I wish CNBS would greet the minis down 8 with the same vigor and exuberance as an up 8 day. Bottom line is the world is coming to realize that the great financial Ponzi is imploding starting with the countries with the least amount of paper and ink that can't print their way out of the hole. I am so tired of hearing about insolvent banks raking in gazillions in profit (UBS being the latest). The noteworthy news is about the
worries over sovereign debt (come on folks, like this problem did not just pop up last night, what did the markets finally get the email that there is a slight problem across the Atlantic?) and this eye opener (as they all are) from Zero Hedge
CMBS Delinquencies Hit Fresh Record, Now At $51 Billion, 268% Increase From Prior Year, Don't worry, its not a big deal. I promise.
Economic Calendar - Factory Orders and Pending Home Sales at 10:00. I think Barry speaks around 11.
Earnings Calendar - TWX after the bell may be the most notable.
Pivot Points -
Minis really began falling after the close yesterday and then cranked it down around 7:45 this am. The great question comes from the triangle or is it some sort of falling wedge or neither. Will it throw under and explode up or will it just plummet to the depths only a busted oil rig can exceed? Consolidation is clear as the market is fighting to find the path of least resistance.
SPX 30m - I gave a potential sell on this chart yesterday and I guess it may confirm at the open. The danger to the bears here is the gap down (that these markets love to fill) and the fact that the indicators never topped out sufficiently (IMO). The danger to the bulls is the lower high in price and on the indicators showing a possible extended trend change. The MACD still needs to cross to confirm my sell on this chart. Another must mention is the fact that this market has been turning on a dine lately. Significant buy/sell signals are happening almost daily, so you need to remain nimble. IMHO this is not a place that you can play all the chips on one side or the other and patience must be maintained. In a
great post from Yelnick last night that includes some
nice notes from mole at evil.speculator regarding the VIX, he notes the up/down scenarios and confirms I am seeing.
I remain in a bearish wait and see mode. This triangle consolidation needs to play out. It could breakdown today. Most EWT bears are looking for an impulsive third wave down here that will confirm the Shanky top call. Others are seeing the possibility of the triangle breaking higher and the bull market continuing it's run as this formation leads to higher highs. Can you chase it here? I would not at the open and I would wait to see what happens at the bottom triangle support. Two other things. One may want to look for a backtest of the triangle if it breals south for a good short entry, but if this is a 3 down, that backtest may not happen (note - the same thing can happen if it breaks to the upside).
If it gets hot and heavy I'll post some charts with targets. Thanks for the views and support. GL!
