedge - The Corporate Bank Run Has Started: Siemens Pulls €500 Million From A French Bank, Redeposits Direct With ECB 

"The implications of this are quite stunning, as it means that even European companies now refuse to work directly with their own banks, and somehow the ECB has become a direct lender/cash holder of only resort to private non-financial institutions!"

And the chart that shows the truth behind reality - 1m Index Comparison Chart - The financials did not do so hot today. Oh, and that would be the Fed's favorite pump buddy (the RUT) falling hard right behind)

Morning Post 09/19/11, SPX, RUT, DOW, NASDAQ, FOMC,

Greece, Greece, Greece - what else is there to talk about? Well we could entertain discussing all the issues with the rest of the PIIGS, but let's save that for another day. Bottom line is Greece, the rest of the PIIGS and their banks are glowing microcosms of the larger system and the dire consequences it is facing.

STB and its readers have known for years this was coming. The debt math (as we constantly refer to) is simply too much to overcome for Greece. I believe the global central planners are finally coming to this conclusion (not the Fed, but most of the rest I believe) and are willing to throw in the default towel. They see the money wasted playing extend and pretend. Maybe, just maybe, someone will act responsibly and allow the system to reset, check the debt, take the medicine so we can finally get on to true healing and recovery.

Sunday Evening Post

OK, here is the deal with the comments being closed on Friday's post - in order to avoid late spam (after the fact, many days after a post is up, some less desirable individuals will sneak in and post unscrupulous links that I/we do not desire), I have the comments set to "close" after 48 hours. I set that a bit tight and have moved that to three days to accommodate the weekend post.

I should be around a bit tonight as I update some charts ( I have done a bunch already) and check the futures.

SPX and the FOMC Meeting chart -

Open Weekend Post

You know the drill - Share the love and the knowledge.

STB had a great week on blogger - so good that we're gonna stay here for a while. Apparently you all like this place quite a bit. I do as well. Blogger does not support some of the stuff I need, but it is better in other ways.

Welcome to all the lurkers that came out this week in record numbers (another plus for blogger). you all did great with the links and maket info.

Make sure you voice your opinion in the new poll to the right, but you need to read this first - Forget Operation Twist: Rosenberg Says Bernanke Will Shock Everyone With What Is About To Come | ZeroHedge. And of course the euro version of the super bailout ensuring every investor all is well - It's A Bird, It's A Plane, No It's SUPEREFSF! | ZeroHedge 

You see - Hakuna Matata - no worries mate!

STB Morning Post 09/16/11, SPX

It's Friday! Lawdy it has been one heck of a week for the bulltards. I have no idea if this opex, bailout, manipulated BS run is over or not. I do know that the domestic economy is worsening and that the EU (and MENA) are in shambles. All this will end in some sort of horrific scenario. Till then we operate on hopium and playing the game of extend and pretend.

STB has been walking you thru the progression of the short term charts diverging and looking to turn. What STB has been pointing to is that the 30, 60 and daily charts were not near ready to go yet. The markets confirmed this. STB has tried to walk you thru the progression of timing, and how to appropriately work the turns (my way, more conservatively trying to find higher probability using divergences).

Now we have the 30m chart most likely confirming some sort of corrective here. This works well with the market ending opex here and the EU liquidity high about to wear off a bit. That said, this is a news driven market and it does not take much to get a violent immediate reaction in either direction. Speaking of news events, next week is the FOMC meeting. The hope of a QE announcement (a bit late for the now defunct Goldman's Alpha team) may be enough to maintain elevation.

FOMC Meeting Chart - See the previous reactions to FPMC meetings below.

Afternoon Delight - SPX

Ramp me up Scottie!

60m chart is not quite there but where it could turn. That said, the daily chart has plenty of room to run. Without a whipsaw 30m should get a MACD and TRIX bear cross in the morning. Based on the daily position this would offer no more than a corrective, but in these volatile markets (the 15m charts were the best signal for the last 4 turns) you can't trust anything. Given the jobs report and Philly Fed report this morning basically noting what an economic disaster area this nation is, nothing matters other than news (does not even have to be factual - just a rumor will do) from the euro zone at this time.

SPX 30m -

STB Morning Post 09/15/11 SPX

Not much to say this morning without rehashing the obvious, Europe in in deep trouble, America is in deep trouble and the financial system supporting it all is in even worse trouble. AS STB began to point to a few months back around the first Debt Ceiling debate in July, I believe the financial masters of the universe are finally seeing the light and may actually be tired of throwing good (well what's left of good) money after bad just to save the banks.

STB speculated that until the US debt ceiling is raised significantly and the Fed enters QE land again the euro zone would be on its own. Well, they have proven that without stealth funding from sugar daddy Bernanke they are capable of .... nothing. They can't fix the issues alone. China or the Swiss pop in for a EUR stick save every now and then, but bottom line is the EU is screwed. No, this is not Germany's fault. the former Wiemar state is proving that at least one country on this planet may have actually learned from its mistakes in the past and is not willing to repeat them.

Afternoon Delight (Evening Post) SPX, TYP

Weak effort at an AD. Will get back to full fledged AD's next week. The comment stream was getting a bit intense below. Less to scroll thru here.

SPX 60m w/ 13/34 for discussion. Or you can talk about anything you like.

STB Morning Post 09/14/11

I can't pull it out exactly when, but I remember a period this year when the DOW minis fell over 100 points 5 out of 7 nights and wanted to crash just like the last three nights and the markets subsequently rallied out of that set up. The euro zone is driving the minis down overnight and they are rallying to "hide" the underlying weakness by the open. I'm not sure why the markets have had two green days, but they have.

I don't know how the markets can be sure of anything given the underlying issues globally and here in the US. What we have learned here at STB is that what is isn't. You can't get caught up in what "should be". The markets are totally controlled. As stated here many times the markets are all they have between them and a revolution in this country. The pension system is underfunded and on the verge of collapsing. It can not afford another "dip" in the markets as asset values give the impression (or illusion as STB likes to call it) all is well.

TYP 60m Wedging Into Support?

Here is a Think or Swim 60m chart of TYP Direvion Technology Bear 3x Shares (or in English - triple short tech bear ETF). First I will say these things are notoriously dangerous and will rip holes in your portfolio where money will pour not leak out if you are not careful with them. Always have a plan for each trade and always use stops.

Black diagonals are either an ugly channel or a large rising wedge.
There is a gap from 18 to 18.64 that needs to be noted.
Note the blue falling wedge.
Red horizontal support at 21.57.

At this time it looks like the blue wedge is in play, but the black formation was there first and may be the driver here. If so, look for first support at the black support diagonal near 22.22. If that goes you have to consider the blue wedge as the driver now and any move thru the red support line at 21.57 should result in a test of the lower blue support at or near the 20.20 area.

STB Morning Post 09/13/11

Not much to say other than China saved the day yesterday (again). It seems that you can always count on intervention of some sort to save the day (till you can't). Bottom line is they will continue to stick save till they can't. As noted on STB a few months back, it appears that the power brokers in governments around the world are tired of bailing out the banks.

The bankers have bled the system and their puppet politicians as much as possible (times two). The governmental representatives have gained nothing politically as their voter base has become increasingly dissatisfied with their performance. On the other hand, you would assume that the money flowing into their coffers from these special interests is coming in at an astounding rate. Quite the trade off, sacrifice your country and political career while you go for the big cash grab. How American!

I think they are thru throwing good money after bad. I think the politicians are actually beginning to see the light. After throwing a DISCLOSED $4 trillion at the problem (not the actual $30 trillion it took to bail out the world) and getting nothing out of it, maybe, just maybe they are growing a set large enough to take on the banks and the default issues that are coming.

I hope you all like the new look old blog. STB.com is still down and I am actually considering staying here at this point till the new blog is up and running. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. What you like and don't like I need to know so it can be incorporated into the new blog. Don't tell me after the fact, you need to tell me now.

Minis this morning have made quite the recovery (not sure who came in with the big stick (or wantons filled with dollars as sellputs put it yesterday). All it takes is a rumor to move the DOW 100 points either way in minutes. Thus, this is a dangerous playground to bring your ball to. Remember to have a trading plan for each trade and to always use stops.

Minis - yellow channel support being backtested. the blue triangle backtest is just above. 1161 (price at now) is first resistance and then 1178. Those can get run thru with the right "solution" today. Inversely 1123 is the magic number for severe downside action continuation. Bottom line is the markets are consolidating at these levels and remain range bound. Note - I adjusted the channel a bit this morning to what should be a more accurate representation of the channel capturing the last low at 1138 - where it was below the support diagonal yesterday. This is an allowable thing to do and is sometimes necessary when working with charts. STB always reviews his trendline positions and if adjustments are necessary, then I make them (and you should as well).

Morning post (Still in Exile) 09/12/11

STB still down. Bottom line is that no one can figure out how, what or why the blog will not load. I was able to get in last night and do another emergency post, but it took about 30m to do what would normally take 5m. Somebody has hacked me good.

Greek default? Who could have seen this coming? LMAO, regular readers here knew it was/is coming. Actually anyone that can do simple math could have seen it coming. Apparently the Fed and the major money managers may have issues with basic math (we'll leave the president out of this conversation).

The big question is, if they do default, how will or can they contain the systemic risk among the banks?

The fiat dollar is exploding now, above the resistance channel and doing the improbable - breaking out? Of all things, for our dollar to be rallying should tell you what a joke the entire global financial system is.

I'll have to update this post and some charts as the day goes, I had a brief meeting here, a call from Inc and a call from Register.com that kept me from getting a full post up this morning.

Open Weekend Post (Exile Edition)

Not open for business yet. Will hopefully get an update before cob today. STB is really peeved.

You know the drill share the love and the knowledge -

Something huge could go down this weekend - Greece default, false flag, something big. Markest stopped on lows and at support.

15m 13/34 that we used to time the top so well last time does not suggest any of the above. That is what we can discuss this weekend. I'll update charts this weekend.

Thanks for the tremendous support and keeping things going. Super h/t to RC today. Really appreciate it.

To those affected by 9/11 STB's prayers and thought go out to you and your familes.

Morning post (in Exile) 09/09/11

How bout that stealth debt ceiling increase last night? Holy shit. Welcome to the 15 trillion level and 100% debt to GDP - the end is near folks. I do believe they could fix this problem very easily, but it would cost us our military might. You just cut the defense budget in half and poof there will be plenty of money. Sorry - not willing to do that. Would much rather starve than be the small dog on this big rock.

Hell, even if they did that they would then expand the entitlement system till the system failed again. It is all so stupid. We got a bunch of lazy mofos/parasites that have been living off the host for too long. OK, HS science class - what happens when parasites overwhelm and wear out their welcome on their host? Host dies. that is where we are as a nation. 

Day Two in Exile - 09/09/11

Well, I did get in STB last night for a bit. If you don't get timed out and have all the time in the world the page will load. Takes close to 5m to load a page, so for me to do a post last night just to get into the add a post page took close to 20m. Not acceptable, so when I got in I railed a bit on the host register.com for their severe lack of communication and failing customer service skills. It was not a full rant. Their prior good grades and my good nature have kept the STB dogs at bay - for now.

Interesting side note - I started surfing on chrome about three weeks ago. My daily infection level went to ZERO. Surfed on firefox yesterday for some reason and got 122 pieces of crap on my machine.

Let me thank each of you for making the quick transition yesterday. It is always a nerve racking thing when a blogger moves or is disrupted, wondering how many readers will get lost or simply go elsewhere. I am tickled pink at the results of the team. I bet whoever it is that is trying to bring STB down is quite peeved right now. This is their 4th hack attempt and to see the results from yesterday we all sent a big FUCK YOU to the hacker.

EMERGENCY POST 09/08/11

This is an emergency post since either host is down or I have been hacked again. 

More to come later.

Wow - got to figure my way around blogger again - Obviously i have a lot of other stuff to do this AM figuring out what's up with the new blog so this will be brief. Do me a favor and leave a comment so I know you are here.

Jobs were worse than expected. Futures dipped and immediately recovered.

1m lower VWAP got abused but was retaken in the next minute. 1m200ma 1191. VWAP 1190. Upper VWAP band 1196 - Lower 1184. About 7:45 minis broke back below the VWAP. I would expect it to stay there for the rest of the day.

Yesterday STB gave the 15m 13/34 as a sell - looks like it will work. This was a TA sell and not a 13/34 cross. This is possibly only a scalp or corrective move before more strength so be careful trading it.