Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Morning Post 01/03/12, SPX

OK, so who is the Fed bailing out this morning? This pop in the futures just can't be from some good manufacturing report out of China. The last few times this sort of move has happened it was a Fed induced move to combat a near collapse in the EU banking sector.

Don't buy the hype/head fake folks. Yeah, they may make it work for a bit leading the markets higher and granting the all is well illusion a bit more time, but the world is in a world of hurt financially and economically. You name it from the euro to the dollar, from Iran to Syria and all across the globe things are a total mess and these factors will weigh heavily sooner than later.

STB is happy to be back at the desk hammering out the first post of the new year. I won't go all Mayan Calendar on you folks just yet, but you know the doom and gloom will be preached here every day. There is no reason for optimism or "HOPE" or belief that any sort of "CHANGE" will make any difference (what has it gotten us this far?). The one prediction I guarantee 100% is that the debt load of the past 5 years combined with our (US taxpayer) bailout of the world and the corrupt, unregulated and special interest driven government that is owned and operated by the financial powers that be will lead us further into the abyss of debt serfdom.

This will be the most important year of the modern depression era by far. As I have been forecasting the markets either fail at any minute or they get one last massive stimulus to save it thru the election and possibly into early 2013 (as the best case scenario).

In this chart I have been showing for close to a year now you can see the worst and best case scenarios I see playing out. You can also see the bears only fear, intervention (the latest pop). I will readjust this chart soon, but it will look the same as it has since the beginning. My call for a move to 1040 and then the last massive intervention for the greatest stick save of all time still stands.

This move today is setting up another massive divergence in the daily indicators proving the move is weak and unfounded. The bears may need to fret a bit near term as they get this BOY move out of their system. Patience to let this move play out will be rewarded.

The minis are showing a very strong 60m divergence and this move is looking more like a blow off move more than than anything. You can see the blue wedge moving thru orange resistance (some are calling that a neckline of an inverted HnS which is possible). I mentioned last week that the markets were at an interesting point where the bulls needed to make a stand at this point and it would make for an interesting trading period as the bulls must hang on here or else.

STB is looking forward to getting the AD's back up as well. There is so much to cover that is so important. As I mentioned inn the New Years post, this will be the year for involvement. Please do your part to wake up your family, friends and neighbors to the dire times that are to come. This theme above all will dominate STB (as it really has in the past) this year. STB also will do his part to get more info out this year via more posts on varying topics and more market coverage.

Best wishes to all this new year!

GL and GB!

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