Monday, May 17, 2010

Ramp Jobs Are BACK! How To Spot One Coming (and The Dollar)

Ahhh, the joy of guaranteed quick long scalps at the end of the day are just great aren't they! I'm done bitching about them and will instead use them to my advantage to make $$. As I said this morning, "I'm going with the 30m chart and speculate that the bulls are gonna regain some ground, but not much today." Well closing just green about nailed it. Nope, I was not worried, cause I knew I had the "team" backing up my call (and the charts were there for the most part).

Sorry I did not post the turn on the 30m chart when it happened. The divergences were just nasty after the sell off this morning. In How To Know a Turn is Coming 101 (without Shanky telling you), you first learn how to spot divergences. It all started with this nasty one on the 5m chart. The drop this morning set higher lows across the board on all time frame indicators and lower lows in price. From the 5m chart you graduate to higher time frames. In my case I go 15m, then 30m and finally 60m. I'll enter trades on the 15 and 30m confirming the divergence. In this case you did not have many support lines to guide you and targets were tough to come by, but the indicators with divergences rarely lie. Second, you learn the tricks of the manipulators and how they like to prop up incontinent markets via stimulus of any sort (most often with your money). They print, print and print more money and then loan it out for free to the central banks, not to you and me. Getting Screwed By Big Government is a 500 level course that will be discussed in rant form at a later date.

So, what is to come from here? Looks to me like we have a possible small recovery coming. How you count it is your business. A triangle. wedge or ABC corrective, they all come out pretty near the same place. Well, that is if I am right and a harder move up here is coming. There was a good fake out on the 30m chart back in early May, but this chart rarely lies. So a move to somewhere near the C or E points is to be expected. I'll know more when we get there. The one thing to look for will be for a divergence to show up on the indicators on this chart to tell you the turn is coming.

BONUS COVERAGE - The Dollar and UDN.

I'm bringing this here cause if the dollar should fall with any fervor (doubt that) it may (may) have a positive effect on the markets. Look, we all know the end is near and that financial Armageddon is coming, but the MSM would have you believe all is well, no problems here, please move along and the manipulators are still in control. We are going to have to deal with these temporary annoyances till the journey ends. Now, if the EUR continues to implode, ignore all of this. It will implode, but will they give it one last shot of adrenaline (short squeeze) in the heart to try and revive it?

I'm sure with the EUR about to get a 1.24 print (off a 1.228 low this am) is the possible short squeeze coming? You UUP people better watch out and have reasonable stops set. Here is my UDN chart. This is getting a bit out of hand. Severe moves like this will correct, and at this time it looks like a small corrective here is overdue. This may just be a 3 ending and a small 4 corrective or a full 5 may have played out. My dollar target for many months has been $89. I consider $87 in the neighborhood, but not at my target yet. Just keep an eye on things here.

Looking at this chart of the dollar you can see it has blown thru resistance. The duration of the ramps seems to be consistent and this one has been (deservedly so or not) more extreme than any so far. $83.72 was the 61.8% retracement of the fall from grace. Let's see if the dollar can scare $82 again sometime soon on a squeeze. (before the massive large crash that is) GL!