STB wishes all a happy and prosperous New Year. I thank you all for your support and readership.
To the lurkers, maybe a resolution would be to start commenting and get involved. Share your thoughts and opinions. I was a lurker once. My knowledge blossomed when I became involved. You have a lot to give and now is the time to express yourself. Interacting and communicating is vital. I don't care if you do it here or somewhere else, just do it.
Friday, December 30, 2011
Morning post 12/30/11, SPX
Let the fight to keep the major indexes positive for the year begin. Expect nothing else today. I'm thinking there is the possibility of a late sell off, but that's gonna be as slim a the volume or actual traders left in the pits.
A few posts you must read this AM to keep things in perspective.
Foreigners Dump Record Amount Of US Treasurys In Past Month | ZeroHedge, The global Ponzi is dead and the only thing supporting everything right now is printing or monetization of debt. In other words, the worst case scenario.
European Banks Close 2011 With Near Record Cash On Deposit At ECB, €9 Billion Overnight Increase | ZeroHedge. And they don't have their money in the domestic banks because? Beuller? Anyone?
A few posts you must read this AM to keep things in perspective.
Foreigners Dump Record Amount Of US Treasurys In Past Month | ZeroHedge, The global Ponzi is dead and the only thing supporting everything right now is printing or monetization of debt. In other words, the worst case scenario.
European Banks Close 2011 With Near Record Cash On Deposit At ECB, €9 Billion Overnight Increase | ZeroHedge. And they don't have their money in the domestic banks because? Beuller? Anyone?
Thursday, December 29, 2011
Morning Post 12/29/11, SPX
STB wanted to get thru opex and the 23rd then "all bets were off". This low volume holiday week is a dangerous time to be betting on the market. Heck, any week has become dangerous for that matter. The HFT algo bots controlling the system, the Fed printing to keep the illusion all is well alive, the ECB is "not" printing and all it takes is a meaningless rumor to move this market up 1% (never down on bad news mind you) in a matter of minutes makes for a bad mix.
I'm enjoying vacation. Although I have been under the weather and there is less snow than I have seen in my 20 years of coming here (that is a huge deal as water supply issues in the west may be a problem this year) we're still rolling along having a good time. Looks like some snow will be coming today. I'm enjoying a break from the doom and gloom, but have no fear I'll be back with a vengeance soon.
Daily BB's narrowing quickly indicating some volatility is on the way. Reversal off of solid resistance following the doji. Looks like 1220 area is first solid support. The explosion of the dollar and the implosion of TNX yesterday were not welcomed by the markets.
I'm enjoying vacation. Although I have been under the weather and there is less snow than I have seen in my 20 years of coming here (that is a huge deal as water supply issues in the west may be a problem this year) we're still rolling along having a good time. Looks like some snow will be coming today. I'm enjoying a break from the doom and gloom, but have no fear I'll be back with a vengeance soon.
Daily BB's narrowing quickly indicating some volatility is on the way. Reversal off of solid resistance following the doji. Looks like 1220 area is first solid support. The explosion of the dollar and the implosion of TNX yesterday were not welcomed by the markets.
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
Sunday, December 25, 2011
12/26/11, SPX
Monday is a travel day for Shanky. STB is headed to CO for some skiing with the family. Crested Butte, CO to be exact. I'll still be working and posting in the mornings.
I've scrolled ZH and Drudge and don't see anything I want to address at this time. That will change with tomorrow morning's post. Still no AD's this week. Those get back going after the first.
I hope everyone had a great Christmas. We sure did. Thanks for all the kind comments and well wishes last week.
60m MACD and ROC divergences at this potential double top are pretty nasty.
GL and GB.
I've scrolled ZH and Drudge and don't see anything I want to address at this time. That will change with tomorrow morning's post. Still no AD's this week. Those get back going after the first.
I hope everyone had a great Christmas. We sure did. Thanks for all the kind comments and well wishes last week.
60m MACD and ROC divergences at this potential double top are pretty nasty.
GL and GB.
Friday, December 23, 2011
Thursday, December 22, 2011
Morning Post 12/22/11, SPX
In one of those strange and yet at the same time miraculous market phenomenons we like to point out at STB, "as expected retail investors have pulled money from domestic (and foreign) equity funds for 33 of the past 34 weeks, with last week another $4 billion getting redeemed as mutual funds, now unchanged for the year, somehow have to deal with a $133 billion lower cash balance than at the beginning of the year." Retail Investors Pull $132 Billion From Domestic Equity Funds In 2011, 33 Of 34 Sequential Weeks Of Outflows | ZeroHedge. And the SPX is down 17 points on the year. Looks like they are doing the most with what they have left. Remember how close the SPX and the other indexes are to break even for the year. This may come into play over the next couple of weeks (hint: it is a target).
I know this was posted in the comments section yesterday, but in case you missed it, Mark Faber: "I Am Convinced The Whole Derivatives Market Will Cease To Exist And Will Go To Zero" | ZeroHedge. I suggest that you read about the hidden (from the sheeple via lack of reporting from the MSM) financial nuke that will be the most financially devastating bomb to ever hit the globe. This has been the one point that has had STB in "total fail" mode since 2007.
If you don't read the post at least look at the charts, you'll get the picture. Guest Post: Worse Than 2008 | ZeroHedge. My favorite is this one illustrating, well, you can figure that out. Reminds me of that famous joke, "And all I got for Christmas was....". Folks that is a shitpot load of cash that has been spent and solved absolutely nothing.
SPX 60m - Well, it's baaack. The 60m divergence sparked by the spike last night (surprise) has the 60m set up yet again. This setup has called every move over the past few weeks like clockwork. The markets and minis are set to open above resistance this time (unlike yesterday where they got pulled back before the open). The daily indicators appear to be working their way back up at this time but are indecisive at best.
Even the cash 60m is showing a slight divergence while indicators are at a level they could possibly be tiring out.
Remember the Reason for the season.
GL and GB.
I know this was posted in the comments section yesterday, but in case you missed it, Mark Faber: "I Am Convinced The Whole Derivatives Market Will Cease To Exist And Will Go To Zero" | ZeroHedge. I suggest that you read about the hidden (from the sheeple via lack of reporting from the MSM) financial nuke that will be the most financially devastating bomb to ever hit the globe. This has been the one point that has had STB in "total fail" mode since 2007.
If you don't read the post at least look at the charts, you'll get the picture. Guest Post: Worse Than 2008 | ZeroHedge. My favorite is this one illustrating, well, you can figure that out. Reminds me of that famous joke, "And all I got for Christmas was....". Folks that is a shitpot load of cash that has been spent and solved absolutely nothing.
SPX 60m - Well, it's baaack. The 60m divergence sparked by the spike last night (surprise) has the 60m set up yet again. This setup has called every move over the past few weeks like clockwork. The markets and minis are set to open above resistance this time (unlike yesterday where they got pulled back before the open). The daily indicators appear to be working their way back up at this time but are indecisive at best.
Even the cash 60m is showing a slight divergence while indicators are at a level they could possibly be tiring out.
Remember the Reason for the season.
GL and GB.
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Morning Post 12/21/11
Another numerology day and the day that marks the one year countdown to the end of the Mayan Calendar (Mexico Mayan region launches apocalypse countdown). Boy will we be having fun next year on this day and in the months leading up to it. Well, that is if the government has not shut down the internet, and I'm not in the Ft. Benning FEMA camp of course. Heck by that time every BD may have stolen all of our investment funds and there may not be any reason to be here discussing investments anyway.
So why the reason for the big ramp yesterday? Well the EU finally got some much needed funding to assist the liquidity crisis. Will this solve any core or long term issues? Heck no! "Below are select knee jerk responses by Wall Street analysts, which as warned repeatedly, are broadly skeptical for one simple reason: by delaying much needed ECB intervention, which is the only "bazooka" in this case, the solvency crisis in Europe's financial core will continue to escalate until the next time around it will require far greater stop gap measures. Bottom line - this solves nothing." What The Analysts Are Saying - Wall Street's Kneejerk Response To Oversized LTRO | ZeroHedge. Bottom line is print or die and then die because you printed.
You see, "Lastly, as a reminder, European deleveraing needs in the "near-term" are €2.5 trillion, meaning today's LTRO barely covers 20% of total needs, and is even less if some banks indeed foolishly decided to partake in the carry trade". Summary - LTRO Represents 20% Of European Bank Deleveraging Needs | ZeroHedge. So the party yesterday is met with the broad skepticism mentioned above and was celebrating a 20% max solution? As STB likes to ask, seriously? All that move for what?
I suggest you watch this, "video is 15 minutes long and well-worth watching. Platt is not a permabear by any means. He caught the rebound nicely in 2009 but now believes the prudent thing to do is completely avoid risk for the time being as better opportunities will come down the road for those who stay liquid. Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: $30 Billion Fund Manager Makes Case for Being Totally on Sidelines in Treasuries and German Bonds.
So who's not taking funds out of the markets? "Worldwide, investors have yanked $34 billion out of equity funds this year and put $75 billion into bonds." No Stocks Under Tree: Investors End Year Fleeing Equities For Bonds - Fast Money - CNBC - CNBC and that should leave you wondering who's playing, right?
I really suggest you read this and all the accompanying links - Constitutional Expert: "President Obama ... Says That He Can Kill [Any American Citizen Without Any Charge and] On His Own Discretion. He Can Jail You Indefinitely On His Own Discretion”
Hey, I guess when you are in another country you can have free speech and not be assured indefinite detention for no cause. Must be nice. Hugo tells it like it is, "“Mr. Obama decided to attack us,” Chávez said. “Now you want to win votes by attacking Venezuela. Don’t be irresponsible. You are a clown, a clown. Leave us in peace … Go after your votes by fulfilling that which you promised your people. Focus on governing your country, which you’ve turned into a disaster,” Chávez said, according to The Guardian. Hugo Chavez: Obama’s a ‘clown’ president - Mackenzie Weinger - POLITICO.com
So, my cautionary stance of the last few weeks is paying off. I warned to hold off till opex ended and then was willing to give them till the 23rd and then "all bets are off". That still stands. Duck and cover remains in full force (that is on perpetually right now). The LTRO is a stop gap measure that will temporarily solve liquidity issues which should give the markets some relief. As noted a long time back, measures now no longer generate sustainable ramps, but short bursts that keep the markets propped up.
SPX 60m - It took a long and strong move to drive price back thru 1220 but that was not an issue taking that technical level down. How bout that one day 61% retracement. Nice! Minis last night moved as high as 1249 after an 8 point spike in the 5 hr but that has been taken back to get price back under 1236 resistance. This move does open the door to upside potential in cash today, but the take down is not a positive by any means.You see the minis have fallen from that 1249 level all the way to 1228 at this point. that is a 21 point tumble. Not good. Maybe the markets are on to this LTRO being a bogus non solution and want to take advantage of selling at these higher levels? Note there is a potential SP (Shaky Point) overnight at 1200.
I'm watching the blue wedge here. It plays out when? Right after the first of the year of course. Sets up nicely for a churn from now thru New Years. Then down should be the only way to go and that is a massive hole below.
STB will be out this afternoon traveling to the ATL for Christmas with family, but I will be here Thursday and Friday. As mentioned all next week STB will be on vacation, but still posting and working from the annual trip to Crested Butte.
Remember the Reason for the season!
GL and GB.
“And the Grinch, with his Grinch-feet ice cold in the snow,
stood puzzling and puzzling, how could it be so? It came without ribbons.
It came without tags. It came without packages, boxes or bags.
And he puzzled and puzzled 'till his puzzler was sore.
Then the Grinch thought of something he hadn't before.
What if Christmas, he thought, doesn't come from a store.
What if Christmas, perhaps, means a little bit more.”
So why the reason for the big ramp yesterday? Well the EU finally got some much needed funding to assist the liquidity crisis. Will this solve any core or long term issues? Heck no! "Below are select knee jerk responses by Wall Street analysts, which as warned repeatedly, are broadly skeptical for one simple reason: by delaying much needed ECB intervention, which is the only "bazooka" in this case, the solvency crisis in Europe's financial core will continue to escalate until the next time around it will require far greater stop gap measures. Bottom line - this solves nothing." What The Analysts Are Saying - Wall Street's Kneejerk Response To Oversized LTRO | ZeroHedge. Bottom line is print or die and then die because you printed.
You see, "Lastly, as a reminder, European deleveraing needs in the "near-term" are €2.5 trillion, meaning today's LTRO barely covers 20% of total needs, and is even less if some banks indeed foolishly decided to partake in the carry trade". Summary - LTRO Represents 20% Of European Bank Deleveraging Needs | ZeroHedge. So the party yesterday is met with the broad skepticism mentioned above and was celebrating a 20% max solution? As STB likes to ask, seriously? All that move for what?
I suggest you watch this, "video is 15 minutes long and well-worth watching. Platt is not a permabear by any means. He caught the rebound nicely in 2009 but now believes the prudent thing to do is completely avoid risk for the time being as better opportunities will come down the road for those who stay liquid. Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: $30 Billion Fund Manager Makes Case for Being Totally on Sidelines in Treasuries and German Bonds.
So who's not taking funds out of the markets? "Worldwide, investors have yanked $34 billion out of equity funds this year and put $75 billion into bonds." No Stocks Under Tree: Investors End Year Fleeing Equities For Bonds - Fast Money - CNBC - CNBC and that should leave you wondering who's playing, right?
I really suggest you read this and all the accompanying links - Constitutional Expert: "President Obama ... Says That He Can Kill [Any American Citizen Without Any Charge and] On His Own Discretion. He Can Jail You Indefinitely On His Own Discretion”
Hey, I guess when you are in another country you can have free speech and not be assured indefinite detention for no cause. Must be nice. Hugo tells it like it is, "“Mr. Obama decided to attack us,” Chávez said. “Now you want to win votes by attacking Venezuela. Don’t be irresponsible. You are a clown, a clown. Leave us in peace … Go after your votes by fulfilling that which you promised your people. Focus on governing your country, which you’ve turned into a disaster,” Chávez said, according to The Guardian. Hugo Chavez: Obama’s a ‘clown’ president - Mackenzie Weinger - POLITICO.com
So, my cautionary stance of the last few weeks is paying off. I warned to hold off till opex ended and then was willing to give them till the 23rd and then "all bets are off". That still stands. Duck and cover remains in full force (that is on perpetually right now). The LTRO is a stop gap measure that will temporarily solve liquidity issues which should give the markets some relief. As noted a long time back, measures now no longer generate sustainable ramps, but short bursts that keep the markets propped up.
SPX 60m - It took a long and strong move to drive price back thru 1220 but that was not an issue taking that technical level down. How bout that one day 61% retracement. Nice! Minis last night moved as high as 1249 after an 8 point spike in the 5 hr but that has been taken back to get price back under 1236 resistance. This move does open the door to upside potential in cash today, but the take down is not a positive by any means.You see the minis have fallen from that 1249 level all the way to 1228 at this point. that is a 21 point tumble. Not good. Maybe the markets are on to this LTRO being a bogus non solution and want to take advantage of selling at these higher levels? Note there is a potential SP (Shaky Point) overnight at 1200.
I'm watching the blue wedge here. It plays out when? Right after the first of the year of course. Sets up nicely for a churn from now thru New Years. Then down should be the only way to go and that is a massive hole below.
STB will be out this afternoon traveling to the ATL for Christmas with family, but I will be here Thursday and Friday. As mentioned all next week STB will be on vacation, but still posting and working from the annual trip to Crested Butte.
Remember the Reason for the season!
GL and GB.
“And the Grinch, with his Grinch-feet ice cold in the snow,
stood puzzling and puzzling, how could it be so? It came without ribbons.
It came without tags. It came without packages, boxes or bags.
And he puzzled and puzzled 'till his puzzler was sore.
Then the Grinch thought of something he hadn't before.
What if Christmas, he thought, doesn't come from a store.
What if Christmas, perhaps, means a little bit more.”
Tuesday, December 20, 2011
Morning Post 12/20/11
Funny, STB loves confirmation of the wild and crazy theories we present here on almost a weekly basis. For those of you that doubt or think my ranting on the economic data manipulation are unfounded maybe you should read Bureau Of Labor Statistics Caught Red Handed Leaking Confidential Employment Data | ZeroHedge. "But at least the next time the market does its usual pre-NFP acrobats, the only question will be: which particular US politicians i) traded in advance of the embargo lift, and ii) leaked the information to ten of their closest friends, who did the same, who did the same, etc." This one is nice as it covers both data manipulation and the congressional insider trading and many other points we consistently call bullshit on.
Speaking of data manipulation maybe you should read Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Buyer's Remorse; Record Volume of Returns Before Christmas; $217 Billion Returns Expected, Up 14% before the next round of really bad data points are released that you should not believe. Anyone here remember the recent "revision" (you know the 20% markdown) in home sales going back to 2007?
Sticking with the corrupt/crooks/theives theme this morning another must read is Jesse's Café Américain: Trustee to Seize and Liquidate Even the Stored Customer Gold and Silver Bullion From MF Global where you get, "Get your money as far away from Wall Street as is possible. And if you want to own gold and silver, take delivery and store it in a secure private facility outside the fractional reserve system." The theme of getting as far away from the system as possible with you wealth is starting to take root across the interned and not n fringe sites, but with major players. STB has long been recommending you buy your gold of silver in untraceable amounts with cash and keeping it at home or is some very safe place. See Denninger's thoughts on this topic in Private Property Now Subject To Seizure in [Market-Ticker].
Want to see something that is really fucked up and will absolutely blow your mind? "As the following brief but must watch video explains, the ESM "is an organization that can sue us, but is immune from any forms of prosecution and whose managers enjoy the same immunity; there are no independent reviewers and no existing laws apply; governments can not take action against it? Europe's national budgets in the hands of one single unelected intergovernmental organization? Is that the future of Europe? Is that the new EU? A Europe devoid of sovereign democracies?"" Video Explanation Of How The ESM Is Europe's Uber-TARP On Steroids | ZeroHedge
Most readers know that STB has been targeting 1040 SPX for quite some time now before the next massive stimulus is released. Recently CITI came out with a 950 target and yesterday this came out Bank Of America: "Santa Is Not Coming", Sees 50% Chance Of Drop To 950 | ZeroHedge.
SPX 60m - It just looks like a likely point for some sort of corrective to stop the bleeding, temporarily. With the 10yr at 1.84, they need to do something fast.
Important issues -
Most readers know that I think a killer biological weapon will come with the next war (put whatever theory you prefer with this post). I was not surprised to find Alarm as Dutch lab creates highly contagious killer flu - Science - News - The Independent yesterday. Just something to keep in mind. Remember they can't afford to feed everyone and the entitlement state is getting a bit out of hand. What better way to remove a large part of the burden that to simply eliminate the problem under the guise of war with a killer flu virus.
In yet another police state development - The Anti-Internet Bill has NOT Been Postponed To 2012 … The Committee Members Who Support SOPA Sneakily Changed the Hearing Date to December 21st, Trying to Trick the American People Into Thinking It Was Over Until After the Holidays So We Won’t Fight Back! - Washington's Blog
Bloomberg TV actually reported that Ron Paul has the lead in Iowa this morning. It was of course a brief bit after a big piece on Romney, but a mention of reality is nice.
Speaking of data manipulation maybe you should read Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Buyer's Remorse; Record Volume of Returns Before Christmas; $217 Billion Returns Expected, Up 14% before the next round of really bad data points are released that you should not believe. Anyone here remember the recent "revision" (you know the 20% markdown) in home sales going back to 2007?
Sticking with the corrupt/crooks/theives theme this morning another must read is Jesse's Café Américain: Trustee to Seize and Liquidate Even the Stored Customer Gold and Silver Bullion From MF Global where you get, "Get your money as far away from Wall Street as is possible. And if you want to own gold and silver, take delivery and store it in a secure private facility outside the fractional reserve system." The theme of getting as far away from the system as possible with you wealth is starting to take root across the interned and not n fringe sites, but with major players. STB has long been recommending you buy your gold of silver in untraceable amounts with cash and keeping it at home or is some very safe place. See Denninger's thoughts on this topic in Private Property Now Subject To Seizure in [Market-Ticker].
Want to see something that is really fucked up and will absolutely blow your mind? "As the following brief but must watch video explains, the ESM "is an organization that can sue us, but is immune from any forms of prosecution and whose managers enjoy the same immunity; there are no independent reviewers and no existing laws apply; governments can not take action against it? Europe's national budgets in the hands of one single unelected intergovernmental organization? Is that the future of Europe? Is that the new EU? A Europe devoid of sovereign democracies?"" Video Explanation Of How The ESM Is Europe's Uber-TARP On Steroids | ZeroHedge
Most readers know that STB has been targeting 1040 SPX for quite some time now before the next massive stimulus is released. Recently CITI came out with a 950 target and yesterday this came out Bank Of America: "Santa Is Not Coming", Sees 50% Chance Of Drop To 950 | ZeroHedge.
SPX 60m - It just looks like a likely point for some sort of corrective to stop the bleeding, temporarily. With the 10yr at 1.84, they need to do something fast.
Important issues -
Most readers know that I think a killer biological weapon will come with the next war (put whatever theory you prefer with this post). I was not surprised to find Alarm as Dutch lab creates highly contagious killer flu - Science - News - The Independent yesterday. Just something to keep in mind. Remember they can't afford to feed everyone and the entitlement state is getting a bit out of hand. What better way to remove a large part of the burden that to simply eliminate the problem under the guise of war with a killer flu virus.
In yet another police state development - The Anti-Internet Bill has NOT Been Postponed To 2012 … The Committee Members Who Support SOPA Sneakily Changed the Hearing Date to December 21st, Trying to Trick the American People Into Thinking It Was Over Until After the Holidays So We Won’t Fight Back! - Washington's Blog
Bloomberg TV actually reported that Ron Paul has the lead in Iowa this morning. It was of course a brief bit after a big piece on Romney, but a mention of reality is nice.
Monday, December 19, 2011
Morning Post 12/19/11, SPX
'Twas the week before Christmas and all thru the house Shanky had a lot going on (as I am sure you do as well). You'll always have a post but not always have me this week as I gots some things to do. Those that play the Shanky vacation market crash trade you are in luck! The week after Christmas I'll be doing the annual trip to ski with the family in Crested Butte. I'll still be working from CB as usual. I wish everyone a safre and happy holiday season.
On to the markets. As you know we have almost fully entered the "all bets are off" zone STB has been forecasting. After this week I may go full blown duck and cover, but now that we're past opex I suggest you be at the ready. There is a massive hole for news generating events till the next FOMC meeting in late January. Unless Evans of some other Fed president starts really hyping easing (in a big way), I see nothing that can lift the markets or even sustain them at current levels till the rumor ramp should start mid January. What the bulls will have is the next two weeks will be super low volume and some EOY adjustments. Bears may have to remain patient.
You all know I'm looking for a major move south to allow for some sort of massive easing. DB has been looking for this as well. "So what does this tell us? The extremely low risk premium fully captures QE expectations. Empirically, they find USD19bn of new QE tends to reduce real rates by 1bps and based on this and a model of fundamentals and risk aversion parameters, they find that Twist was fully priced in last September and since then the current dislocation suggests another full QE2-style package of about $800bn is already priced into the market (ex MBS reinvestment)." We just hope the market is not disappointed. Deutsche On QE3, It's $800bn Or Bust! | ZeroHedge. STB is looking for multiple trillions. A major move with language there will be more to come.
Minis 4hr - See the pink channel? Bulls better make a move here with price recovering off a potential double bottom at 1200, they need to push price thru 1218 resistance and the upper channel resistance. If not it could get fugly.
On to the markets. As you know we have almost fully entered the "all bets are off" zone STB has been forecasting. After this week I may go full blown duck and cover, but now that we're past opex I suggest you be at the ready. There is a massive hole for news generating events till the next FOMC meeting in late January. Unless Evans of some other Fed president starts really hyping easing (in a big way), I see nothing that can lift the markets or even sustain them at current levels till the rumor ramp should start mid January. What the bulls will have is the next two weeks will be super low volume and some EOY adjustments. Bears may have to remain patient.
You all know I'm looking for a major move south to allow for some sort of massive easing. DB has been looking for this as well. "So what does this tell us? The extremely low risk premium fully captures QE expectations. Empirically, they find USD19bn of new QE tends to reduce real rates by 1bps and based on this and a model of fundamentals and risk aversion parameters, they find that Twist was fully priced in last September and since then the current dislocation suggests another full QE2-style package of about $800bn is already priced into the market (ex MBS reinvestment)." We just hope the market is not disappointed. Deutsche On QE3, It's $800bn Or Bust! | ZeroHedge. STB is looking for multiple trillions. A major move with language there will be more to come.
Minis 4hr - See the pink channel? Bulls better make a move here with price recovering off a potential double bottom at 1200, they need to push price thru 1218 resistance and the upper channel resistance. If not it could get fugly.
Friday, December 16, 2011
Open Weekend Post 12/17-18/11
You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.
MTV Martial Law Commercial - National Defense Authorization Act (S. 1867) - YouTube
"Viewers would be surprised to see MTV’s recent anti-Martial Law advert that ran this week. It’s part of of MTV’s ‘Think’ ad campaign, and is a clear break from the usual innocuous political content that we are normally used to seeing on a pop music network. The appearance of such a timely message here is somewhat surprising from the network whose unquestioning loyalty helped catapult Barack Obama into office in 2008, and may be called upon again to do the same in 2012…" MTV runs advert opposing Obama’s NDAA bill Alex Jones' Infowars
MTV Martial Law Commercial - National Defense Authorization Act (S. 1867) - YouTube
"Viewers would be surprised to see MTV’s recent anti-Martial Law advert that ran this week. It’s part of of MTV’s ‘Think’ ad campaign, and is a clear break from the usual innocuous political content that we are normally used to seeing on a pop music network. The appearance of such a timely message here is somewhat surprising from the network whose unquestioning loyalty helped catapult Barack Obama into office in 2008, and may be called upon again to do the same in 2012…" MTV runs advert opposing Obama’s NDAA bill Alex Jones' Infowars
Morning Post 12/16/11, SPX
Here's a good sentence to start the day that sums up the central planning bankster takeover quite nicely, "perhaps it is not the actual mechanics of this liquidity bazooka but the perception that democracy itself has been suspended in favor of bank and sovereign survival" from "ECB Liquidity: Back-Door Bazooka Or Suspension Of Democracy, BARCAP Opines | ZeroHedge. In the AD last night and over the past several months my focus has been shifting weight from heavy market coverage to more of a balance between markets and civil liberties. Why, because with the impending global financial meltdown it is just as important to know how you will be effected personally as well as financially.
This sentence sums up the outstanding jobs report yesterday, "What the hell happened there? It looks like a hell of a lot of people got laid off and shifted into the extended programs as well. This definitely wasn't in the November numbers for the big report..... so where did these people (nearly 900,000 of them?!) go?" Heh Claims, Once Again in [Market-Ticker]. More data manipulation from government agencies to give the impression things are improving and all is well.
This sentence sums up the outstanding jobs report yesterday, "What the hell happened there? It looks like a hell of a lot of people got laid off and shifted into the extended programs as well. This definitely wasn't in the November numbers for the big report..... so where did these people (nearly 900,000 of them?!) go?" Heh Claims, Once Again in [Market-Ticker]. More data manipulation from government agencies to give the impression things are improving and all is well.
Thursday, December 15, 2011
Afternoon Delight 12/15/11 - Indefinite Internment
The markets are a huge issue right now, but there is a far more important development we need to focus on. As for the markets, the EU summit and the FOMC meeting both came and went without any form of resolution to the crisis in the EU nor with more easing from the Fed. That leaves a gaping hole in the markets defenses for the bears to exploit. STB has been looking for a move to 1040 to come in order for the central planners to have the support (fear/desperation) to be able to deliver more stimulus.
I was very pleased to see Citi Near Term Stock Forecast: 9300 In The DJIA; 985 In The S&P; Sees Chart Analogs To Pre-World War Periods | ZeroHedge confirming a lot of what I have been calling for over the past 6 months. More recently I have been allowing the central planners to halt the current slide because of opex Friday and Christmas on the way, but after the 24th "all bets are off". My 1218 backtest call halted the upward movement this morning nicely. Was that it for the upside here? More than likely I think so, but we still have to get thru next week and 1200 round level support below.
After hours the RIMM disappointment and this announcement - Fitch Downgrades 8 Global Banks Including BNP, SocGen, BofA, Deutsche, And Morgan Stanley have not budged the futures. I guess big tech and banks no longer matter to the markets.
I was very pleased to see Citi Near Term Stock Forecast: 9300 In The DJIA; 985 In The S&P; Sees Chart Analogs To Pre-World War Periods | ZeroHedge confirming a lot of what I have been calling for over the past 6 months. More recently I have been allowing the central planners to halt the current slide because of opex Friday and Christmas on the way, but after the 24th "all bets are off". My 1218 backtest call halted the upward movement this morning nicely. Was that it for the upside here? More than likely I think so, but we still have to get thru next week and 1200 round level support below.
After hours the RIMM disappointment and this announcement - Fitch Downgrades 8 Global Banks Including BNP, SocGen, BofA, Deutsche, And Morgan Stanley have not budged the futures. I guess big tech and banks no longer matter to the markets.
Gold -
I thought I would do a quick post on gold since the charts are screaming at me.
OK - first I ma a HUGE believer in gold and that gold will eventually cross the $5000 barrier and more. I am also a believer that when the big crash happens and true capitulation occurs all asset classes sell off in a hurry. There will be no place to hide. At some point all the money turns and flows into physical gold and silver as total panic ensues. Then the explosion up occurs. Till then goldbugs may face some tough times.
Let's start with this from Stockcharts chartshhool - The descending triangle is a bearish formation that usually forms during a downtrend as a continuation pattern. There are instances when descending triangles form as reversal patterns at the end of an uptrend, but they are typically continuation patterns. Regardless of where they form, descending triangles are bearish patterns that indicate distribution.
OK - first I ma a HUGE believer in gold and that gold will eventually cross the $5000 barrier and more. I am also a believer that when the big crash happens and true capitulation occurs all asset classes sell off in a hurry. There will be no place to hide. At some point all the money turns and flows into physical gold and silver as total panic ensues. Then the explosion up occurs. Till then goldbugs may face some tough times.
Let's start with this from Stockcharts chartshhool - The descending triangle is a bearish formation that usually forms during a downtrend as a continuation pattern. There are instances when descending triangles form as reversal patterns at the end of an uptrend, but they are typically continuation patterns. Regardless of where they form, descending triangles are bearish patterns that indicate distribution.
Morning Post 12/15/11
Holy shit - 10 days till Christmas. Meaning we're two days into that 12 days of Christmas song that I can not stand. I bet my readers can rewrite that one rather quickly. Here is a quick effort by me. Feel free to leave your suggestions in the comments section. I could not work in the Vespas or extra ammo.
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
Afternoon Delight 12/14/11 - Anything Goes
I think they are out of bullets at this time and will do what they can thru the PPT to support the markets thru Friday's OPEX and possibly the 24th, but as I have been saying after that all bets are off. The EU summit failed and the Fed is (has been since October) stepping out of the supporting the EU (at least in rhetoric). There is nothing left to support price. Heck all that has supported price recently were unfounded rumors of salvation and hope. Now we just let the liquidity boa squeeze the life out of the ECB and the EU banks.
SPX E-Mini 60m - Back at the early November top I was calling for a drop and pop to set divergences on the daily indicators before a major move south would happen. That is set now. As for right now - See that small pink wedge with the underthrow and cracking the lower Green channel support? Now see the divergences on MACD and RSI.
Either this is a blow off bottom with round level 1200 and LT diagonal (yellow) support or it is about to puke up a lung. With the dollar exploding, the TNX in full submission mode and the daily indicators looking rather ill, full puke may be in order sooner than later. 1218 was a major hurdle for the bears and that yellow line is next. I'm still thinking they try to support it thru OPEX or Christmas, but that may be too much to ask.
SPX E-Mini 60m - Back at the early November top I was calling for a drop and pop to set divergences on the daily indicators before a major move south would happen. That is set now. As for right now - See that small pink wedge with the underthrow and cracking the lower Green channel support? Now see the divergences on MACD and RSI.
Either this is a blow off bottom with round level 1200 and LT diagonal (yellow) support or it is about to puke up a lung. With the dollar exploding, the TNX in full submission mode and the daily indicators looking rather ill, full puke may be in order sooner than later. 1218 was a major hurdle for the bears and that yellow line is next. I'm still thinking they try to support it thru OPEX or Christmas, but that may be too much to ask.
Morning Post 12/14/11, SPX
So, like a bunch of whining babies not getting their candy or toys, the markets moan and complain about not getting their easing "fix". I hate to sound like a broken record, but this should be proof enough (and the 2000th iteration of this) that the only thing that keeps the markets afloat is intervention. Reality is the Fed can ease at any time they want. The issues now is what collateral damage comes with every additional dollar printed.
The EU summit came and went (yet again) without any sort of resolution. As we have been discussing there is no resolution or "fix" as they want you to believe. About the only action left is to print, print, print like they never have before. We also all know that this will only lead to increasing the already unmanageable debt load. So, when does the proverbial fiat dollar finally break the camel's back? That is the question we ask every day.
The EU summit came and went (yet again) without any sort of resolution. As we have been discussing there is no resolution or "fix" as they want you to believe. About the only action left is to print, print, print like they never have before. We also all know that this will only lead to increasing the already unmanageable debt load. So, when does the proverbial fiat dollar finally break the camel's back? That is the question we ask every day.
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
Afternoon Delight 12/13/11 - There Is No Relief
There is no answer. Despite the Fed's Evans constantly crowing for more easing (proving that he's either a total idiot or a market manipulation shill for the banksters), none was delivered today. I'm not sure how or who thought more easing would come today and why any had hopes of such an action. With the DOW near 12000, what's the hurry?
Either way, easing or not, we're pretty doomed. We already exist in a world of insurmountable debt. There are two way to deal with this problem. You either default or make the problem exponentially worse, kick the can, ease some more and make the problem even worse down the road.
We've already done that second solution twice, so why would a third time be the charm and magically fix everything when the first two have ....made the problem even worse? The fact that some believe that all will be well and the charade that the cronies are preaching thru the MSM is really disgusting. For those that still believe that there is a chance things can be fixed, you need to dust up on your remedial math and have your head examined.
Either way, easing or not, we're pretty doomed. We already exist in a world of insurmountable debt. There are two way to deal with this problem. You either default or make the problem exponentially worse, kick the can, ease some more and make the problem even worse down the road.
We've already done that second solution twice, so why would a third time be the charm and magically fix everything when the first two have ....made the problem even worse? The fact that some believe that all will be well and the charade that the cronies are preaching thru the MSM is really disgusting. For those that still believe that there is a chance things can be fixed, you need to dust up on your remedial math and have your head examined.
Morning Post 12/13/11, Chartapalooza day!
Let's look at some LT weekly charts.
EUR/USD - Is that a massive HnS targeting 60? STB has had a $116 target (after $135 then $125 targets) for quite some time now. IF that is a HnS then my target may just be the neckline of a massive failure.
EUR/USD - Is that a massive HnS targeting 60? STB has had a $116 target (after $135 then $125 targets) for quite some time now. IF that is a HnS then my target may just be the neckline of a massive failure.
Monday, December 12, 2011
Afternoon Delight 12/12/11 -
Not sure where to start today. Friday we had yet another EU D-Day come and go without any form of reconciliation or agreement on how to solve the financial crisis. Of course the markets ramped up to the event in anticipation some sort of solution would come that would end the nightmare.
Well, we all here at STB knew plain as day that nothing would happen and this date would come and go without any "solution" for one simple reason - there is no solution. All the money in the world (currently) would not solve anything. All the money they can print will not solve anything. Piling more debt on unmanageable debt is no answer. They are screwed and it is only a matter of time before something breaks and they complete system fails. They announced March as the time for the next meeting, If, somehow, they can hold out till then, February will be the next ramp month in anticipation of the next "solution". I'm not sure they will make it to that point.
I'm not gonna rehash a bunch of treaty busting rhetoric that produces nothing. I'm tired of the rest of it for now. Nothing "flowed" today, so I don't "flow" now. Not gonna waste your time.
Well, we all here at STB knew plain as day that nothing would happen and this date would come and go without any "solution" for one simple reason - there is no solution. All the money in the world (currently) would not solve anything. All the money they can print will not solve anything. Piling more debt on unmanageable debt is no answer. They are screwed and it is only a matter of time before something breaks and they complete system fails. They announced March as the time for the next meeting, If, somehow, they can hold out till then, February will be the next ramp month in anticipation of the next "solution". I'm not sure they will make it to that point.
I'm not gonna rehash a bunch of treaty busting rhetoric that produces nothing. I'm tired of the rest of it for now. Nothing "flowed" today, so I don't "flow" now. Not gonna waste your time.
Morning Post 12/12/11. SPX
OK, I was thinking that with Christmas and all we'd lighten up on the doom and gloom for a couple of weeks. Sorry, can't do that. Now is the time for light hearts and giving and all the mumbo jumbo that comes with this glorious season, but now is also not the time to be lightening your focus on global events financial or otherwise. We're on the cliff of despair and now is not the time to be distracted no matter the season. Sure, they may maintain this market thru Christmas, but in January all bets are off.
STB remains on the liquidity issue train. Follow the money (or lack there of) and you will find the source of all the ills. For those of you that need an analogy, the global financial system is a huge cash burning furnace. They print money to fuel the furnace. Money gets burned in the furnace. In a normal situation this furnace would generate steam or some form of beneficial energy that propels the engines. Sadly in this case the money is being burned to just sustain the life of the system and is not generating any benefits beyond that.
Here is the key - we have to pay for every dollar burned/borrowed. When the system can take that energy and use it for growth and actually return more than the fuel everything works (and as we all know a perpetual energy system has not been discovered yet - helloooo). When the system is just burning dollars to sustain, things are not so good. So, we've been shoveling larger and larger amounts of dollars that we still have to pay for into a furnace with an ever growing appetite that generates nothing in return. And that the state of the global financial system Charlie Brown.
STB remains on the liquidity issue train. Follow the money (or lack there of) and you will find the source of all the ills. For those of you that need an analogy, the global financial system is a huge cash burning furnace. They print money to fuel the furnace. Money gets burned in the furnace. In a normal situation this furnace would generate steam or some form of beneficial energy that propels the engines. Sadly in this case the money is being burned to just sustain the life of the system and is not generating any benefits beyond that.
Here is the key - we have to pay for every dollar burned/borrowed. When the system can take that energy and use it for growth and actually return more than the fuel everything works (and as we all know a perpetual energy system has not been discovered yet - helloooo). When the system is just burning dollars to sustain, things are not so good. So, we've been shoveling larger and larger amounts of dollars that we still have to pay for into a furnace with an ever growing appetite that generates nothing in return. And that the state of the global financial system Charlie Brown.
Friday, December 9, 2011
Open Weekend Post 12/10-11/11
You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.
I'll say this, times are tough and even tougher to spread the truth especially at this time of year. I'll say that while with loved ones over the holidays set 'em up for the body blows after the first of the year delivering a few well placed jabs to get them thinking. Share your knowledge and back it up with links to your favorite posts and articles. Hit larger broad topics and use questions to set up your attack. Get active emailing this stuff. People need to know what's gong down. We only have one shot at this, and the time is now to start spreading the news.
A links -
Evolution Securities Warns Of "Total Carnage And Meltdown" As European Bank Sales Of CDS On European Sovereign Debt Soar | ZeroHedge
Enjoy your weekend. Remember the Reason for the season.
GL and GB.
I'll say this, times are tough and even tougher to spread the truth especially at this time of year. I'll say that while with loved ones over the holidays set 'em up for the body blows after the first of the year delivering a few well placed jabs to get them thinking. Share your knowledge and back it up with links to your favorite posts and articles. Hit larger broad topics and use questions to set up your attack. Get active emailing this stuff. People need to know what's gong down. We only have one shot at this, and the time is now to start spreading the news.
A links -
Evolution Securities Warns Of "Total Carnage And Meltdown" As European Bank Sales Of CDS On European Sovereign Debt Soar | ZeroHedge
Enjoy your weekend. Remember the Reason for the season.
GL and GB.
Morning Post 12/09/11, SPX
LS 1&2 in a school play this morning, so post will be late. Sorry for the inconvenience.
GL and GB.
ARRRGH Matey - the little Shanksters killed it in the pirate play.
Minis 1m - They managed to recover 1236 and red support by the open. Well played by Benny and the Ink Jets. ARRRGH, these blimey scoundrels running this market. Saving face no doubt buying up the market after failed EU conference. Now, the big question is can they make it to March. I can guarantee one thing, just like October and recently, the markets will start ramping a few weeks before that meeting.
GL and GB.
ARRRGH Matey - the little Shanksters killed it in the pirate play.
Minis 1m - They managed to recover 1236 and red support by the open. Well played by Benny and the Ink Jets. ARRRGH, these blimey scoundrels running this market. Saving face no doubt buying up the market after failed EU conference. Now, the big question is can they make it to March. I can guarantee one thing, just like October and recently, the markets will start ramping a few weeks before that meeting.
Thursday, December 8, 2011
Afternoon Delight 12/08/11 -
Alright, now why am I harping on all of this doom stuff? Simple, because when the financial meltdown comes, you better be ready. It is not coming you say? Shanky fear mongering you say? Don't think so. I back everything up here. Try this on for size, "“THERE IS NO MEANS OF AVOIDING THE FINAL COLLAPSE OF A BOOM BROUGHT ABOUT BY CREDIT EXPANSION. THE ALTERNATIVE IS ONLY WHETHER THE CRISIS SHOULD COME SOONER AS A RESULT OF A VOLUNTARY ABANDONMENT OF FURTHER CREDIT EXPANSION, OR LATER AS A FINAL OR TOTAL CATASTROPHE OF THE CURRENCY SYSTEM INVOLVED” Ludwig von Mises Egon von Greyerz: There Is No Deus Ex Machina Left | ZeroHedge
Clear? Crystal.
I hope so cause, "French President Nicolas Sarkozy has warned that "never has the risk of disintegration been greater" BBC News - France's Sarkozy warns Europe risks disintegration. All this stuff is from the horse's mouth folks. Sadly most of you still don't get it. I get that. This is a very tough emotional hurdle to cross. The financial world is melting down in front of your eyes, and you are like a deer in the headlights. I suggest you blink and get out of the way.
Clear? Crystal.
I hope so cause, "French President Nicolas Sarkozy has warned that "never has the risk of disintegration been greater" BBC News - France's Sarkozy warns Europe risks disintegration. All this stuff is from the horse's mouth folks. Sadly most of you still don't get it. I get that. This is a very tough emotional hurdle to cross. The financial world is melting down in front of your eyes, and you are like a deer in the headlights. I suggest you blink and get out of the way.
Morning post 12/08/11, SPX
I went hard on y'all with the AD Internment post last night and for good reason. The cleptoracy is taking over. I really do not know how else to approach this other than to tell you that his crap has gone from fringe conspiracy to in your face US Senate bills in record time. It can no longer be denied. Blogs used to avoid discussing this stuff for fear of being ridiculed and running readers off. Now, if you don't discuss this I believe you are doing the readers a great disservice.
If you conservative 50%ers that can't get that this stuff is real and can't quite get over the hump need proof beyond the National Defense Authorization Act signed last week and Detention Camp Order Follows Preparations For Civil Unrest I can't help you.
I ask you to read Corzine's testimony to Congress. "It is extremely difficult for me to reconstruct the events that occurred during the chaotic days and the last hours leading up to the bankruptcy filing....I simply do not know where the money is" Presenting Jon Corzine's Complete Testimony To Congress | ZeroHedge.
If you conservative 50%ers that can't get that this stuff is real and can't quite get over the hump need proof beyond the National Defense Authorization Act signed last week and Detention Camp Order Follows Preparations For Civil Unrest I can't help you.
I ask you to read Corzine's testimony to Congress. "It is extremely difficult for me to reconstruct the events that occurred during the chaotic days and the last hours leading up to the bankruptcy filing....I simply do not know where the money is" Presenting Jon Corzine's Complete Testimony To Congress | ZeroHedge.
Wednesday, December 7, 2011
Afternoon Delight 12/07/11 - Internment Time!
Sad, on this day the anniversary of Pearl Harbor, the event that led to the Japanese Americans to be interned for no reason other than being Japanese, that this story is posted - "The revelation that Halliburton subsidiary KBR is seeking sub-contractors to staff and outfit “emergency environment” camps located in five regions of the United States follows preparations over the last three years to deal with riots inside the United States that have already spread throughout Europe, North Africa and the Middle East." Detention Camp Order Follows Preparations For Civil Unrest Alex Jones' Infowars.
Yes, I led with a police state post and for a darn good reason. To those of you that write off this as crap or impossible, I highly suggest you read that article. It is all there in black and white. From government documents to presidential directives, this is real and it is happening NOW. They are preparing for something large. Really large political unrest is what that appears to be, which would be caused by a collapse in the global financial system.
Yes, I led with a police state post and for a darn good reason. To those of you that write off this as crap or impossible, I highly suggest you read that article. It is all there in black and white. From government documents to presidential directives, this is real and it is happening NOW. They are preparing for something large. Really large political unrest is what that appears to be, which would be caused by a collapse in the global financial system.
Morning Post 12/07/11, SPX
Let's keep this simple this morning. The most recent post from Zero Hedge says it all, "We are there now, in other words, we have just experienced a behind the scenes Bear-type event. What is disturbing is just how fast the rate of change was this time around compared to before, when it took months to get to $50 billion. Now, it was one week. When "Lehman v2.0" hits and it will hit, the next step function in the Fed's global bailout will be so big and so fast, it will induce vertigo." We Just Had A "Rerun" Of Bear Stearns: When Is Lehman Coming? | ZeroHedge
As I have called and with DB's post yesterday, they need an "event" before the massive easing comes. We're close, but we've also been close for years now. Put it another way, every day we inch closer to the inevitable, but no one knows when that will be, we just know it will be. What used to be months between blow ups is now weeks or days. The mounting crisis is almost fully compressed and with each day the vice moves another turn. Sooner than later implosion happens.
If this is true, ECB Confirms Shadow Banking System In Europe In Tatters | ZeroHedge, then you will see some really dirty laundry come out soon and the situation is at critical stage. Where the behind the scenes fixes were manufactured is busted or locked up, then that is essentially taking away a vital organ that allowed money to flow.
And for the icing on the cake, "In other words, as we have been saying, the funding squeeze has now managed to shift away from USDs and is impacting the EUR market itself, something the Fed has no control over." European Banks Dash For Fed Cash As Dollar Swap Usage Soars, Funding Squeeze Now Shifts To Euros | ZeroHedge. And if the Fed has no control over it, then .........
Duck and Cover is in full effect here. STB has been telling you for months it is all about liquidity. When they run out, everyone runs out and everything stops. If you do not have cash (and food) at home by now you better get it soon. This will not be an easy fix and will require an unprecedented shutdown of the global financial system. The only way to clear the slate and open up flow with bee for (as STB has been predicting for years) massive default. That will be to just get the funds flowing again.
STB has been holding out all week and last knowing they would be either delivering rumors or some sort of BS plan by the 9th. That has been the wise move. At this time price is beginning to tell you the market is wary of the end result. Divergences on the 4hr down are screaming sell. We all know that whatever they come up with to save the system will be futile, so it would only delay the inevitable. Sadly that is the game we have to play. If it were not for the EU meeting, I'd be balls deep short here.
So, back to the Shanky call, crash, war and massive stimulus should be the game plan. My November swoon worked but did not get me to 1040. Maybe I should have given more credence to the EOY prints and the Christmas rally. 1040 is coming and it should not take long to get there once the fall gets started.
Minis 4hr - There is basically no support under 1236 for almost 100 points.
SPX Daily - Tons of resistance at this point and little support below 1220. MACD looks sick.
Bullish Percent SPX - Something is not right here for sure.
Minis 1m - after the BS pop last night (just another manipulated fake out on rumor driven news) the minis have slid 13 to pink diagonal support at 1252 pushing the lower Vband down. 1257 does not want to let go. If that pink support diagonal goes so does the market. They will most likely have a backtest of this area before anything major. They still have until the 9th to generate market ramping rumors.
Remember the Reason for the season!
GL and GB.
As I have called and with DB's post yesterday, they need an "event" before the massive easing comes. We're close, but we've also been close for years now. Put it another way, every day we inch closer to the inevitable, but no one knows when that will be, we just know it will be. What used to be months between blow ups is now weeks or days. The mounting crisis is almost fully compressed and with each day the vice moves another turn. Sooner than later implosion happens.
If this is true, ECB Confirms Shadow Banking System In Europe In Tatters | ZeroHedge, then you will see some really dirty laundry come out soon and the situation is at critical stage. Where the behind the scenes fixes were manufactured is busted or locked up, then that is essentially taking away a vital organ that allowed money to flow.
And for the icing on the cake, "In other words, as we have been saying, the funding squeeze has now managed to shift away from USDs and is impacting the EUR market itself, something the Fed has no control over." European Banks Dash For Fed Cash As Dollar Swap Usage Soars, Funding Squeeze Now Shifts To Euros | ZeroHedge. And if the Fed has no control over it, then .........
Duck and Cover is in full effect here. STB has been telling you for months it is all about liquidity. When they run out, everyone runs out and everything stops. If you do not have cash (and food) at home by now you better get it soon. This will not be an easy fix and will require an unprecedented shutdown of the global financial system. The only way to clear the slate and open up flow with bee for (as STB has been predicting for years) massive default. That will be to just get the funds flowing again.
STB has been holding out all week and last knowing they would be either delivering rumors or some sort of BS plan by the 9th. That has been the wise move. At this time price is beginning to tell you the market is wary of the end result. Divergences on the 4hr down are screaming sell. We all know that whatever they come up with to save the system will be futile, so it would only delay the inevitable. Sadly that is the game we have to play. If it were not for the EU meeting, I'd be balls deep short here.
So, back to the Shanky call, crash, war and massive stimulus should be the game plan. My November swoon worked but did not get me to 1040. Maybe I should have given more credence to the EOY prints and the Christmas rally. 1040 is coming and it should not take long to get there once the fall gets started.
Minis 4hr - There is basically no support under 1236 for almost 100 points.
SPX Daily - Tons of resistance at this point and little support below 1220. MACD looks sick.
Bullish Percent SPX - Something is not right here for sure.
Minis 1m - after the BS pop last night (just another manipulated fake out on rumor driven news) the minis have slid 13 to pink diagonal support at 1252 pushing the lower Vband down. 1257 does not want to let go. If that pink support diagonal goes so does the market. They will most likely have a backtest of this area before anything major. They still have until the 9th to generate market ramping rumors.
Remember the Reason for the season!
GL and GB.
Tuesday, December 6, 2011
Afternoon Delight 12/06/11 - Epic Fail
After you read this you decide if we're in the midst of a major depression or not.
Also let me apologize for the length of these, it is just that everything I put in these posts is vital to know. You sure do not hear any of this on the lamestream media. Believe it or not, I usually trim these AD's down.
This morning I went off briefly on the failing global Ponzi scheme that will bring down the global financial system. This was posted to Zero hedge this afternoon, Guest Post: A Very Subtle Form Of Theft | ZeroHedge
"Governments around the world are in similar situations right now with their own public sector Ponzi schemes. Faced with failed auctions, declining demand, and rising yields, politicians are having to resort to desperate measures.
Like any good scam artist, they’re appealing to the masses first; all over Europe, governments are sponsoring new marketing campaigns suggesting that it’s people’s patriotic duty to buy government debt.
In Spain, they’re actually issuing instruments called ‘Bonos Patrioticos,’ or ‘patriotic bonds’. Ad campaigns say that the bonds are “good for you, good for the future.”"
Also let me apologize for the length of these, it is just that everything I put in these posts is vital to know. You sure do not hear any of this on the lamestream media. Believe it or not, I usually trim these AD's down.
This morning I went off briefly on the failing global Ponzi scheme that will bring down the global financial system. This was posted to Zero hedge this afternoon, Guest Post: A Very Subtle Form Of Theft | ZeroHedge
"Governments around the world are in similar situations right now with their own public sector Ponzi schemes. Faced with failed auctions, declining demand, and rising yields, politicians are having to resort to desperate measures.
Like any good scam artist, they’re appealing to the masses first; all over Europe, governments are sponsoring new marketing campaigns suggesting that it’s people’s patriotic duty to buy government debt.
In Spain, they’re actually issuing instruments called ‘Bonos Patrioticos,’ or ‘patriotic bonds’. Ad campaigns say that the bonds are “good for you, good for the future.”"
Morning Post 12/06/11 - SPX
Perpetuating the Ponzi. Mot of you know this, but for the noobs let me briefly explain. The global financial system is a Ponzi scheme. Think Madoff, It is the US's job to buy things and everyone else needs to make things. In order for this to work they supply us with cash and buy treasuries and we in turn use those funds to buy their stuff. Where the system breaks is when other countries stop buying our treasuries and become net sellers. Then we have to print money, thus deflating our currency, to buy our own treasuries (monetization - which Geitner and Ben said would not happen).
Yes, this is crude and short explanation, but it catches the basic premise of what the real problems are. This is the crux of all the issues at this time. The only answer left is for everyone to print more money to pay off the massive debts incurred over the past 10 years and to support the sensational entitlement programs that the citizens rely on.
The global Ponzi is dead. There are no more resources to buy everyone's bonds to support all the economies. All funds simply go to service debt now. Thus you hear to save the EU it needs to print, and Germany (bless their souls) resists after experiencing the Wiemar period of hyperinflation after WWII knowing the devastating effects of what that will do.
Yes, this is crude and short explanation, but it catches the basic premise of what the real problems are. This is the crux of all the issues at this time. The only answer left is for everyone to print more money to pay off the massive debts incurred over the past 10 years and to support the sensational entitlement programs that the citizens rely on.
The global Ponzi is dead. There are no more resources to buy everyone's bonds to support all the economies. All funds simply go to service debt now. Thus you hear to save the EU it needs to print, and Germany (bless their souls) resists after experiencing the Wiemar period of hyperinflation after WWII knowing the devastating effects of what that will do.
Monday, December 5, 2011
Afternoon Delight 12/05/11 - Biding Time
STB loves being ahead of the curve with my predictions on market and political movements. I've got a pretty sporty track record or you would not be here and as you all know I love getting confirmation from the experts or the markets after I go on the record. When this showed up this afternoon, I got a big smile on my face. "As Deutsche Bank suggested earlier, the ECB needs a market plunge to justify an intervention. Hence, here is the ECB's very own Nowotny doing all he can do to precipitate a, you go it, market plunge:" ECB's Nowotny Slams Door Shut | ZeroHedge
There is one problem with the above, they will not let the market plunge. My November swoon call became a 12% move (I'll take it) that they promptly ended last Monday with the coordinated central bank intervention to stave off the next LEH crisis out of France.
There is one problem with the above, they will not let the market plunge. My November swoon call became a 12% move (I'll take it) that they promptly ended last Monday with the coordinated central bank intervention to stave off the next LEH crisis out of France.
Morning Post 12/05/11, SPX
STB running a bit behind this morning, sorry.
Gonna be a massive AD tonight, so light on the news this AM. The news and market are really flowing into my hypothesis, I just can't get the market to drop and cooperate quite yet.
Must read - They are loading up the Fed with easing friendly presidents - When Doves Laugh: 4 Weeks Until The Quiet Coup In The Fed Gives QE3 A Green Light | ZeroHedge
You need to see this and note the dates in it. All potential market movers - Complete Summary Of What To Expect From Europe This Week | ZeroHedge
It is all about liquidity! European Interbank Liquidity Deterioration Spikes Despite Surge In Italian Bonds | ZeroHedge
Gonna be a massive AD tonight, so light on the news this AM. The news and market are really flowing into my hypothesis, I just can't get the market to drop and cooperate quite yet.
Must read - They are loading up the Fed with easing friendly presidents - When Doves Laugh: 4 Weeks Until The Quiet Coup In The Fed Gives QE3 A Green Light | ZeroHedge
You need to see this and note the dates in it. All potential market movers - Complete Summary Of What To Expect From Europe This Week | ZeroHedge
It is all about liquidity! European Interbank Liquidity Deterioration Spikes Despite Surge In Italian Bonds | ZeroHedge
Friday, December 2, 2011
Morning Post - 12/02/11, SPX
Let's make this simple -
"Today we got the update for the two key ECB liquidity lines for the day after the bailout. And things are actually much worse than even we expected." So Much For The Bailout - European Funding Situation Worst Since March, As ECB Deposits And Emergency Loans Soar | ZeroHedge
Things are worse than expected and as evidenced Monday by the central planning stick save. This market can collapse at any moment. My daily readers know that we're all doomed and know that these band aids will not solve the structural debt issues facing the globe. It is only a matter of time, but what do we as investors do in the mean time?
Well, we all know by now the markets are rigged and will do whatever they need for them to. Do you need any more evidence than Monday and Wednesday of this week? The brain-trusts in the EU have till December 9th to come up with a plan. Where have we heard this before? Oh yeah! That's right, the October record rally into what would be a sure fire solution to the crisis when the ECB and the sovereigns were to have a remedy by October 23rd.
"Today we got the update for the two key ECB liquidity lines for the day after the bailout. And things are actually much worse than even we expected." So Much For The Bailout - European Funding Situation Worst Since March, As ECB Deposits And Emergency Loans Soar | ZeroHedge
Things are worse than expected and as evidenced Monday by the central planning stick save. This market can collapse at any moment. My daily readers know that we're all doomed and know that these band aids will not solve the structural debt issues facing the globe. It is only a matter of time, but what do we as investors do in the mean time?
Well, we all know by now the markets are rigged and will do whatever they need for them to. Do you need any more evidence than Monday and Wednesday of this week? The brain-trusts in the EU have till December 9th to come up with a plan. Where have we heard this before? Oh yeah! That's right, the October record rally into what would be a sure fire solution to the crisis when the ECB and the sovereigns were to have a remedy by October 23rd.
Thursday, December 1, 2011
Afternoon delight 12/01/11 - And .....
And.... well....We're waiting...... So, bout the follow thru to that near 500 point ramp job yesterday? Well? Horse hockey! Just wait for the jobs number tomorrow, they need a good one. As discussed, none of the numbers relating to any sort of economic or financial data can be viewed without skepticism, Zero Hedge has a humerus bend to that with Predicting Tomorrow's NFP Based On The US 4-Sigma Beat Model of "Truth": +210,000 Jobs | ZeroHedge.
"Don’t get flustered by the terminology of “dollar swap lines” above. Here’s a more simple explanation: Central banks around the globe have acted in desperation to boost liquidity in the system, which has sparked a rally in equities." Central Banks’ Latest Move Shows Desperation | ZeroHedge
Must watch series of videos (related to the ones I had in yesterday's AD) with Dylan Vrabel and Max Keiser. Discussing the Debunking Money series with Max | Council on Renewal. This interview is right at one year old, but still as relevant as ever. It explains things in a manner that everyone can understand.
"Don’t get flustered by the terminology of “dollar swap lines” above. Here’s a more simple explanation: Central banks around the globe have acted in desperation to boost liquidity in the system, which has sparked a rally in equities." Central Banks’ Latest Move Shows Desperation | ZeroHedge
Must watch series of videos (related to the ones I had in yesterday's AD) with Dylan Vrabel and Max Keiser. Discussing the Debunking Money series with Max | Council on Renewal. This interview is right at one year old, but still as relevant as ever. It explains things in a manner that everyone can understand.
Morning Post 12/01/11, SPX
If you want news, go read the AD the past few nights. I'm getting a bit tired or reporting all the BS that happens everyday in these rigged markets. Rigged? Shanky, come on man! OK, try this for your daily dose of riggedness. What did the ADP numbers tell us the other day? Super bullish. Right at a time the markets needed a lift. What is reality (soon to be revised even higher as they always are) "After a few brief weeks with a 3 handle in initial claims, initial layoffs once again jumped over 400k, to 402,000 in the Thanksgiving shortened week." Initial Jobless Claims Back Over 400K, Prior Revised Higher As 91% Of The Time | ZeroHedge
As for the huge stick save ramp that pulled the market off the 12,000 foot cliff this week. The ramp generated because they staved off a true disaster and fixed nothing. "Don’t get flustered by the terminology of “dollar swap lines” above. Here’s a more simple explanation: Central banks around the globe have acted in desperation to boost liquidity in the system, which has sparked a rally in equities." Central Banks’ Latest Move Shows Desperation | ZeroHedge
Minis 5m - Yesterday in the comments (I tell you post readers all the time I do most of my "calling" and give some of my best work down there) I said, "Bear case - 1236 holding. I see backtest of the wedge (all of November - thin green can be seen on the minis chart above) and the apex of that wedge today at 1246 at 5:00. Hmmmmm a Shanky point? Should be noted. That is also the intersection of the green channel upper resistance with that wedge. 1242 would measure C=A to complete the ABC. 1245 IHns (2) target above 1230 IHnS(1) target. 1236 and 1257 major resistance points.
As for the huge stick save ramp that pulled the market off the 12,000 foot cliff this week. The ramp generated because they staved off a true disaster and fixed nothing. "Don’t get flustered by the terminology of “dollar swap lines” above. Here’s a more simple explanation: Central banks around the globe have acted in desperation to boost liquidity in the system, which has sparked a rally in equities." Central Banks’ Latest Move Shows Desperation | ZeroHedge
Minis 5m - Yesterday in the comments (I tell you post readers all the time I do most of my "calling" and give some of my best work down there) I said, "Bear case - 1236 holding. I see backtest of the wedge (all of November - thin green can be seen on the minis chart above) and the apex of that wedge today at 1246 at 5:00. Hmmmmm a Shanky point? Should be noted. That is also the intersection of the green channel upper resistance with that wedge. 1242 would measure C=A to complete the ABC. 1245 IHns (2) target above 1230 IHnS(1) target. 1236 and 1257 major resistance points.
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