Thursday, December 29, 2011

Morning Post 12/29/11, SPX

STB wanted to get thru opex and the 23rd then "all bets were off". This low volume holiday week is a dangerous time to be betting on the market. Heck, any week has become dangerous for that matter. The HFT algo bots controlling the system, the Fed printing to keep the illusion all is well alive, the ECB is "not" printing and  all it takes is a meaningless rumor to move this market up 1% (never down on bad news mind you) in a matter of minutes makes for a bad mix.

I'm enjoying vacation. Although I have been under the weather and there is less snow than I have seen in my 20 years of coming here (that is a huge deal as water supply issues in the west may be a problem this year) we're still rolling along having a good time. Looks like some snow will be coming today. I'm enjoying a break from the doom and gloom, but have no fear I'll be back with a vengeance soon.

Daily BB's narrowing quickly indicating some volatility is on the way. Reversal off of solid resistance following the doji. Looks like 1220 area is first solid support. The explosion of the dollar and the implosion of TNX yesterday were not welcomed by the markets.

SPX 60m - A little more refined and drilled down view shows the wedge overthrow and current backtest support here. The is the area I was mentioning yesterday as a last shot of hope for the bulls and possibly a great starting point for the bears. If this support fails it is all over for a while I think.

Minis - That yellow diagonal is the same upper resistance as in the SPX charts above. Interaction with it is clear. If this fails there is little to stop price from moving south rapidly. This move should get sub 1200 and take out prior lows is not far worse.

This is what the backyard looked like last year. Not near as much snow this year with prairie grass and some dirt still visible which is quite amazing. Actually CB has more open terrain and is fairing better than most resorts out here. Plenty of foot traffic but not much spending as the shop owners I have spoken with say things have stabilized but are nothing like they used to be.

GL and GB.

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