Wednesday, May 19, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

Overseas down, but not as bad as they were. Lots of confusion right now. Specter out, Paul on track to get it. Message being sent and I'd suspect that Washington will get the message loud and clear.

Economic Calendar - CPI was flat. Petrol at 10:30

Earnings Calendar - TGT this am (beat by .04). DE did OK as well. Not many notables left.

Pivot Points - Know 'em.

E-minis - Here is a chart from the 1147.5 top yesterday. Price was rejected by the bull correctives support line, it then came down to close the gap frpm 07 to 12 and is now trading 5 points down in a range from 17 to 04. The red line on the bottom is TL support that runs under the August thru February lows. Looking for price and TL support is getting difficult. the 1040.75 low in February is on the radar. The 1056 flash crash low is in sight as well. Gonna have to digest the charts to get some more accurate destination points. 1108 is the 61% retracement of the rise from February. 1083 is the 38% retracement off the July low. The point I like the most is the fib convergence near the emotional point of 1000. The 38% retracement of the overall rise off 667 is 1000 and the 61% retracement of the rise from July is at 999. Pump then dump has been the recent theme. I can't see any reason for optimism.
EUR/USD - What a difference a week and a fresh trillion can make. Oops, that trillion did not help much. Melt up Monday is clear as day on the left of the chart. Disaster follows for the EUR after that. That big green spike is a rally this morning from 216 to 229 on price(edit - made it as high as 2320). Not sure why. I'm sticking with my call to keep an eye on UDN for a very short tradeable pop. If this can get any sort of relief it should be worth the look if you time it right.
SPX - Is the triangle about to bust a nut south? Is this mega impulse day? If not, it is coming as the triangle I see is playing out. We are one news event from near disaster and those events seem to be coming faster and faster. I'm thinking banking regulation here (if meaningful regulation should ever occur) will be the dagger that kills the beast. We're just gonna have to wait a while for that. As for today's actions, the standard up down possibilities exist. The market is showing great resiliency right now. I guess the news from Europe and the Far East has no bearings on the US markets? The Fed and the BD's are working overtime pumping the algos and HFT bots to perform at their peak efficiency right now.

A lower low at the open might cause a nice divergence on the chart above. Fear is rampant, so buying should be sparse. I'm not buying, are you? Well the CNBS pumpmeisters are doing their best to get you to play the game. The obvious call is down. Everyone is looking for the mega impulse wave south here. Maybe that triangle has to play out. Maybe E truncated and the fall yesterday was 1 of 3 and after a corrective to backtest the triangle it pukes up a lung? Normally (like on May 06) I can get very specific with the call. Not feeling so confident in the downside this am for some reason. These assholes still control the markets running 70% of the volume thru the embedded servers at every exchange. If the sellers are not there, they will ramp it. I believe news is driving the sell side and thus we'll need another news driven event to get the sellers out in force. Have no fear, those events are coming fast and furious. Like I said, if the lower TL cracks look out after a backtest. The outside chance of a throwunder of the triangle and a rally to 75 is still in the cards, but that is remote at best but still worth mentioning.