Friday, March 22, 2013

Morning Charts 03/22/13 SPX /ES

Top of the bracket - LS 1&2 and LC - Seriously. My two kids are in the lead? Some dude named Inc rubbed his fingers raw yesterday texting shit to me and is solidly behind me, RC, Sky, MP and others which is where he belongs. Another 16 games today. Fun stuff. Still wide open, but taking early bragging rights for my boys to the bank while I can.

Speaking of March Madness, the Cyprisurfs appear to have the clock running out on them, down by 13 and their lead 3pt shooter just fouled out. The banks are putting a full court press on their deposits. I have to agree with Mark Grant in this ZH post, where was the problem three weeks ago? Stress test results gave no clue of the coming implosion. Nah, never mind, we here at STB know better not to trust any government data nor the MSM and are the wiser for it.

So we are reduced to sit and wait mode anticipating the usual 11th hour solution to arrive as it always seems to do. The market surely seems to be expecting this no matter the news to the contrary. Irony? The markets react positively to Greece coming to the rescue. Greece? We've always known that Greece is nothing more than a conduit to funnel money throughout the Euro Zone (much like AIG and TARP). It's still funny that Greece is going to absorb some of the bad banks.

I honestly don't get the calmness of the markets. Fear? What fear? What that says to me is that the complacency the Fed will fix all is firmly in place, the markets are totally rigged, retail has checked out and anything traditional related to the markets is dead. Here we sit on the precipice of a country (no matter how small) about to go bankrupt four years into the "recovery", and the markets at or near all time highs are acting like this is a non event. Whatever.

On to the markets -

Daily SPX - The charts are ready for a break south now or next week. We'll speculate more on what could happen and when AFTER it happens. I'm not putting any carts ahead of horses here just yet. At this time I suspect I will call my final top today or this weekend, cause what's gonna happen after these banks open ain't gonna be pretty. I'll try and remain in composure mode preaching patience and letting trades come to you. Remember, these assholes are best when times are darkest.

OK, I'm totally confused - is there a gap or is there not a gap in the minis? Futures are up over 4 but then there is this -

But then there is this - no gap. I'm guessing based on the futures the 5m chart is right. Either way ToS is screwed up which is rare.

The main thing you need to take from the second chart above is that all that support cracked last night with the 37 level barely hanging on. The 41 area has 5 support points in play with 37 s/r just below as a backup. Potter and the PPT appear to be rising to the occasion this morning giving the impression that all is well pushing the futures up. Don't believe them.

They've bought time yet again. We have to wait till the banks open and see the results. We can't jump to conclusions no matter how big the storm is on the radar. We're accustomed to 11th hour stick saves. That said, this time a serious storm is going to hit. IMO this is another test of the system much like the O-MFG and PPG events were here. How much can they get away with and how are they supposed to manage such situations? This is another test run.

Enjoy the weekend.

GL and GB!

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