Happy Halloween STB! Spooky times right now and getting worse. Welcome back from the Sandy induced holiday. I hope everyone out there made it thru the storm OK.
I read a spooky post this morning on ZH, Only Global Banks Will Benefit From A Cyber-Attack On The U.S. that sounds a lot like something you would read here and fits (yet another) with my external or exogenous "event" theme. "Globalists need a macro-crisis, a world-wide catastrophe, in order to present their “global solution” to the desperate masses. This solution will invariably include more dominance for them, and less freedom for us. A global crisis can also be used to manipulate various cultures to forget concerns of sovereignty and think in terms of one-world action." This runs parallel to my UFO theme I have been presenting.
Wednesday, October 31, 2012
Tuesday, October 30, 2012
Morning Charts 10/30/12 SPX /ES (UFO's Again)
Halloween Eve! For some reason I'm not as jacked up about the spooky event as I usually am. Did anyone catch the moon last night and this morning? Perfect for the season. I'm sort of in the spirit, but not raging as usual. The good news is that on Thursday I can start watching Xmas videos. That is my official beginning of THE season which is always too short and seems to lose more reverence every year. Remember, "What if Christmas, he thought, doesn't come from a store. What if Christmas, perhaps, means a little bit more." Much more of that to come on the next couple of months.
As for the markets it seems that Xmas is a year round event now that just keeps on delivering everyone's favorite gift, cold hard cash "nickles, nickles, nickles". Well, perhaps Japan is teaching us that too much of a good thing can become an issue. I suggest you read When ¥11 Trillion Is Not Enough: Japan's QE 9 Disappoints, Halflife Zero, Time For QE 10. "Japan just came up with a brand new New Normal concept: tightening through easing, when its ¥11 trillion intervention proved to be woefully insufficient for a market addicted to ever more liquidity injections." Did you catch the number following that QE? Like a bad movie series (Halloween?) that just keeps on going downhill.
As for the markets it seems that Xmas is a year round event now that just keeps on delivering everyone's favorite gift, cold hard cash "nickles, nickles, nickles". Well, perhaps Japan is teaching us that too much of a good thing can become an issue. I suggest you read When ¥11 Trillion Is Not Enough: Japan's QE 9 Disappoints, Halflife Zero, Time For QE 10. "Japan just came up with a brand new New Normal concept: tightening through easing, when its ¥11 trillion intervention proved to be woefully insufficient for a market addicted to ever more liquidity injections." Did you catch the number following that QE? Like a bad movie series (Halloween?) that just keeps on going downhill.
Monday, October 29, 2012
Morning Charts 10/29/12 SPX /ES
Let's keep it simple this morning since the store is closed.
Minis 30m - Minis still holding on to big blue (barely). For those that do not know, big blue is the old upper markets resistance off the '07 and the top back in March. Futures were down.
Not much to report on the news today. Sandy and the elections dominating everything.
Best wishes go out to those in Sandy's way. Should be a no biggie tropical storm, but you never know. The last time y'all got hit with one of these it totally sucked for a week or more. Hope this turns out much better this time.
GL and GB!
Minis 30m - Minis still holding on to big blue (barely). For those that do not know, big blue is the old upper markets resistance off the '07 and the top back in March. Futures were down.
Not much to report on the news today. Sandy and the elections dominating everything.
Best wishes go out to those in Sandy's way. Should be a no biggie tropical storm, but you never know. The last time y'all got hit with one of these it totally sucked for a week or more. Hope this turns out much better this time.
GL and GB!
Friday, October 26, 2012
Open Weekend Post 10/27-28/12 - Start Thinking About UFO's
You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.
What can we say about the markets here? Other than backtesting busted major market upper resistance and holding on by the skin of its teeth after the AAPL debacle, the Fed and Treasury are doing all they can to salvage the post QE announcement sell the news event. Everything still points down here technically. We're at a serious inflection point. As noted almost daily, all we need is a catalyst.
The cat is out if the bag, the economy is crumbling, the EU is on the verge of implosion (note the Germany/Greece situation due Sunday that Greece can not possibly meet for the umpteenth time) and the government data can no longer be manipulated to anyone's satisfaction. We're a little more than a week from the most irrelevant presidential election in history. The government is bought and paid for via special interest groups that they serve and protect at our expense. Earnings for Q3 and projections for Q4 all prove that every effort the ruling elite have done to save us have only accomplished making the rich richer and the poor even poorer. We're nearing the end.
Other than the obvious distractions our governments will use to turn our attention us from reality, I have very seriously (as mentioned here in the past) believe we are close to hearing the (to some) unthinkable truth that UFOs are real. Why do I come at you with this this weekend? Cause you need time to reflect and think about what will their disaster plan include? What can they use other than war or other social distractions to redirect our focus where they can continue to do their dirty work in the dark? When the markets crash, what can they throw at us that will be so amazing that we all will stop. What else could dominate the news to a point that it would possibly demote a global financial crisis to the second page? What can they use that is so large they can pull the ultimate trump card and declare in the name of global safety all debts void and null?
I personally believe we are not alone. Being an analyst and a Christian there are two simple things that lead me to believe this beyond all the evidence that currently exists. First, it is impossible to think that among the billions of galaxies each containing billions of stars that we could be alone. Second, why would God waste all that talent on just us?
To those that do not believe, I ask that you take the time to view this video of the Disclosure project from 2006. It is the ultimate collection of professional testimony from the most credible professional witnesses ever assembled in one room. Their stories are real and can all be documented.
It is time to start thinking about what happens after the collapse and what will the government's actions be (other than FEMA Camps and Martial Law used to quell the coming massive social unrest). If you think I'm nuts that's cool. Form your own opinion. Just start thinking about what's coming.
As usual you are implored to start prepping. I need to warn you that this is now considered a terrorist act. Yes, to prepare for your own personal safety and survival can get you locked up these days (or at a minimum stranded at an airport in Hawaii). Don't believe me? Maybe you should read Doomsday Preppers Will Be Treated As Terrorists. What a great place the nanny state is to live in.
Enjoy your weekend.
GL and GB!
What can we say about the markets here? Other than backtesting busted major market upper resistance and holding on by the skin of its teeth after the AAPL debacle, the Fed and Treasury are doing all they can to salvage the post QE announcement sell the news event. Everything still points down here technically. We're at a serious inflection point. As noted almost daily, all we need is a catalyst.
The cat is out if the bag, the economy is crumbling, the EU is on the verge of implosion (note the Germany/Greece situation due Sunday that Greece can not possibly meet for the umpteenth time) and the government data can no longer be manipulated to anyone's satisfaction. We're a little more than a week from the most irrelevant presidential election in history. The government is bought and paid for via special interest groups that they serve and protect at our expense. Earnings for Q3 and projections for Q4 all prove that every effort the ruling elite have done to save us have only accomplished making the rich richer and the poor even poorer. We're nearing the end.
Other than the obvious distractions our governments will use to turn our attention us from reality, I have very seriously (as mentioned here in the past) believe we are close to hearing the (to some) unthinkable truth that UFOs are real. Why do I come at you with this this weekend? Cause you need time to reflect and think about what will their disaster plan include? What can they use other than war or other social distractions to redirect our focus where they can continue to do their dirty work in the dark? When the markets crash, what can they throw at us that will be so amazing that we all will stop. What else could dominate the news to a point that it would possibly demote a global financial crisis to the second page? What can they use that is so large they can pull the ultimate trump card and declare in the name of global safety all debts void and null?
I personally believe we are not alone. Being an analyst and a Christian there are two simple things that lead me to believe this beyond all the evidence that currently exists. First, it is impossible to think that among the billions of galaxies each containing billions of stars that we could be alone. Second, why would God waste all that talent on just us?
To those that do not believe, I ask that you take the time to view this video of the Disclosure project from 2006. It is the ultimate collection of professional testimony from the most credible professional witnesses ever assembled in one room. Their stories are real and can all be documented.
It is time to start thinking about what happens after the collapse and what will the government's actions be (other than FEMA Camps and Martial Law used to quell the coming massive social unrest). If you think I'm nuts that's cool. Form your own opinion. Just start thinking about what's coming.
As usual you are implored to start prepping. I need to warn you that this is now considered a terrorist act. Yes, to prepare for your own personal safety and survival can get you locked up these days (or at a minimum stranded at an airport in Hawaii). Don't believe me? Maybe you should read Doomsday Preppers Will Be Treated As Terrorists. What a great place the nanny state is to live in.
Enjoy your weekend.
GL and GB!
Morning Charts 10/26/12 SPX /es
David Einhorn Explains How Ben Bernanke Is Destroying America is a wonderful must read post for each of you over on ZH. Hang in there, we'll get to the AAPL debacle later, this stuff is far more important. What you need to be concerned with is how the Fed is destroying America.
Most here realize the death spiral we're in. Most here know that we traverse the financial cliff of the abyss every waking moment and remain one slip from a Baumgartner to the fiery pits of hell. Without easing to save the banks we would have entered the inferno back in 2009. Since then nothing has improved and the global economic and financial systems have become more reliant on the Fed's tit than ever.
"Apparently, anything less than a $40 billion per month subscription order for MBS is now considered ‘tightening’. He’s (Bernanke) letting us know that what once looked like a purchasing spree of unimaginable proportions is now just the monthly budget." They have created a monster. Like a typical American spoiled, sugar and red dye jacked up, unruly, adderall junkie child markets expect their morning and evening dose of stimulus "or else" so does the market. It is truly an addicted state where the addict must have his fix or all hell will break loose.
We always have the Fed and the government to rely on right? Sadly this is wrong as well. No matter what, in order to protect their power, no matter the cost to the country, they will spin the BS from the BLS and use the controlled state media (the MSM) to paint whatever picture they want you to see, real or not. Heck read this BS that was just released this morning, Q3 GDP Estimate Beats Expectations As Government "Consumption" Soars. "Sure enough, the preliminary look at Q3 GDP just came out and "beat" expectations of a 1.8% print, with a 2.0% reading (or just in line with stall speed, a number which previously has been indicative of recessions). So far so good, but as with every other pre-election economic data point out of the government, one has to look behind the headline to get the true picture. And the details are, as expected, ugly." Read that post. What a joke our system has become!
What has to happen to break this cycle? Well, over the past year STB has addressed Germany as the key player in the EU's survival game. Well, as noted, Germany's continued unwillingness to go along with the global cabal's 'bailout at any cost' Keynesian meme is starting to unravel the plans of the banking elite. "Recall that this was precisely the dilemma before the Bundesbank as we explained yesterday, when it did what it had full right to do openly, yet did secretly, when it pulled its gold inventory from London: it implicitly confirmed it was no longer a willing participant of the NWO, and no longer is willing to sacrifice its sovereign independence at the altar of Keynesianism, and monetary theory." (and don't let that brief mention of the NWO go unnoticed).
This my friends is the type of external or 'exogenous' event I have called for since the beginning of the blog that can finally end this nightmare. Most long term readers know that over three years ago when I started STB I had some crazy notions about the financial crisis. Sadly, most have come true and the few that are left appear to remain right on track (except for my massive deflation to hyperinflation call which still has a chance). My main long term call was that it would take an external event to rip control from the Fed to end this financial farce.
Most here know I love it when the experts come to where I have been for years in my theories, start to discuss my long or near term targets and use terminology I have been on for years now. "Sooner or later, we will enter another recession. It could come from normal cyclicality, or it could come from an exogenous shock. Either way, when it comes, it is very likely we will enter it prior to the Fed having ‘normalized’ monetary policy, and we’ll have a large fiscal deficit to boot." I like that 'exogenous shock' part.
So, is Germany my exogenous event catalyst? I think it could be. It appears that the Bundesbank is not willing to go all Wiemar again, and may be the only financial institution that is willing to actually learn from history. Germany appears to be the only group with any sort of clue as to what reality really is. They get it that throwing good money after bad (see Greece deadline Sunday evening) is not a good idea. I suggest we all follow Germany's lead here, cause when they finally cut bait, it will be the end of this Keynesian nightmare.
As for AAPL, look at it this way, no one is going to sell, cause when that floodgate opens everything goes. Literally everyone owns AAPL on massive leverage. When this trick fails, the boom from the implosion will be heard galaxies away. The last bastion of iEverything dominating discretionary consumerspending addiction is all there is left of the capitalist model. Thus the question must be asked, has saturation finally been achieved and is the cycle topping? I believe it is and the fairy tale is coming to an end. As for last night's price action after the miss, only one way to describe it, Potteriffic!
AAPL long term - if this overbought overthrow is not clear to you then you need to have your head examined. See that gap (gray rectangle) around $430? HA! and that just gets AAPL back into the LT wedge that targets that lower blue diagonal near $300. Yes, that is coming folks, if not worse. It is only a matter of time now. And some thought is would never happen to MSFT either. Heck, at least MSFT drives everything we touch. AAPL is basically a toy.
Minis 60m - This chart says a bounce will happen off round level support. Big Blue has barely held for now and a retracement or backtest of green (HnS neckline target 1330) near 1417 or pink wedge support near 1430 are possible. If 00 goes, 1374 will be the next stop and is where all the sell triggers lie I am guessing.
Things look really dire right here. If you saw all the SPX charts I put up yesterday you should agree. I really don't think they can support the farce much longer and if they cut Greece loose Sunday, a 12 handle will be in order much sooner than later.
As for the other charts, see yesterday's post and look below for timely updates on the minis.
Have a good weekend and thanks for your continued support of STB.
GL and GB!
Most here know I love it when the experts come to where I have been for years in my theories, start to discuss my long or near term targets and use terminology I have been on for years now. "Sooner or later, we will enter another recession. It could come from normal cyclicality, or it could come from an exogenous shock. Either way, when it comes, it is very likely we will enter it prior to the Fed having ‘normalized’ monetary policy, and we’ll have a large fiscal deficit to boot." I like that 'exogenous shock' part.
So, is Germany my exogenous event catalyst? I think it could be. It appears that the Bundesbank is not willing to go all Wiemar again, and may be the only financial institution that is willing to actually learn from history. Germany appears to be the only group with any sort of clue as to what reality really is. They get it that throwing good money after bad (see Greece deadline Sunday evening) is not a good idea. I suggest we all follow Germany's lead here, cause when they finally cut bait, it will be the end of this Keynesian nightmare.
As for AAPL, look at it this way, no one is going to sell, cause when that floodgate opens everything goes. Literally everyone owns AAPL on massive leverage. When this trick fails, the boom from the implosion will be heard galaxies away. The last bastion of iEverything dominating discretionary consumer
AAPL long term - if this overbought overthrow is not clear to you then you need to have your head examined. See that gap (gray rectangle) around $430? HA! and that just gets AAPL back into the LT wedge that targets that lower blue diagonal near $300. Yes, that is coming folks, if not worse. It is only a matter of time now. And some thought is would never happen to MSFT either. Heck, at least MSFT drives everything we touch. AAPL is basically a toy.
Minis 60m - This chart says a bounce will happen off round level support. Big Blue has barely held for now and a retracement or backtest of green (HnS neckline target 1330) near 1417 or pink wedge support near 1430 are possible. If 00 goes, 1374 will be the next stop and is where all the sell triggers lie I am guessing.
Things look really dire right here. If you saw all the SPX charts I put up yesterday you should agree. I really don't think they can support the farce much longer and if they cut Greece loose Sunday, a 12 handle will be in order much sooner than later.
As for the other charts, see yesterday's post and look below for timely updates on the minis.
Have a good weekend and thanks for your continued support of STB.
GL and GB!
Thursday, October 25, 2012
Morning Charts 10/25/12 SPX /ES
Let's look at some charts today -
Daily SPX - Other than some indicators nearing their lower ranges there are no real divergences being set indicating a turnaround yet. First key support busted and now price is battling with the second major support point. Lower blue support or 1374 should be the target for this reversal. Round level 1400 is just above the 38% retracement off the June low run, so after a 5% fall this would not be a bad spot for some sort of corrective or breather. If stops are triggered below 1400 it could get pretty ugly. For those of you into the fractal/timing thingy I suggest you look at the dire timing of the charts in this post.
Daily SPX - Other than some indicators nearing their lower ranges there are no real divergences being set indicating a turnaround yet. First key support busted and now price is battling with the second major support point. Lower blue support or 1374 should be the target for this reversal. Round level 1400 is just above the 38% retracement off the June low run, so after a 5% fall this would not be a bad spot for some sort of corrective or breather. If stops are triggered below 1400 it could get pretty ugly. For those of you into the fractal/timing thingy I suggest you look at the dire timing of the charts in this post.
Wednesday, October 24, 2012
Morning Charts 10/24/12 SPX /ES
Right out of the pages of Hilsenrath, the drifting market needs a savior and after the QE3 announcement when there is no more hope to speculate on (which is what this market appears to like best) you get Greece. Really? Greece? Man this market is starved for anything that confirms the extend and pretend hopium trade will go till infinity.
ZH has Total Confusion: Greece Says Troika Agreement Reached, Germany Says "Nein" and CNBS delivers Greece Gets 2 More Years to Meet Bailout Targets. Do you notice any difference between the digital dickweed's post and the MSM propagandist cheerleading post titles? Enough said there.
ZH has Total Confusion: Greece Says Troika Agreement Reached, Germany Says "Nein" and CNBS delivers Greece Gets 2 More Years to Meet Bailout Targets. Do you notice any difference between the digital dickweed's post and the MSM propagandist cheerleading post titles? Enough said there.
Tuesday, October 23, 2012
Morning Charts 10/23/12 SPX /ES
Once the Fed eased things got a bit dull on the rumor/news front. In yet another funny post from CNBS (where strange post titles usually mislead you to even stranger posts), you get the question, After QE3, Can the Fed Excite Markets This Week? This week? LMAO.
Let me help the government employees at CNBS and explain this where everyone can understand. Sugar daddy (Bernanke) gave the prostitutes (the market/government) their fix, but promises there is plenty more where that came from. In the mean time the prostitute does not give a shit cause she got what she needed and is high as hell. Not until she comes down and then does a little more work will Uncle Benny show up with another hit.
Monday, October 22, 2012
Morning Charts 10/20/12 SPX /ES
What are you supposed to do on debate days? What have the last two delivered for potus? Just saying.
Another European summit down and again nothing to show for the efforts. Are these guys just hanging out and pulling a DSK or a US Secret Service working with the help more than doing business? Heck, I know which would be more productive. When the ship is sinking and you can't possibly plug all the holes would you blame them?
Frustrated? On one hand you get Q3 Earnings Season To Date Summary: Ugly... And Getting Worse with, "Roughly one third of the S&P has reported earnings so far, with another third reporting in the next five days and almighty AAPL on deck Thursday evening, and if there is one word to describe what has happened so far, that word would be "ugly." The same word would be used to describe how Q4 is shaping up to be." STB has been waiting patiently on AAPL for a few weeks now. Thursday will be D Day.
Another European summit down and again nothing to show for the efforts. Are these guys just hanging out and pulling a DSK or a US Secret Service working with the help more than doing business? Heck, I know which would be more productive. When the ship is sinking and you can't possibly plug all the holes would you blame them?
Frustrated? On one hand you get Q3 Earnings Season To Date Summary: Ugly... And Getting Worse with, "Roughly one third of the S&P has reported earnings so far, with another third reporting in the next five days and almighty AAPL on deck Thursday evening, and if there is one word to describe what has happened so far, that word would be "ugly." The same word would be used to describe how Q4 is shaping up to be." STB has been waiting patiently on AAPL for a few weeks now. Thursday will be D Day.
Friday, October 19, 2012
Open Weekend Post 10/20-21/12
You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.
Markets look bleak right now, but have no fear QE and Potter are here! Well, they were. Maybe they took Friday off?
VIX - Looks like we're bout to get a possible near term scare, but the real fear lies when the falling blue diagonal comes into play next year or sooner.
If you do not know about Bayou Corne, please watch this video. This is some really freaky stuff.
And how about a little throwback STB. From the ole weekend video days - light up a fattie and enjoy. Nothing like happy little foothills in your paintings.
Thanks for another great week on the blog.
Have a good weekend.
GL and GB!
Markets look bleak right now, but have no fear QE and Potter are here! Well, they were. Maybe they took Friday off?
VIX - Looks like we're bout to get a possible near term scare, but the real fear lies when the falling blue diagonal comes into play next year or sooner.
If you do not know about Bayou Corne, please watch this video. This is some really freaky stuff.
And how about a little throwback STB. From the ole weekend video days - light up a fattie and enjoy. Nothing like happy little foothills in your paintings.
Thanks for another great week on the blog.
Have a good weekend.
GL and GB!
Morning Charts 10/19/12 SPX /ES
Not much to say this morning. It is a bit distressing when staring down a rather disappointing earnings season with our debt load and economic issues all the while the stock market is making a triple top at multi-year highs like there are no consequences for anything. Mind blowing stuff this central planning socialist stuff.
I suggest you take a gander at Guest Post: Should Central Banks Cancel Government Debt? "Of course the proposal was not really meant to be taken serious: rather, it was meant to highlight the absurdities of the modern-day monetary system. Paul himself pointed out in subsequent interviews that the proposal would naturally never be adopted. In short, it was essentially an educational foray on his part - he wanted to encourage people to think. " Think? Really? I thought that was one of the recent additions to the terrorist profiling list? Joke or not, I believe some form of forgiveness will come in the future as the central planners further box themselves into a fiscal corner.
I suggest you take a gander at Guest Post: Should Central Banks Cancel Government Debt? "Of course the proposal was not really meant to be taken serious: rather, it was meant to highlight the absurdities of the modern-day monetary system. Paul himself pointed out in subsequent interviews that the proposal would naturally never be adopted. In short, it was essentially an educational foray on his part - he wanted to encourage people to think. " Think? Really? I thought that was one of the recent additions to the terrorist profiling list? Joke or not, I believe some form of forgiveness will come in the future as the central planners further box themselves into a fiscal corner.
Thursday, October 18, 2012
Morning Charts 10/18/12 SPX /ES
Things are not good. Well, we know that, but today seems to be one of those days where the news flow is a tad more dire than normal. Of course this means Potter and his crew of fat thumbed flunkies will be riding high and omnipresent over the markets, so there is no need to fear if you are a bulltard. It is to bad they neutered Hilsenrath when they QE'd again. Boy would today would have been a perfect day to roll him out with another well timed rumor.
Jobs, not good - "What is however worse, is that it is becoming increasingly clear that nobody at the DOL knows what is actually going on, and numbers are simply picked out of thin air." Now, I could literally implode all over this report, but it is it really worth my time or yours to address what we all know is a total crock?
And how about those student loans? "The nation’s soaring student debt — which recently topped $1 trillion — has sparked debate over whether a college education is worth the price in the current job market. But the study noted that unemployment for young workers with only a high school education is more than twice the rate of their college-educated counterparts."
Jobs, not good - "What is however worse, is that it is becoming increasingly clear that nobody at the DOL knows what is actually going on, and numbers are simply picked out of thin air." Now, I could literally implode all over this report, but it is it really worth my time or yours to address what we all know is a total crock?
And how about those student loans? "The nation’s soaring student debt — which recently topped $1 trillion — has sparked debate over whether a college education is worth the price in the current job market. But the study noted that unemployment for young workers with only a high school education is more than twice the rate of their college-educated counterparts."
Wednesday, October 17, 2012
Morning Charts 10/17/12 SPX /ES
I can't bring myself to even address BAC and the rest of the banks earnings BS. If I could treat loan loss reserves like that on my balance sheet and get away with it I would not give a dam about how I ran my business one bit. As for INTC, my favorite earnings bitch, here they go again lowering the hurdle into QE where price will not be damaged and they have created an easier beat in the future (rinse/repeat). Amazing how that trick pony has not broken a leg yet.
Not much else to really go off on this morning. The post office may finally be on its last leg. Postal Service Hits Borrowing Cap for First Time - "The U.S. Postal Service in September hit its $15 billion borrowing limit from the U.S. Treasury for the first time in its history, leaving the agency with only the revenue it takes in from selling stamps, shipping and other services to cover its operating costs." and to that I say, good luck.
Not much else to really go off on this morning. The post office may finally be on its last leg. Postal Service Hits Borrowing Cap for First Time - "The U.S. Postal Service in September hit its $15 billion borrowing limit from the U.S. Treasury for the first time in its history, leaving the agency with only the revenue it takes in from selling stamps, shipping and other services to cover its operating costs." and to that I say, good luck.
Tuesday, October 16, 2012
Morning Charts 10/16/12 SPX /ES Retirement Plan Confiscation
Just a quick reminder of what I believe is one of the major issues of the day and a primary reason they are fighting so hard to save the markets (even at these lofty levels) - "The largest 100 public pension funds have around $1.2 trillion of unfunded liabilities, about $300 billion above the nearly $900 billion they reported themselves, according to a new actuarial study to be released on Monday." That is from Reuters' Exclusive: Study shows $1.2 trillion gap for public pensions.
Do you remember when a billion was a big deal just a few short years ago? Now we toss out trillion like it is some common thing. STB has harped and warned for years now that this is one of the biggest and least talked about issues around. STB holds the unquivering belief that all retirement plans will be confiscated by the government before this nightmare ends. Some may remember Afternoon Delight 03/28/12 - Your Retirement Funds Will Be Confiscated Eventually.
Do you remember when a billion was a big deal just a few short years ago? Now we toss out trillion like it is some common thing. STB has harped and warned for years now that this is one of the biggest and least talked about issues around. STB holds the unquivering belief that all retirement plans will be confiscated by the government before this nightmare ends. Some may remember Afternoon Delight 03/28/12 - Your Retirement Funds Will Be Confiscated Eventually.
Monday, October 15, 2012
Morning Charts 10/15/12 SPX /ES
Remember good is good and bad is better. Right now we're dealing with both. The unexplainable continues as, "Perhaps the most notable event in the quiet trading session so far has been the surge in 10 year Greek debt whose yield has tumbled to post-restructuring lows". Seriously? What sort of guarantees can be possibly provided that would ensure safety in any sort of investment in Greek debt? The desperation of the investment banks and the tsunami of money that flows from hot spot to hot spot searching for the quickest gains possible is absolutely astounding and most likely unprecedented in historical perspectives. This is not your father's market folks.
Outside of manipulated earnings that will hold their own till AAPL reports, the main thing to focus on today (as funny as this may sound) are the technicals. The charts are actually pertinent again. The charts have been literally meaningless or pointless since the Draghi ramp and my call on the minute for unprecedented market manipulation on August 02.
Outside of manipulated earnings that will hold their own till AAPL reports, the main thing to focus on today (as funny as this may sound) are the technicals. The charts are actually pertinent again. The charts have been literally meaningless or pointless since the Draghi ramp and my call on the minute for unprecedented market manipulation on August 02.
Friday, October 12, 2012
Open Weekend Post 10/13-14/12
You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.
Not much to say as the market has snuck down to major support diagonal, the 50dma and sits just above the 1422 top s/r. It appears that the divergences on the Daily SPX chart I have been showing all week may be about to take their toll. If this level goes, then we may have more than the 1400 support level to worry about. If that is so, THE major top may be set. That is something that we all must consider at this point given the blue wedge overthrow, the double top and the blow off top. If this goes lower blue wedge diagonal support should be in play and possibly 1374 level which I deem with 1260 as possibly the last major support levels before the end.
Have a great weekend!
GL and GB!
Not much to say as the market has snuck down to major support diagonal, the 50dma and sits just above the 1422 top s/r. It appears that the divergences on the Daily SPX chart I have been showing all week may be about to take their toll. If this level goes, then we may have more than the 1400 support level to worry about. If that is so, THE major top may be set. That is something that we all must consider at this point given the blue wedge overthrow, the double top and the blow off top. If this goes lower blue wedge diagonal support should be in play and possibly 1374 level which I deem with 1260 as possibly the last major support levels before the end.
Have a great weekend!
GL and GB!
Morning Charts 10/12/12 SPX /ES
You gotta look forward to the banks reporting earnings each quarter these days. Kinda like a Monty Python skit. Where with MP the brilliance lies in the coy and smug humor, the humor brilliance in the bank's earnings lies in the creative and original methods they come up with each quarter to make seemingly impossible beats over and over again against all odds. "Just how JPM can justify such a major contribution to earnings coming from loan losses when NPLs have soared is unclear to anyone with a frontal lobe." is how TD at Zero Hedge puts it. I guess it is the season for black magic, and you should expect more from the remaining banks this (and next and next ...) earnings season.
When they changed the accounting rules in 2008 the government opened the door to all sorts of earnings shenanigans, and they rushed right thru. Do 20% Of Firms Cheat On Earnings? managed to scratch the surface of reality. "To wit, Bloomberg notes a recent paper (below) that finds 20% of CFOs will "manage earnings to misrepresent economic performance" with 93.5% admitting it is to influence the stock price. 'Red flag's include EPS inconsistent with cash-flows, unusual accruals, or an industry outlier. Amid pressure to maintain stock prices (and keep a career going), 60% of earnings 'management' is to increase income and of course 66% of CFOs hope for fewer accounting rules going forward." Note that "fewer accounting rules" part. I discuss this virtually every earnings season. And some wonder why at earnings season I cocoon on calling the markets.
When CNBS starts printing posts like Why Jobless Claims May Not Be as Good as Market Thinks then things must be starting to crumble. When the establishment's major financial mouthpiece is allowed to even address such a topic, you know someone at the top is losing a bit of control.
Thursday, October 11, 2012
Morning Charts 10/11/12 SPX /ES
I think everything I wanted to say this morning can be found concisely put in The Bump In The Night. "Then the money requested by Cyprus will be nowhere what is needed if Greece returns to the Drachma as the Cypriot economy, already banged by the Greek Public Sector Involvement, will be forced to its knees as the tragedy plays itself out in Greece. Then we have the “Big Bang,” which is Spain, whom Germany contends does not need any money, which is about an accurate a statement as Wichita, Kansas can be found in Bulgaria. Spain is reeling; calls for secession, banks that are insolvent and held together by paperclips and scotch tape, regional debt that is fifty percent of the country’s total and now the downgrade by S&P with one by Moodys placing them into junk and out of the major European Indexes which can be expected shortly. “Dead man walking” would be the accurate phrase. I will tell you; when there is no place left to run and no place left to hide then it is “tag and you are it” and Europe is now days away from getting tagged."
Wednesday, October 10, 2012
Morning Charts 10/10/12 SPX /ES
Let's start today with the great news European Banks Need To Sell Up $4.5 Trillion In Assets In Next 14 Months, IMF Warns. Now I'm not sure why they put the 'warns' part in there. Insolvent banks and governments selling anything these days does not seem to be a real problem. There are not any long or short term consequences when you control interest rates and the printing presses (that is if you live in the land of unicorns and fairy tales). What's strange to me is it appears that hints of reality are starting to show up in some of these economic reports. These sort of actions would be against the establishment and cartel mandates. How are they allowed to print such atrocities?
The AA beat was a joke. I'll write more on my thoughts of earnings season later this week and include more analysis. Initial thoughts are that it will be a nightmare waiting on AAPL to report as everything else is apparently inconsequential and little more than noise.
Not much else to say. Bit of a writers cramp this morning.
Way off topic, but if true every banker. politician and government worker should be very concerned about this. Afterlife exists says top brain surgeon. Either this dude needed a good story to sell some books or he's seen something. This story was not as good as the post's title.
Daily SPX - Uh, divergences and a large wedge overthrow. They are literally hanging on by the skin of their teeth here.
Minis 5m - Stop! Potter time. Yesterday I showed yellow diag support and when that cracked I said 1432 would be the next stop. Well here we are.
Minis 60m - See the bottom right corner where green and pink meet? Possible STB point there at 1410 tonight. I've been saying little more than yellow to blue for a couple of weeks now. Here we are back at 32 support. If this goes 1410 is first target then 1400. 1468 then 1502 are upper resistance.
Follow the Fed. Scalp and get out. STB simply waiting on a catalyst to fracture the market which will lead to my "event" We're getting closer every day. Let the trade come to you. Do not force anything. The charts are ready, but we all know nothing happens that the Fed does not control, and this is a prime spot for the BTFD crowd to come in scooping up some AAPL and other "oversold" morsels. I prefer down here as things appear to be spinning out of control and (what I perceive, not the government) as waning sentiment is taking over. Just be careful and guard those trades carefully.
GL and GB!
The AA beat was a joke. I'll write more on my thoughts of earnings season later this week and include more analysis. Initial thoughts are that it will be a nightmare waiting on AAPL to report as everything else is apparently inconsequential and little more than noise.
Not much else to say. Bit of a writers cramp this morning.
Way off topic, but if true every banker. politician and government worker should be very concerned about this. Afterlife exists says top brain surgeon. Either this dude needed a good story to sell some books or he's seen something. This story was not as good as the post's title.
Daily SPX - Uh, divergences and a large wedge overthrow. They are literally hanging on by the skin of their teeth here.
Minis 5m - Stop! Potter time. Yesterday I showed yellow diag support and when that cracked I said 1432 would be the next stop. Well here we are.
Minis 60m - See the bottom right corner where green and pink meet? Possible STB point there at 1410 tonight. I've been saying little more than yellow to blue for a couple of weeks now. Here we are back at 32 support. If this goes 1410 is first target then 1400. 1468 then 1502 are upper resistance.
Follow the Fed. Scalp and get out. STB simply waiting on a catalyst to fracture the market which will lead to my "event" We're getting closer every day. Let the trade come to you. Do not force anything. The charts are ready, but we all know nothing happens that the Fed does not control, and this is a prime spot for the BTFD crowd to come in scooping up some AAPL and other "oversold" morsels. I prefer down here as things appear to be spinning out of control and (what I perceive, not the government) as waning sentiment is taking over. Just be careful and guard those trades carefully.
GL and GB!
Tuesday, October 9, 2012
Morning Charts 10/09/12 SPX /ES
The joke du jour for STB is Moody's Slaps ESM With Negative Outlook On Day Of Its Official Launch. Yes, even out of the gates the newest and brightest bailout package is presumably doomed from the start by one of the ratings agencies. How is it that the crooked and on the take rating agencies can go against the establishment? I have no clue. Maybe someone at Moody's found Jesus in a closet or something. Well, Judas maybe, their AAA with negative outlook is still a complete farce, but at least they are willing to shed a bit of light on reality.
Staying with the farce theme today, for those that don't believe that the markets are rigged and that liquidity is at best a ghost - "A single mysterious computer program that placed orders — and then subsequently canceled them — made up 4 percent of all quote traffic in the U.S. stock market last week, according to the top tracker of high-frequency trading activity. The motive of the algorithm is still unclear." Now regular STB readers know all too well about this action and this news is no surprise to them, but for new readers, you need to know that this has been happening for years and is really just old news.
Staying with the farce theme today, for those that don't believe that the markets are rigged and that liquidity is at best a ghost - "A single mysterious computer program that placed orders — and then subsequently canceled them — made up 4 percent of all quote traffic in the U.S. stock market last week, according to the top tracker of high-frequency trading activity. The motive of the algorithm is still unclear." Now regular STB readers know all too well about this action and this news is no surprise to them, but for new readers, you need to know that this has been happening for years and is really just old news.
Monday, October 8, 2012
Morning Charts 10/08/12 SPX /ES
CBO CONFIRMS FOURTH CONSECUTIVE YEAR OF TRILLION-DOLLAR DEFICITS UNDER OBAMA. I did not all cap that post title, that is the way it came. If it wasn't I would have all cap'd it myself. It is a point that needs to be emphasized. "The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) reported on Friday that the budget deficit for 2012 was $1.1 trillion and was only $200 billion less than 2011's deficit because Oct.1, 2011 fell on a weekend."
What can we say about this audacity that we have not been addressing over the past three years here at STB? Absolutely nothing. Three years of bitching and moaning and truth telling have in a way gotten old. I'm tired of waking up day after day and reporting the same thing over and over and over for years. The outrageousness of it all is beyond comprehension.
To sit here day after day and watch our future be sold out from under us so the TBTF's can beglorified saved and the entitlement class can be exponentially expanded at the expense of current and future generations is horrifying. Watching a government out of control serving the special interests over their subjects the people who should control the overall situation is astounding.
What can we say about this audacity that we have not been addressing over the past three years here at STB? Absolutely nothing. Three years of bitching and moaning and truth telling have in a way gotten old. I'm tired of waking up day after day and reporting the same thing over and over and over for years. The outrageousness of it all is beyond comprehension.
To sit here day after day and watch our future be sold out from under us so the TBTF's can be
Friday, October 5, 2012
Open Weekend Post 10/06-07/12
You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.
Well, how else should a week of more lies end but on the most unprecedented lie yet. If you have no clue what I am talking about you must have been on Mars when the employment lie was released on Friday morning.
I suggest you read Allen's thoughts on the jobs numbers from Friday, "I agree with former GE CEO Jack Welch, Chicago style politics is at work here. Somehow by manipulation of data we are all of a sudden below 8 percent unemployment, a month from the Presidential election. This is Orwellian to say the least and representative of Saul Alinsky tactics from the book "Rules for Radicals"- a must read for all who want to know how the left strategize . Trust the Obama administration? Sure, and the spontaneous reaction to a video caused the death of our Ambassador......and pigs fly." Tea Party Congressman Allen West: Jack Welch Is Right On Jobs Report Manipulation Theory
I highly suggest you listen to this from rep West. WARNING: If you can't handle the truth, then do not listen to this video.
Well, how else should a week of more lies end but on the most unprecedented lie yet. If you have no clue what I am talking about you must have been on Mars when the employment lie was released on Friday morning.
I suggest you read Allen's thoughts on the jobs numbers from Friday, "I agree with former GE CEO Jack Welch, Chicago style politics is at work here. Somehow by manipulation of data we are all of a sudden below 8 percent unemployment, a month from the Presidential election. This is Orwellian to say the least and representative of Saul Alinsky tactics from the book "Rules for Radicals"- a must read for all who want to know how the left strategize . Trust the Obama administration? Sure, and the spontaneous reaction to a video caused the death of our Ambassador......and pigs fly." Tea Party Congressman Allen West: Jack Welch Is Right On Jobs Report Manipulation Theory
I highly suggest you listen to this from rep West. WARNING: If you can't handle the truth, then do not listen to this video.
Morning Charts 10/05/12 SPX /ES
Not much to discuss this morning. The markets are a total fraud, the presidential election is fun to watch but the same old lies year after years are getting old, the EU is still blowing up but everyone is in denial and we're still on the verge of a global war which will not happen till the financial crash needs a distraction.
I am enjoying watching the O campaign squirm, but in the end none of it will matter as the sheeple will vote for whomever will give them the most shit. Seriously, to be president all you have to do is lie about everything you plan to do and promise to pay for everything by taxing the super rich even more. Consequences? There are none as long as you keep on giving shit to the masses.
Well, consequences in terms of voter remorse or losing support that is. Consequences to the country are a totally different matter. Spending more while in your first four years than all previous presidents before you combined, now that is a feat that will never be topped (and if it is .... well it won't be). Doing irreparable damage to the financial underpinnings of the nation is no matter to the current president as long as his socialist policies and ideals are implemented.
I am enjoying watching the O campaign squirm, but in the end none of it will matter as the sheeple will vote for whomever will give them the most shit. Seriously, to be president all you have to do is lie about everything you plan to do and promise to pay for everything by taxing the super rich even more. Consequences? There are none as long as you keep on giving shit to the masses.
Well, consequences in terms of voter remorse or losing support that is. Consequences to the country are a totally different matter. Spending more while in your first four years than all previous presidents before you combined, now that is a feat that will never be topped (and if it is .... well it won't be). Doing irreparable damage to the financial underpinnings of the nation is no matter to the current president as long as his socialist policies and ideals are implemented.
Thursday, October 4, 2012
Morning Charts 10/04/12 SPX /ES
It will be interesting to see if Obummer can maintain his stranglehold on the MSM, and if some begin to splinter from the oppressive regime now that their dictator in chief has taken a few blows. What if the constantly ridiculed and brow beaten media that is so afraid of this administration finally grows a set of balls and turns on the person in the oval office?
Once it becomes clear that O may not have a chance of maintaining the white house, the floodgates holding back reporters form releasing years of truth and deep held emotions may be released. Boy would that be interesting. Seriously, what if the white house and other reporters no longer had their stories reviewed and edited by the white house before they were released? What if the truth were allowed to be told to the American public?
I suspect you will see a windfall of donations for MR from those that were leaning to the O camp. I have speculated MR will win in a landslide, but with Soros counting the votes in Spain nothing is a sure bet with this election.
I suspect you will see a windfall of donations for MR from those that were leaning to the O camp. I have speculated MR will win in a landslide, but with Soros counting the votes in Spain nothing is a sure bet with this election.
Wednesday, October 3, 2012
Morning Charts 10/03/12 SPX /ES
Very quickly on the debate tonight - does it really matter? IMO Obummer is the quick way to the end game and Romney is just a longer stroll to the same end. Bottom line is do you want to go down under a black or white man? I will not listen tonight or the next time cause spin, lies and cover ups are a total waste of my time. Discussing abortion and gay rights is not important at this time. Discussing the real issues that matter like the destruction of individual rights, the destruction of the Constitution, the banker takeover, special interest control of DC, real regulation, debt, the destruction of the US financial system, the ravaged economy, and a solid foreign policy should be the only things discussed but will barely be addressed.
Another reason I will not listen is that I literally can not stand to see or hear O speak. As an American he disturbs me more than I can put into words. (there is another tick mark for the handler to put on my record). Shock poll results have the race dead even. I laugh at those results every time I see them as I really can't understand why anyone would vote for either candidate. I really can't understand how O is even on the ballot. This country was founded by great men, apparently there are none left if this is all we can generate for our presidency.
IMF chief economist says crisis will last a decade - "The world economy will take at least 10 years to emerge from the financial crisis that began in 2008, the International Monetary Fund's Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard said in an interview published on Wednesday." A smidgeon of truth? Two words for the chief economist - Strauss-Kahn. You better have eyes in the back of your head my friend.
Another reason I will not listen is that I literally can not stand to see or hear O speak. As an American he disturbs me more than I can put into words. (there is another tick mark for the handler to put on my record). Shock poll results have the race dead even. I laugh at those results every time I see them as I really can't understand why anyone would vote for either candidate. I really can't understand how O is even on the ballot. This country was founded by great men, apparently there are none left if this is all we can generate for our presidency.
IMF chief economist says crisis will last a decade - "The world economy will take at least 10 years to emerge from the financial crisis that began in 2008, the International Monetary Fund's Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard said in an interview published on Wednesday." A smidgeon of truth? Two words for the chief economist - Strauss-Kahn. You better have eyes in the back of your head my friend.
Tuesday, October 2, 2012
Morning Charts 10/02/12 SPX /ES
While we wait on the ECB, the EU and Spain to get the next bailout under wraps let's cover some broad stuff this morning.
Zero Hedge has Bill Gross: The US Is A Debt Meth Addict - Unless The Fiscal Gap Is Closed Soon "The Damage Will Be Beyond Repair" where the Bond King skirts what I believe he knows is the ultimate truth, there is no way out. As the man managing the world's largest mutual fund he can't just come out and say outright to run for the hills. What he does say is, "Well, Armageddon is not around the corner. I don’t believe in the imminent demise of the U.S. economy and its financial markets. But I’m afraid for them." I say that for the 1% the economy may not doe, but for the 99% the world is certainly running away from them at a rapid pace.
Who says poverty does not pay, REPORT: JP MORGAN MAKES OVER HALF A BILLION DOLLARS OFF FOOD STAMPS. One word - SCUMBAGS!
Zero Hedge has Bill Gross: The US Is A Debt Meth Addict - Unless The Fiscal Gap Is Closed Soon "The Damage Will Be Beyond Repair" where the Bond King skirts what I believe he knows is the ultimate truth, there is no way out. As the man managing the world's largest mutual fund he can't just come out and say outright to run for the hills. What he does say is, "Well, Armageddon is not around the corner. I don’t believe in the imminent demise of the U.S. economy and its financial markets. But I’m afraid for them." I say that for the 1% the economy may not doe, but for the 99% the world is certainly running away from them at a rapid pace.
Who says poverty does not pay, REPORT: JP MORGAN MAKES OVER HALF A BILLION DOLLARS OFF FOOD STAMPS. One word - SCUMBAGS!
Monday, October 1, 2012
Morning Charts 10/01/12 SPX /ES
Let's face it, they are gonna ease no matter what, how, why, when, where, whatever. We've been saying it for almost a year now. Their backs are against the wall. They have no way out. They will print until the gates of hell open and we are all sucked down the tube to eternal damnation.
From Zero Hedge, "Gold and Silver and surging this morning as the Fed's Charles Evans talks on CNBC of the need for more accomodative policy by the Fed. His 'infiniter' easing seems to have sparked this move as he clarifies the seeming psychopathy of the Federal Reserve's actions. His message clearly is that the amount doesn't matter (nor the unintended consequences), the printing and flooding of money into an already stuffed banking system will continue until morale improves." Permadove Chuck Evans Speaks, Precious Metals Soar (emphasis mine)
From Zero Hedge, "Gold and Silver and surging this morning as the Fed's Charles Evans talks on CNBC of the need for more accomodative policy by the Fed. His 'infiniter' easing seems to have sparked this move as he clarifies the seeming psychopathy of the Federal Reserve's actions. His message clearly is that the amount doesn't matter (nor the unintended consequences), the printing and flooding of money into an already stuffed banking system will continue until morale improves." Permadove Chuck Evans Speaks, Precious Metals Soar (emphasis mine)
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