Friday, May 14, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini (Flash Friday?)

OK, now what? Does it follow thru? the minis are down 9. Anyone thinking Flash Friday? I don't see why not. What catalyst is there to drive it higher as reality sets in? If you did not exit longs yesterday, it is my opinion that you missed the last train station on a long trip down. If you have a financial advisor that is not being very active right now you need to make him active. Do not let him sell you anything (well, maybe a small position in SH single short SPX would be good to hold for a year or twenty). This is the time to go to cash till thengs settle down.

Economic Calendar - Retail sales up this am. 9:15 Industrial Production, Consumer Sentiment at 9:55 and Inventories at 10:00. Not sure how much this matters as the EUR has finally taken it's rightful top spot at the top of the worry list.

E-minis. I have been warning since Wednesday afternoon that this turn was coming. I pretty much nailed the turn yesterday with the RUT post at 12:24 yesterday. Not sure what will stop this fall other than the PPT. Intervention has a chance to really frustrate the bears as the parking break is on and they will not let (or at least tyr not to let) the market get away from them again. New curbs and limits will be set by Monday I think.

There is the wedge (sky blue), the target line, the gap (gray rectangle) and the fib.  I have been giving target ranges from 42 to 22 for a few days now. Well she's parked at 42 now sitting on the P2 (bull corrective) yellow support line. When that line goes I honestly believe it will not cross it again. Aloha P2 as my buddy Rich Cash would say. This is the bull's last stand. Given the fact that global economic turmoil has finally become reality to 95% of the globe (the remaining 5% you can see on CNBS all day long). With 1 in 8 here on food stamps (I think I got that right, yes 1 in 8 - read that again - 1 in 8 on food stamps) and the government and the Fed continuing the great rape of America  we're screwed. If you have any thoughts of being bullsih and recovery, nix 'em.

The big deal, EUR/USD crossed the Mendoza line last night (as predicted here on Shanky's blog - was not that hard LOL) Let the Euro Limbo begin. How low can you go? How low can you go?
The Government has NASA studying the dollar's ascent to see if Fed propellant can be used to cut costs in the space program. I have been posting this triangle scenario and a target of $89 for months (I love it when a plan comes together and makes me look smarter than the average bull). The dollar's demise is not far off. Ride UUP while you can, but please make sure your stops are set. Yes, my targets go as low as the mid 40's.
OK, let's get down to business. Flash Friday? Not sure, but it is a possibility. Everything sucks and we all have seen the world is standing at the gates ready to rush for the exits. I believe that to all but the old timers that staunchly believe in buy and hold is still prudent are already out of the market. Get the hell out if you are not. As for a target, hmmm... First the minis have to bust that yellow P2 support. I'll go with target 1) 1121.5 gap support, target 2, gap fill at 1107.5 and the big banger a lower low 1183. If we get Flash Friday 1038.

If Germany announces to dump the EUR and go to the Mark tonight that will really rock the market. It will be a major event. Be ready, watch out for the PPT and GL!