Tuesday, March 5, 2013

Looking at all the Tops 03/05/13 SPX /ES

And awaaaaay we gooooo

Whatever is all I have to say this morning.

Minis 4hr - Higher highs are always welcomed in this cat v. mouse game. Ascending triangle (yellow) targets 1566 area. The last one nailed the 1530 target, so there is little reason (combined with QEternity) that this target will be missed either. This move got me as I was expecting consolidation yesterday and today, but nooooo. Yesterday near term upper diagonal resistance was destroyed and later in the day they took out both pink and white channel resistance diagonals. Strong? Insane move? This is nuts.

Lets look at some markets in relation to all time highs and current formations. My basic conclusion is that the markets can literally top at any moment (catalyst), but they look like they could run for the rest of the year if they can manage a true breakout.

SPY - You will see this recurring channel/wedge formation in all the markets. the wedge at the all time highs marks the perfect major top, but what will be the catalyst or event that stops the Fed and QEternity? Just ballparking this chart and the channel, if it were to make it to the upper resistance diagonal again this thing could make 170 easy.

RUT - Already at all time highs (thank you Chairsatan), another instance with a completed wedge, but also a long term resistance diagonal just above price that may just be the magnet to the market's steel.

DOW - 71 points to an all time high, I think the dogs have got the scent and are moving in for the kill. Again, completed rising wedge inside rising channel. Ever thought about DOW 17,000?

NASDAQ - Channeling into upper resistance (without the wind (AAPL) beneath its wings).

TNX - Another, possibly the most ominous, ending formation.

UST - and this chart? Will the bond vigilantes have anything to say? They are speaking loudly now. This is an ending formation (like TNX above) that has begun to break down already.

Bottom line is we're at a point where the markets are overbought and undeservedly (based on every economic condition known to man) are at extreme levels. Each index is at or near all time highs with ending formations or resistance points in the area. Alas, the rising channels indicate that if the highs are taken out you MUST respect the point that prices could be about to have a banner year. This is truly a bizarro point in market history. Can the Fed, the algos and an unregulated market continue to push? If past history is anything to go on I'd say yes until something (catalyst) stops them. Technically, this is the point to start looking short, as in really short.

Have a good day.

GL and GB!

No comments:

Post a Comment

Keep it civil and respectful to others.