Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Morning Charts 11/14/12 SPX /ES

The world is crumbling but the markets do not care. Money and the money makers, that is what it is all about on Wall St. and in DC, screw the rest. I got news for you dear reader, the ship is going down and they are taking all the lifeboats.

With Europe Is On Strike As Its Economy Continues To Implode and White House ‘secede’ petitions reach 675,000 signatures, 50-state participation, (sign your states petition here - can I get an AMEN-ah!) you have to wonder just how the markets hold up so well at unprecedented times like these? Fiscal cliff? HA! Congress laughs at such things. They will just spend even more! Ha Ha Ha! All is well, Obummer said so.

Now, before you sign that petition you need to know the following. IF the globalists win, your signature on that petition might as well be your reservation to a FEMA center or reeducation camp (yes, those places are real). You may as well be walking up to the front desk and saying, "Hi, I'm a patriot and lover of liberty. Will you please add me to the terrorist list. You can put my name right by the al Qaeda leaders." No fly lists, DHS detention centers, you name it, your lovely government running the new nanny state will make sure you get your extra fluoride and lithium next week after they take your guns of course.

CNBS this morning actually reads like an obituary. Pretty dire stuff across all headlines. Strong stuff for the market's number one cheerleader and stimulus recipient. The post I am most interested in is Markets to Spike ‘One Last’ Time: Nomura's Janjuah. This topic seems to have captured the minds of most STB readers and is discussed in the comments here almost every day.

You all know that I struggled mightily with the last top and whether to make the top call there or not. I have not yet and am beginning to regret it. We're too close to the time period (first quarter 2013) that I have been pointing to as the end for well over a year now. Why do I hold out and why have I not taken the bait on any top thus far? The Fed of course. The markets are 100% rigged and as long as they can print and until a catalyst happens that will lead to my "event" they maintain control. Basically I am scared shitless of the Fed and for a good reason.

The Daily SPX chart below shows what I believe as the one last pop to the E point of the wedge. The final wedge to complete the multi-year formation, setting the stage for the next and last great fall. Can they move it up one last time? Of course they can. The friggin devil could show up (if he has not already) and they could make the markets think that was good news (let's not go there this morning).

I honestly think we've topped but can't call it yet. Janjuah is right, there will be one last pop, but that will be only a bull trap. Will it make a higher high I do not know, but one thing for sure is that will be the last top for at least a decade if ever (assuming the markets totally implode). I hope you realize they are going to steal everything.

The minis hold at 1374. I've talked about this level for months. This is my Mendoza line and where I believe the real (as in underlying) top lies. This was the top of the QE2 run in May of 11. The markets should have top topped in April of this year at the 1374 double top.

As STB always does, I walk the markets down. I am not as bold as I used to be in calling numbers cause the Fed has made predicting things rather tedious. This is a very very important level. Below this and the markets have proven to have little support for another hundred SPX points (that's 1,000 DOW points). I'm not sure the markets can handle another scare, and the Fed knows this as well. If we crack here, momo could really pick up and the word "flash" will be in vogue in a nanosecond.

Let's see if the Fed has enough left in the tank to hold price here (or even lift it one last time). I don't believe they do, but as they have proven time and again, never doubt the Fed and its abilities. As always, remain patient, do not force the trade or trade cause something 'must happen". Let the move come to you. It will. Don't be afraid to miss the first 1 or 2%. There will be plenty of opportunity to make a killing (until they outlaw shorts). The most important thing is to get the trade right. Till then I continue to scalp long and short waiting on my catalyst.

More charts below as usual.

In case you don't live in Australia and missed this earlier today - 'Diamond Ring' solar eclipse plunges Australia into darkness. Signs of the times folks.

GL and GB!

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