Friday, August 17, 2012

Morning Charts 08/17/12 SPX /ES

Not much to say again today as the "promises" or "hopes" (or whatever you want to call the BS) that global leaders are spreading about solving the crisis, that supposedly ended years ago, continue to mislead the markets.

Merkel supports the euro sounds great, but when the Germans vote nein on the issue and decide to not go all Weimar again, things will revert right back to where we were three months ago, or a year ago, or two years ago. So they are gonna save Greece? Riiiigggghhhhtttt, sure they are. A country the size of Alabama with more debt than it can ever hope to afford. Sure, that's gonna happen. Spain, France, Portugal? Oh, OK, we can bail them all out for sure.

All will be well in the land of digital dollars and empty promises till it isn't and that day is coming soon.

SPX Daily - It is what it is. The double top at 1420 would be a classic spot for a major reversal and all the charts say that the potential for a huge turn is coming soon. Note the TNX (pink) ram that occurred into the last top.

Minis 60m - Upper blue rising wedge resistance held price yesterday. Can it hold it again today? This diagonal has been upper resistance for this rising wedge since the June lows. The most notable thing on the chart below is that price broke thru upper thick blue diagonal resistance off the '07 top. That's when you know things are getting a bit out of hand. Most readers know that price does not like the air above 1374 as it lacks the necessary elements for survival. I don;t think they can keep it in this atmosphere too long.

Remain patient my friend. Let the trade come to you. Don't try and force anything. The trade now is the same I have been calling all year, gangsta style hit and run scalps. Get in, get your profit and get out.

I'll update the chartbook this weekend and see if I can nail this turn down. We should be really close. As you know the only thing holding up price now is all the easing BS. I still wait on my catalyst to turn the tide. Can the Fed ease here? No one seems to think so and that leaves great potential for a Jackson Hole sell the news event. I think they need fear to be able to ease, and with the markets at these levels (and the non existent VIX - busted) no fear can be found.

Have a great weekend.

GL and GB!

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