Monday, May 31, 2010
Minis Down 7
At this time as Asia markets are under pressure. I'll update if things begin to get out of hand. Not sure how it is not worse given total global turmoil building with ECU, Korea, Pakistan, the PIIGS, Israel and Iran. Wait a minute, I know why it is not worse, cause it is a friggin rigged market. LOL, stupid me.
Friday, May 28, 2010
SPX Today
Blogger screwed up the layout on this post sorry.
Is that the wedge cracking?
Backed out some. The red wedge ending in the larger blue wedge for a D point may be the ticket. Thus I still like the fall to 1020 to 1000 which would require a throw under of my lower blue TL.
Is that the wedge cracking?
Backed out some. The red wedge ending in the larger blue wedge for a D point may be the ticket. Thus I still like the fall to 1020 to 1000 which would require a throw under of my lower blue TL. 
Long RUT Channel
To the old timers from K's blog this is the definition of the GSEC. LOL! Price did close below the channel before retracing back into it. Usually a close below indicates a further break to come. It is possible that the sky blue line will become the upper TL for the P3 wave down. That is a long broad slope if it is. The concerns to the shorties on this chart are A) price is back in the channel and B) those indicators are oversold. By no means do I think it could possibly go back to the top. I'm betting that the sky blue line holds for at least a year if not longer.
Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini
Morning from the Florida Panhandle. For now nothing has changed, just as beautiful as ever. Wondering how long BP and the government can keep a lid on just how large the environmental damage will be excuse me, I mean how long the docile, ignorant, self absorbed American Sheeple will remain silent on this issue. With the news of a possible Another Leak, Much Bigger, 5 to 6 Miles Away just how screwed up are things really gonna get? Looking at recent history, the sheeple have been getting financially raped by the government and the big banks for the past two+ years and have done little to combat that, so I expect the masses to continue to sit on their asses as another catastrophe spirals out of control. One simple question regarding the oil spill - why the fuck is anyone still buying BP gas anywhere in the world? Please boycott BP. There are no simple questions regarding the financial crisis.
Economic Calendar - PI this AM slightly disapointing (LOL - likeyou can trust any of these numbers anyway?). Later Chicago PMI at 9:45 then Consumer Sentiment at 9:55.
Pivot Points -
Minis - Down to up now fading some after the PI numbers. Fought thru the 91 resistance level yesterday. The 1100 level is significant.
Charts are at a point they can literally go either way. The daily RSI cracked the resistance line that defined this downtrend. Price has taken out some resistance lines as well. Price is back over 1100. Liquidity and controlled trading are still levitating the markets. All that says up. My gut says up should be out of the question. Common sense says up should be out of the question (well, it has for at least a year now). The 30m and 60m are very toppy and the 1110 double fib gap area (second target) I have been pointing to for a while now is in sight. BUT the daily RSI cross of the resistance line is a strong buy signal (like one of my favorite ones). Are the bulls making their last stand here? Is that really an inverted H&S that broke out yesterday when 91 level was cracked? Wait a minute. Is that daily 200ma gonna smackdown price? WTF?
Here is what I am gonna recommend - Go with the flow on a daily basis right now. If it wants to run, go with it. I still like my 1020 to 1000 area a lot. Maybe this falling wedge that is developing needs a higher D point. Maybe it is not a wedge and price is retracing to backtest the last triangle BD line? Maybe it is in a channel down? Maybe it has bottomed and this corrective is gonna be something more extensive. Maybe the holiday weekend will cause a lackluster trading day that leaves us all with even more questions.
I can promise the 30m will trigger a sell signal early today. The should provide a good short entry opp for a day trade. Will that signal the top to this move and a plunge to my final target range? Will the anticipated low volume Friday before a holiday weekend allow the bulls to step in and ramp it up even more after that 30m cycles thru today?
All are valid questions and concerns. Shanky is a notorious conservative investor and right now Shanky is saying to wait it out till the trend is clear. So you miss a day. BFD, there are plenty more to come. As a bear my main concern is that RSI cross on the daily chart. That is notoriously bullish. I'm kinda going against my religion not screaming reversal here with that signal. In other words my gut is over ruling conventional wisdom and tried and true TA. That says I'm conflicted. Not good. In these cases I back off and day trade only. I am 100% in cash now.
I'll be working today. I'll post some charts when and if appropriate. Sorry for the confusion, but I'm sure you understand. Sometimes when you have to back off and let things settle. Now, with the holiday weekend upon us, is a good time to do that. Lighten up some. Take some profits. Make sure your stops are set. Review your trades and strategies.
Memorial Day is most likely the most important day we observe. Those that fought and died for our freedom should never be forgotten. You might get a good rant out of this from me as we as a nation have most likely severely disappointed the dead. Rolling over in their graves would be an understatement.
Economic Calendar - PI this AM slightly disapointing (LOL - likeyou can trust any of these numbers anyway?). Later Chicago PMI at 9:45 then Consumer Sentiment at 9:55.
Pivot Points -
Minis - Down to up now fading some after the PI numbers. Fought thru the 91 resistance level yesterday. The 1100 level is significant.
Charts are at a point they can literally go either way. The daily RSI cracked the resistance line that defined this downtrend. Price has taken out some resistance lines as well. Price is back over 1100. Liquidity and controlled trading are still levitating the markets. All that says up. My gut says up should be out of the question. Common sense says up should be out of the question (well, it has for at least a year now). The 30m and 60m are very toppy and the 1110 double fib gap area (second target) I have been pointing to for a while now is in sight. BUT the daily RSI cross of the resistance line is a strong buy signal (like one of my favorite ones). Are the bulls making their last stand here? Is that really an inverted H&S that broke out yesterday when 91 level was cracked? Wait a minute. Is that daily 200ma gonna smackdown price? WTF?
Here is what I am gonna recommend - Go with the flow on a daily basis right now. If it wants to run, go with it. I still like my 1020 to 1000 area a lot. Maybe this falling wedge that is developing needs a higher D point. Maybe it is not a wedge and price is retracing to backtest the last triangle BD line? Maybe it is in a channel down? Maybe it has bottomed and this corrective is gonna be something more extensive. Maybe the holiday weekend will cause a lackluster trading day that leaves us all with even more questions.
I can promise the 30m will trigger a sell signal early today. The should provide a good short entry opp for a day trade. Will that signal the top to this move and a plunge to my final target range? Will the anticipated low volume Friday before a holiday weekend allow the bulls to step in and ramp it up even more after that 30m cycles thru today?
All are valid questions and concerns. Shanky is a notorious conservative investor and right now Shanky is saying to wait it out till the trend is clear. So you miss a day. BFD, there are plenty more to come. As a bear my main concern is that RSI cross on the daily chart. That is notoriously bullish. I'm kinda going against my religion not screaming reversal here with that signal. In other words my gut is over ruling conventional wisdom and tried and true TA. That says I'm conflicted. Not good. In these cases I back off and day trade only. I am 100% in cash now.
I'll be working today. I'll post some charts when and if appropriate. Sorry for the confusion, but I'm sure you understand. Sometimes when you have to back off and let things settle. Now, with the holiday weekend upon us, is a good time to do that. Lighten up some. Take some profits. Make sure your stops are set. Review your trades and strategies.
Memorial Day is most likely the most important day we observe. Those that fought and died for our freedom should never be forgotten. You might get a good rant out of this from me as we as a nation have most likely severely disappointed the dead. Rolling over in their graves would be an understatement.
Thursday, May 27, 2010
Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini
OK, so my (our) fears mentioned last night about financial warfare or terrorism were relieved somewhat when China said they would not hold the world hostage (for now). The markets promptly rallied. Those dealing in fundamental analysis and the markets have been further removed from relevance as news dominates the swings. The market is out of control like the BP oil spill. You see the parallel that can be drawn between the two disasters - Greed and corruption kept the problems from being solved when they should have both been addressed directly. They both wanted a chance to milk the system and see if a further path to profitability could be salvaged. It is my opinion that the government allowed BP time to find a solution to recover the oil instead of forcing then to plug the pipes immediately thus allowing the damage to grow exponentially. Can you now see the trend? Big business trumps you, me the government. Profits and taxes are more important than anything.
Economic Calendar - GDP and Jobless Claims this a.m. and Natgas at 10:30.
Pivot Points - Know 'em
Here is the update on the possible inverted H&S on the minis. Price is now at the same resistance at the 89 to 91 level that shut us down yesterday GDP and Jobs may spoil the party.
SPX - I'm still holding out one last hope that the 1020 to 1100 area will get hit. The minis hit 1092 and promptly got smacked back 10 points with a little help from jobs and GDP numbers. It is beginning to look like the bottom of this move is being set and that bear market upper TL is going to hold. Here is a chart I was tinkering with yesterday. The pink drop happened and now there are the two up scenarios. The chance of a backtest of the BD line (red dashed) is probable to top out this move. The RSI on the daily chart crossing the resistance lines will be my key to get long and out of shorts. GL!
Economic Calendar - GDP and Jobless Claims this a.m. and Natgas at 10:30.
Pivot Points - Know 'em
Here is the update on the possible inverted H&S on the minis. Price is now at the same resistance at the 89 to 91 level that shut us down yesterday GDP and Jobs may spoil the party.
Minis up 14
Who the hell knows why? It is to late for me to try and find out. I'm still worried (as a realist and a bear) that an inverse H&S is forming. Right shoulder coming in now. Not sure if I mentioned this earlier today or not. I hate calling them. In this situation though it kinda works for the ABC corrective. Target near 1142 (there is that number again). I still want my 1020 to 1000 target. We'll just have to see how this move up forms (or if it even forms). See you in the AM.
ODA, I'll have to send you an email with more detail. Sorry for not properly thanking you yet and for not responding earlier. At this time I'd say be careful with those shorts.
ODA, I'll have to send you an email with more detail. Sorry for not properly thanking you yet and for not responding earlier. At this time I'd say be careful with those shorts.
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
How Close To The Edge Are We?
The attorney down the hall told me this morning his Stifel Nicolaus advisor told him the market had bottomed. Ouch. With the Dow Closes Under 10,000 For First Time Since February 7 maybe that bottom call was a bit premature. You really can trust all the information coming from those brokerages, I promise!
Yes, in my office there is an attorney group, an accountant group and little old me. None of these people even care what I do or say. One does listen and he is very happy. One calls me chicken little. The others just move along like nothing is happening. It is amazing how people can be so disjointed from reality. Do these people read anything but the local rag and watch anything other than Fox news? Hell, do they even watch Fox news? The problem may be that they watch CNBS! Funny moment the other day when discussing investments with a friend. I asked if their broker has used SH, SDS or other measures to hedge the recent fall. the blank stare I got after explaining the strategies was priceless.
Even after the latest plummet they are talking correction and great buying opportunity and throwing out various names their advisors have hand picked. I just keep my mouth shut now. I guess their advisors are doing a great job controlling the panic and keeping them in their clutches to drive up fees in these wild and crazy times? Whats $10k or more in commissions over the next few weeks to these guys anyway? Remember, brokers first loyalty is to the mother-ship that pays their performance based bonuses. Then to their wallet and somewhere you come in the picture after that.
On to the news of the day - The most important (other than BP trying to stop the gusher - day 37!) tidbits to me were South Korea On Alert As North Korean Subs Disappear In East Sea and Is China Preparing To Divest Its $630 Billion In Eurozone Bond Holdings? both from ZH.If China starts pulling out of the Eurozone all hell is gonna break lose. Speaking of warfare, while the Korean's spat may be a big deal, the biggest deal is going to be financial blackmail (as already exhibited by our TBTF's on America). China and the large treasury/bond holders now control the fate of nations. In these days where liquidity rules, the mad grab may be on and a grab will only cause a great disturbance in the force. Look for some of these moves to really stress some relationships (not to mention economies).
Most of my readers know the inevitable is coming. The great crash or credit bubble burst (I'm sure CNBS will come up with some cute name with a ring to it). Apparently our leaders are in denial. Mish reports Geithner on "Sustaining the Unsustainable"; Bill Gross, Robert Mundell say Sovereign Default Likely Inevitable where he says (and I agree), "For Europe, $1 trillion is not enough, nor would $10 trillion. There is no plan that can possibly work. But that will not stop politicians from trying. Politicians do not care about math or logic, or the fact that piling on more debt cannot possibly be the cure for a problem of too much debt with no possible way to pay it back." In that post the possibility of sovereign default is mentioned. My long time readers know that I am a firm believer that GLOBAL default leading to massive deflation will be the only way out of this mess. HERE, Bill Gross Discusses Sovereign Debt Default Risk.
Michael Pinto always brings a smile to my face, especially when he's betting there will eb a double dip recession.
Prag Cap brings you thoughts from Rosie in CAN WE EXPECT A 30-40% CORRECTION? "This morning, David Rosenberg discussed the possibility of a 30-40% correction in the equity markets. Rosenberg thinks we could go as low as 850 on the S&P" What is not clear is that on the first wave or not?
Jesse's Cafe American brings to us this nugget Obama Skips Presidential Visit to Arlington National Cemetery on Memorial Day Did you expect anything else from our leader? I guess he's got some other muslim celebration to attend that is more important? Way to inspire the troops big guy! Superior job. Jesse also does a nice job in the Shortly After the Comex Close Gold Is Allowed to Trade Above 1200 post pointing to the blatant manipulation of the shiny metal.
We are on the brink of total collapse. I believe the Fed and Treasury have now lost all control. they are doing their best wrangling job trying to reign in the Eurozone, but those horses are out of the gates now. All the liquidity in the universe won't help now (we've almost used up all the liquidity in the world). At some point it all ends and at that point ...it all ends. It is gonna be really nasty. I suggest gold and silver coins, a months supply of food, a Vespa or bike and a garden. Oh yeah, almost forgot the ammo. No, I am not kidding. when the contagion spreads no country will be immune. The deflation that comes will destroy everything, yes possibly governments and nations as well. When the real crash happens, no one will avoid it's wrath. The great bubble will explode. We can only hope it does not lead to the next great war. What was that date in 2012 the Mayans predicted? Hmmm.......
That is enough for now. I'll be reporting from the gulf coast (Florida panhandle (Seaside to be exact) tomorrow as the span of never ending vacations begins. Florida, Alaska, Colorado all thru July 4th. Have computer and wifi will travel and post and work.
GL and thanks for all the views!
Yes, in my office there is an attorney group, an accountant group and little old me. None of these people even care what I do or say. One does listen and he is very happy. One calls me chicken little. The others just move along like nothing is happening. It is amazing how people can be so disjointed from reality. Do these people read anything but the local rag and watch anything other than Fox news? Hell, do they even watch Fox news? The problem may be that they watch CNBS! Funny moment the other day when discussing investments with a friend. I asked if their broker has used SH, SDS or other measures to hedge the recent fall. the blank stare I got after explaining the strategies was priceless.
Even after the latest plummet they are talking correction and great buying opportunity and throwing out various names their advisors have hand picked. I just keep my mouth shut now. I guess their advisors are doing a great job controlling the panic and keeping them in their clutches to drive up fees in these wild and crazy times? Whats $10k or more in commissions over the next few weeks to these guys anyway? Remember, brokers first loyalty is to the mother-ship that pays their performance based bonuses. Then to their wallet and somewhere you come in the picture after that.
On to the news of the day - The most important (other than BP trying to stop the gusher - day 37!) tidbits to me were South Korea On Alert As North Korean Subs Disappear In East Sea and Is China Preparing To Divest Its $630 Billion In Eurozone Bond Holdings? both from ZH.If China starts pulling out of the Eurozone all hell is gonna break lose. Speaking of warfare, while the Korean's spat may be a big deal, the biggest deal is going to be financial blackmail (as already exhibited by our TBTF's on America). China and the large treasury/bond holders now control the fate of nations. In these days where liquidity rules, the mad grab may be on and a grab will only cause a great disturbance in the force. Look for some of these moves to really stress some relationships (not to mention economies).
Most of my readers know the inevitable is coming. The great crash or credit bubble burst (I'm sure CNBS will come up with some cute name with a ring to it). Apparently our leaders are in denial. Mish reports Geithner on "Sustaining the Unsustainable"; Bill Gross, Robert Mundell say Sovereign Default Likely Inevitable where he says (and I agree), "For Europe, $1 trillion is not enough, nor would $10 trillion. There is no plan that can possibly work. But that will not stop politicians from trying. Politicians do not care about math or logic, or the fact that piling on more debt cannot possibly be the cure for a problem of too much debt with no possible way to pay it back." In that post the possibility of sovereign default is mentioned. My long time readers know that I am a firm believer that GLOBAL default leading to massive deflation will be the only way out of this mess. HERE, Bill Gross Discusses Sovereign Debt Default Risk.
Michael Pinto always brings a smile to my face, especially when he's betting there will eb a double dip recession.
Prag Cap brings you thoughts from Rosie in CAN WE EXPECT A 30-40% CORRECTION? "This morning, David Rosenberg discussed the possibility of a 30-40% correction in the equity markets. Rosenberg thinks we could go as low as 850 on the S&P" What is not clear is that on the first wave or not?
Jesse's Cafe American brings to us this nugget Obama Skips Presidential Visit to Arlington National Cemetery on Memorial Day Did you expect anything else from our leader? I guess he's got some other muslim celebration to attend that is more important? Way to inspire the troops big guy! Superior job. Jesse also does a nice job in the Shortly After the Comex Close Gold Is Allowed to Trade Above 1200 post pointing to the blatant manipulation of the shiny metal.
We are on the brink of total collapse. I believe the Fed and Treasury have now lost all control. they are doing their best wrangling job trying to reign in the Eurozone, but those horses are out of the gates now. All the liquidity in the universe won't help now (we've almost used up all the liquidity in the world). At some point it all ends and at that point ...it all ends. It is gonna be really nasty. I suggest gold and silver coins, a months supply of food, a Vespa or bike and a garden. Oh yeah, almost forgot the ammo. No, I am not kidding. when the contagion spreads no country will be immune. The deflation that comes will destroy everything, yes possibly governments and nations as well. When the real crash happens, no one will avoid it's wrath. The great bubble will explode. We can only hope it does not lead to the next great war. What was that date in 2012 the Mayans predicted? Hmmm.......
That is enough for now. I'll be reporting from the gulf coast (Florida panhandle (Seaside to be exact) tomorrow as the span of never ending vacations begins. Florida, Alaska, Colorado all thru July 4th. Have computer and wifi will travel and post and work.
GL and thanks for all the views!
Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini
OK, Shanky's a little fired up this morning. Hearing Alice Cooper's Schools Out 5 times at 500db on the way to school and playing air guitar like a mad man with your children at 7:35 in the morning will get you a little loosened up.
What's up with this crazy insane market? The way CNBS and all the fund managers see it is all the problems are over and way behind us and the good times are back. We've had our correction and now it is time to march on to new highs. Shanky says not so fast. Even Scarface got taken town at the end, and I'm afraid that this market will make a dive similar to Scarface's plunge into the pond at the end. How quickly we can forget the problems that are all around us.
Economic Calendar - New Homes at 10 and Petrol at 10:30. Durable Goods numbers according to Bloomberg were not all that good, but the minis apparently don't care (remember the good times are BACK!). Tomorrow at 8:30 we get GDP. I'm positive the BLS or whatever bought and paid for agency that calculates this fictitious number will deliver some sort of glorious upside surprise showing just how "strong" our economy is.
Pivot Points - Know 'em
Tough call this morning. Minis are battling resistance, so upside is possible, but might be hard to come by. I'm thinking we have one more small leg down to come that gets us to the 1020 to 1000 area before the bigger correction. The EWT people are calling for the third of a third still to come, but my math does not add up to where it can fit into the count at this time. I know, big bad super bear Shanky is saying no "super drop". Wrong, I'm just saying at this time I don't see where it fits into the manipulated POS market's picture.
Looking at the trusty daily chart, we're still in a down trend till RSI cracks its resistance line. I think that RSI cross of the resistance lines will mark the bottom of 1 of 1 of 3 and thus 3 of 1 may have been a dud on the EWT scale. So one more pop down is still possible here. There is no telling how big this corrective will be. I am really eyeballing the gap, 200ma and fib confluence near the 1110 area. the reaction to the GDP report tomorrow will tell us exactly where we are in the nt trend. I would be cautious with any positions going into that announcement in the morning especially shorts. You think the POS government we have is gonna disappoint?
Daily SPX- I'm not turning bullish, but I am thinking that a larger corrective may be in order sooner than later. I love tracking the daily indicators and unless they are getting ready to embed, then a pop is coming.the possible turn in the MACD histogram with the divergence to price is cause to think a turn is coming as well.
Now, after all that semi bullish gibberish stuff above I have to remind you that the world is falling apart. Trying to pick the rips in a down market is just as hard as playing the dips in an up market. You are picking against the trend. If the EWT people are right and a 3rd of a 3rd is still to come, look out if you are thinking long. It may come like a thief in the night and just clobber you one morning. So, at this time I'm calling for a reversal to the D touch of my falling wedge for what I think is 4 up to possibly either the 1091 area or the 1110 range and then 5 down to 1020 to 1000.
GL out there. Stay nimble. I'll do Oil, Gold, Dollar (possible double top) and Natgas posts soon.
What's up with this crazy insane market? The way CNBS and all the fund managers see it is all the problems are over and way behind us and the good times are back. We've had our correction and now it is time to march on to new highs. Shanky says not so fast. Even Scarface got taken town at the end, and I'm afraid that this market will make a dive similar to Scarface's plunge into the pond at the end. How quickly we can forget the problems that are all around us.
Economic Calendar - New Homes at 10 and Petrol at 10:30. Durable Goods numbers according to Bloomberg were not all that good, but the minis apparently don't care (remember the good times are BACK!). Tomorrow at 8:30 we get GDP. I'm positive the BLS or whatever bought and paid for agency that calculates this fictitious number will deliver some sort of glorious upside surprise showing just how "strong" our economy is.
Pivot Points - Know 'em
Tough call this morning. Minis are battling resistance, so upside is possible, but might be hard to come by. I'm thinking we have one more small leg down to come that gets us to the 1020 to 1000 area before the bigger correction. The EWT people are calling for the third of a third still to come, but my math does not add up to where it can fit into the count at this time. I know, big bad super bear Shanky is saying no "super drop". Wrong, I'm just saying at this time I don't see where it fits into the manipulated POS market's picture.
Looking at the trusty daily chart, we're still in a down trend till RSI cracks its resistance line. I think that RSI cross of the resistance lines will mark the bottom of 1 of 1 of 3 and thus 3 of 1 may have been a dud on the EWT scale. So one more pop down is still possible here. There is no telling how big this corrective will be. I am really eyeballing the gap, 200ma and fib confluence near the 1110 area. the reaction to the GDP report tomorrow will tell us exactly where we are in the nt trend. I would be cautious with any positions going into that announcement in the morning especially shorts. You think the POS government we have is gonna disappoint?
Daily SPX- I'm not turning bullish, but I am thinking that a larger corrective may be in order sooner than later. I love tracking the daily indicators and unless they are getting ready to embed, then a pop is coming.the possible turn in the MACD histogram with the divergence to price is cause to think a turn is coming as well.
Now, after all that semi bullish gibberish stuff above I have to remind you that the world is falling apart. Trying to pick the rips in a down market is just as hard as playing the dips in an up market. You are picking against the trend. If the EWT people are right and a 3rd of a 3rd is still to come, look out if you are thinking long. It may come like a thief in the night and just clobber you one morning. So, at this time I'm calling for a reversal to the D touch of my falling wedge for what I think is 4 up to possibly either the 1091 area or the 1110 range and then 5 down to 1020 to 1000.
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
A Glimpse Inside
I was able to sneak in to get a post done for you. This is what my brain looks like. LOL Yes, every line is important. These are what my work charts look like before I clean them up and present them to you.
Lines everywhere as I try to decipher where we are and whats going on. Sure the chart is ugly, but I wanted you to see what its like trying to figure this crud out. OK, at this time this is the best I have got. I think we possibly just had the C touch on the blue wedge which would have possibly completed the 3rd wave. If not there is a little more weakness to get a 5 of 5 of 3 down here then the corrective. Up for 4 to the top blue line near 1075/1080 or backtest of the last wedge and down for 5. The other option is that we are still in 3 and it really lets go from here. The corrective call here is a little bold if you ask me, but it is what I'm calling. There is no up option other than a corrective at this time. Daily price has fought it's way back above the lower BB which is at 1053. The lower weekly BB is at 1037 which was almost touched this a.m. My 1020 to 995 targets range is still in tact. Price took out the 1044 February low and then the PPT put a break on things. We have entered my target zone for the fall in price (big green circle on the Morning Post not bad if you ask me calling the top and the fall to a specific target range over a month out in time, especially such an aggressive fall), but not on time. My time placement was based on some cycles that have been shortening, so I may miss the time side, but I have already won on the more important price side.
Lines everywhere as I try to decipher where we are and whats going on. Sure the chart is ugly, but I wanted you to see what its like trying to figure this crud out. OK, at this time this is the best I have got. I think we possibly just had the C touch on the blue wedge which would have possibly completed the 3rd wave. If not there is a little more weakness to get a 5 of 5 of 3 down here then the corrective. Up for 4 to the top blue line near 1075/1080 or backtest of the last wedge and down for 5. The other option is that we are still in 3 and it really lets go from here. The corrective call here is a little bold if you ask me, but it is what I'm calling. There is no up option other than a corrective at this time. Daily price has fought it's way back above the lower BB which is at 1053. The lower weekly BB is at 1037 which was almost touched this a.m. My 1020 to 995 targets range is still in tact. Price took out the 1044 February low and then the PPT put a break on things. We have entered my target zone for the fall in price (big green circle on the Morning Post not bad if you ask me calling the top and the fall to a specific target range over a month out in time, especially such an aggressive fall), but not on time. My time placement was based on some cycles that have been shortening, so I may miss the time side, but I have already won on the more important price side.
Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini
Sorry for another quickie this am and then no posts till tomorrow morning. I have EOY school festivities for the little Shankkies this AM and then have to head to the ATL for business that will not have me home till late tonight.
Is this finally the impulsive three of three that we have all been looking for? Futures are recovering somewhat. Fear is real. This is no longer a wall of worry. Everything is broken and it is only a matter of time before it really lets go in a big way.
Bank/sovereign fears are here. "They" have lost control. To many problems to list here now. Contagion is spreading.
The best cart I have is the CPC. I'm gonna speculate that it turns near the red line where 1 of P1 turned near the red line. Speculating on the SPX charts my target area is between 1020 and 990. Sadly, that may prove to be to conservative of a low for 1 of 1 of P3. Remember I have speculated that the first wave of P3 may be the worst of all as capitulation may happen here and not in 3.
The CPC chart is best viewed HERE.
Of course blogger is now not cooperating and will not load the chart. please go to the link above to see it.
SPX target chart for the bottom of this fall. GL - If I can get something out there today I will. My 30m chatr is going to give a sell signal this morning. Below is the daily. The MACD is no where near about to turn. Much more downside to come.
Is this finally the impulsive three of three that we have all been looking for? Futures are recovering somewhat. Fear is real. This is no longer a wall of worry. Everything is broken and it is only a matter of time before it really lets go in a big way.
Bank/sovereign fears are here. "They" have lost control. To many problems to list here now. Contagion is spreading.
The best cart I have is the CPC. I'm gonna speculate that it turns near the red line where 1 of P1 turned near the red line. Speculating on the SPX charts my target area is between 1020 and 990. Sadly, that may prove to be to conservative of a low for 1 of 1 of P3. Remember I have speculated that the first wave of P3 may be the worst of all as capitulation may happen here and not in 3.
The CPC chart is best viewed HERE.
Of course blogger is now not cooperating and will not load the chart. please go to the link above to see it.
SPX target chart for the bottom of this fall. GL - If I can get something out there today I will. My 30m chatr is going to give a sell signal this morning. Below is the daily. The MACD is no where near about to turn. Much more downside to come.
Monday, May 24, 2010
Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini
Bears have taken back Friday's late ramp job and are down 9.75 at this time (update down 2 now). N and S Korea are getting a little more testy with each other. CNBS still spewing positive glorious BS about how things are improving. Don't believe them. Bottom line is the credit bubble must deflate before anything can get any better.
Economic Calendar - Existing Home Sales at 10:00
Pivot Points - Know 'em
I'm sitting in the middle of the road today, sorry. I'm thinking the minis are possibly starting 5 of 1 of 1 of 3 or they are still in the 4 corrective. If in 5 it fits nicely with the third level pivot targets near 43. It is possible based on the three fibs you can throw on this mast recent fall from the 1175 level that the corrective is completed for fall to 51. If not a bounce to the 1100 level should be it for any move north at this time with 1120 being the max possible I see.
SPX bounced when it closed the 1056 gap which was just fine. It was the ramp job in the last 30m of trading that was a load of crap. Friday my triangle target was hit (green arrow where price hit black dashed TL). The two green rectangles are fib correlations that may make nice targets in the 1102 to 1115 range. combined with the daily 200ma is at 1102 you get your upper resistance range. The lower range is bound by the weekly lower BB is at 1048, the weekly 50ma is at 72 and then there is the February low at 1044.50. If the February low goes the bottom may literally fall out.
GL this week. I'm expecting more serious weakness to come, but the question is it now or in a week or two. I do not expect anything much as far as correctives go. The counts vary. One thing not mentioned above is the daily SPX chart indicators. They are oversold. No divergences yet, but their resistance lines are nearing and a cross of those would be bullish. SPXA50 is at 43. I believe NYMO is possibly setting a telling divergence. CPC and CPCE are pretty much off the charts. Given the move in the CPC and it's position, I'd say we're not bottomed for this move yet and the move there has further confirmed the top is in. No bull.
Economic Calendar - Existing Home Sales at 10:00
Pivot Points - Know 'em
I'm sitting in the middle of the road today, sorry. I'm thinking the minis are possibly starting 5 of 1 of 1 of 3 or they are still in the 4 corrective. If in 5 it fits nicely with the third level pivot targets near 43. It is possible based on the three fibs you can throw on this mast recent fall from the 1175 level that the corrective is completed for fall to 51. If not a bounce to the 1100 level should be it for any move north at this time with 1120 being the max possible I see.
SPX bounced when it closed the 1056 gap which was just fine. It was the ramp job in the last 30m of trading that was a load of crap. Friday my triangle target was hit (green arrow where price hit black dashed TL). The two green rectangles are fib correlations that may make nice targets in the 1102 to 1115 range. combined with the daily 200ma is at 1102 you get your upper resistance range. The lower range is bound by the weekly lower BB is at 1048, the weekly 50ma is at 72 and then there is the February low at 1044.50. If the February low goes the bottom may literally fall out.
GL this week. I'm expecting more serious weakness to come, but the question is it now or in a week or two. I do not expect anything much as far as correctives go. The counts vary. One thing not mentioned above is the daily SPX chart indicators. They are oversold. No divergences yet, but their resistance lines are nearing and a cross of those would be bullish. SPXA50 is at 43. I believe NYMO is possibly setting a telling divergence. CPC and CPCE are pretty much off the charts. Given the move in the CPC and it's position, I'd say we're not bottomed for this move yet and the move there has further confirmed the top is in. No bull.
Saturday, May 22, 2010
Shanky's Target
Just a quick post here. I first brought you this target back in the Morning Post on Thursday April, 22. Seems to be on track. Not bad looking a month into the future so far. And for those new readers that missed my top call on the 27th, you may want to hang around. Shanky is on FIRE!
My speculation all along is that this first drop would backtest the bear market upper TL for wave 1, wave 2 would then recover going into the election and wave 3 will kill everything later this year. I have also more recently speculated that wave 1 may be the largest of the three waves as selling may be more intense out of the gates. Still early in the game. I hope to hit the circle. GL everyone!
My speculation all along is that this first drop would backtest the bear market upper TL for wave 1, wave 2 would then recover going into the election and wave 3 will kill everything later this year. I have also more recently speculated that wave 1 may be the largest of the three waves as selling may be more intense out of the gates. Still early in the game. I hope to hit the circle. GL everyone!
Friday, May 21, 2010
Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini
Gotta be a quickie this morning, sorry. Big Shanky has to go on a field trip with Little Shanky (2) to Fort Benning today. Yes, the timing of this sucks, but the little ones are more important. That brings up a Shanky's Blog tender moment. Remember the little things and keep life in perspective. Appreciate those around you and respect life. In times like these, at least for those of us that have a friggin clue about where we are headed, you can get pretty wrapped up in the gloom and doom. This weekend take a step back and try to find some positives.
Minis are bouncing around and have been as low as 61. The last time we had a drop and pop on the minis like this the markets retraced the lows and then popped. On Opex Friday I'm expecting some recovery as the traders try to level out what they can. There is no telling what will happen today. If we are in the third of a third on the EWT count, it plummets. If we are in the first of the third, a pop is coming soon. There is a pretty strong dovergence on the 60m chart that may indicate a corrective coming soon. That was the case late yesterday as well, but then the indicators whipsawed. The weeklys have not bottomed yet. SPXA50 is at 30. That is really low. NYMO is really low after suffering the whipsaw yesterday as well.
The dump at the close yesterday might have been a sign of more to come. On the other hand investors may take a step back today and regroup. The indicators still say down, but they also say oversold. When they start whipsawing divergences that is not good. Reform bill is hurting financials before the bell. All I can say is stay nimble. If there is a recovery I don't expect much of one with 1102 (200ma) being as high as I think it will get. Possibly 1132 if it really gets running. There is no reason to buy here that I can see.
I would recommend not swinging anything to large over the weekend. Things are really bearish and will remain that way. No good news anywhere and only an acceleration of the bad news should happen. We're still in the down trend and you should play it that way.
Sorry for the short post. I'll update all the charts this weekend. Have a great weekend and GL!
Minis are bouncing around and have been as low as 61. The last time we had a drop and pop on the minis like this the markets retraced the lows and then popped. On Opex Friday I'm expecting some recovery as the traders try to level out what they can. There is no telling what will happen today. If we are in the third of a third on the EWT count, it plummets. If we are in the first of the third, a pop is coming soon. There is a pretty strong dovergence on the 60m chart that may indicate a corrective coming soon. That was the case late yesterday as well, but then the indicators whipsawed. The weeklys have not bottomed yet. SPXA50 is at 30. That is really low. NYMO is really low after suffering the whipsaw yesterday as well.
The dump at the close yesterday might have been a sign of more to come. On the other hand investors may take a step back today and regroup. The indicators still say down, but they also say oversold. When they start whipsawing divergences that is not good. Reform bill is hurting financials before the bell. All I can say is stay nimble. If there is a recovery I don't expect much of one with 1102 (200ma) being as high as I think it will get. Possibly 1132 if it really gets running. There is no reason to buy here that I can see.
I would recommend not swinging anything to large over the weekend. Things are really bearish and will remain that way. No good news anywhere and only an acceleration of the bad news should happen. We're still in the down trend and you should play it that way.
Sorry for the short post. I'll update all the charts this weekend. Have a great weekend and GL!
Thursday, May 20, 2010
Crack? Time Will Tell.
Update: No post tonight - Little Shanky has his last game of the year.I'll leave you with this from ZH - Bloodbath "The correction, soon to be crash, is here: the market had a bigger relative open to close move today than it did on May 6. We closed at the day's lows on massive volume, despite definitive central bank intervention, regardless whether it was the SNB, the ECB, or the Fed. The central planners have lost control of the market, and all thanks to the inevitable collapse of hyper capitalist Keynesianism coming out of the formerly most communist country in the world. A day of ironies. And it's not over. Futures are already down another 4 handles. The correction is coming, and it will be a bloodbath. The Fed can not push rates lower. It will print. It is inevitable. It is our destiny." Welcome to a third of a third (super bear move in plain English).
UPDATE: Zero Hedge reads like a market obituary again today. Just get the hell out of the market. If TD Ameitrade is down, you're screwed. Remember to always use SL orders to protect.One of my favorite posts over there today Bill Gross: "Hedge Funds Liquidating To Preserve Capital" Uh, NOT GOOD.
It may only be a B wave, but you never know. 97 to 00 on SPX may not be a bad spot to reenter or add to shorts. That is unless the buss just left the station.Time will tell. Minis somewhat still fighting that 87 support I posted earlier. Here is the INDU 1m chart.
Minis retested VWAP and 38% retrace at 89. Still flirting with the 38% retrace.
Crude (/CL) TODAY! Sadly this will take a light year to show up at the pumps. Talk about a rip off. OBTW, I hope all of you are boycotting BP at this time.
UPDATE: Zero Hedge reads like a market obituary again today. Just get the hell out of the market. If TD Ameitrade is down, you're screwed. Remember to always use SL orders to protect.One of my favorite posts over there today Bill Gross: "Hedge Funds Liquidating To Preserve Capital" Uh, NOT GOOD.
It may only be a B wave, but you never know. 97 to 00 on SPX may not be a bad spot to reenter or add to shorts. That is unless the buss just left the station.Time will tell. Minis somewhat still fighting that 87 support I posted earlier. Here is the INDU 1m chart.
Minis retested VWAP and 38% retrace at 89. Still flirting with the 38% retrace.
Crude (/CL) TODAY! Sadly this will take a light year to show up at the pumps. Talk about a rip off. OBTW, I hope all of you are boycotting BP at this time.
Minis At Support (For Now?)
In the post this a.m. I mentioned the first retracement confluence. the 38% off the July low and the 23% off of the 667 low. Well, here it is. The red line is the support line running under the August thru February lows. That is the 1102 retest (combined with the 200ma on the SPX) that I discussed earlier. This is the best S/R line I can find at this time. You can draw one off of the October lows, but I have not been forced to at this time. 38% retrace off the 47.5 high (the backtest of the P2 support line (yellow) I called the other day) is 1109 and there is resistance in the 1105 area. That gray rectangle was the gap. Former gap resistance would be near 1107. (Just covering all the angles - of course none of this may matter in 10 minutes - either way - LOL). With the markets trading 50:1 to the downside, yet being held up by some form of trading fairy, who the hell knows. It should be at 950 by now IMO. GL!
Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini
Reality will always trump falsified financials. Oil hits 70. Gold hits 1175. Very interesting. Greece and Thailand protests. China in deep shit. Flight to safety is getting ready to enter full throw. Watch the bonds move. Minis off 18 with a low of 1089 (excuse me, as I type I will update this - now at 85 - and now 91!). Everyone has been waiting on the impulsive wave 3. This looks to be as good a start as any and the timing is right on the count. this could get really ugly. To those of you that bit when I called the Shanky top back on April 27th, mucho congratulaciones! Now go hit the donate button if you have not (to those of you that have, mucho gracias! esp to you ODA)
Earnings Calendar - DELL after the close
Economic Calendar - Jobs were bad despite Census hiring. Leading Indicators and Philly Fed at 10:00. Natgas at 10:30.
Pivot Points - Never mind. It has blown thru all of these. See fibs below.
Minis - Took out the 1090 low, next Flash Friday's low of 1066.5. Looking at the fibs. First the 38% off of the 667 low to high is near 1007. Coming off the more recent July low the 38% is 83, 50% is 41 and 61% is 1000. Given that, I think the confluence of the two retracements near 1000 gives the best target for this first drop (wave 1). 100 points from this level is reasonable, but might prove to be conservative if this things gets rolling like it can. At this time the minis are sitting on another confluence as the 23% off the 667 low is 1089 and the 38% off the July low is 1083. That intersection should be heeded as well (and has provided the first support level this morning). The support line running under the August/February lows was dusted this morning. A backtest of that line gets you to 1102 and resistance should be around 1105. I'm not sure anything (other than the PPT and a few circuit breakers) may stop it till it hits at least the July low of 40.75.
SPX - The Daily 200ma will be toast after the open and so will be the lower BB. The 200ma at 1102 also supports a backtest in that area. I think we had the triangle bust, the backtest was a 38% corrective retracement of wave 1 of 3 and if the impulsive wave three is here this is where it counts out to me. 1036 would be a good target for the end of 3. (to plug that in with the minis above - add a 4 corrective and a final 5th wave and you get to the emotional support level of 1000. Weekly BB support is at 1052. The weekly RSI 50 support line will most likely be cracked by this move. This does not look good for the bulls.
Gotta back it out to a bigger picture. Link to chart is HERE. For us to see targets and fibs you are gonna have to start looking at bigger charts. Now, my original speculation was that wave 1 would bounce off of the bear market upper TL and then we'd have the two corrective. That line is almost in play and will effect trading as price gets in that range.I speculated it would take a 3 to bust thru it. Unfortunately I thought that would be in wave 3 later this year and not in 3 of 1. We may be a little ahead of schedule.
After thinking that my gold fall call had gone bad (the only thing I have really missed to this point) it apparently is still alive and kicking. See the Jesse's Cafe link in my post from last night if you are a gold bug. It is a must read.
I'll update with turns and targets if it really gets going good. Circuit breakers may com into play. Remember I have called for at least two market closures in P3 and theoretically they should come on third of thirds. I have also thrown out the possibility of wave 1 of P3 being the biggest of the 3 down waves in P3 the reason being the panic/capitulative sale may come up front and not in the middle or at the end. Let's see.
You may consider Live Feed From Athens As 100,000 Greeks Go On Strike, Consider Storming Parliament Again cause this till be what Washington will look like sooner than later.
I almost forgot - Jobs disapoint.
GL!
Earnings Calendar - DELL after the close
Economic Calendar - Jobs were bad despite Census hiring. Leading Indicators and Philly Fed at 10:00. Natgas at 10:30.
Pivot Points - Never mind. It has blown thru all of these. See fibs below.
Minis - Took out the 1090 low, next Flash Friday's low of 1066.5. Looking at the fibs. First the 38% off of the 667 low to high is near 1007. Coming off the more recent July low the 38% is 83, 50% is 41 and 61% is 1000. Given that, I think the confluence of the two retracements near 1000 gives the best target for this first drop (wave 1). 100 points from this level is reasonable, but might prove to be conservative if this things gets rolling like it can. At this time the minis are sitting on another confluence as the 23% off the 667 low is 1089 and the 38% off the July low is 1083. That intersection should be heeded as well (and has provided the first support level this morning). The support line running under the August/February lows was dusted this morning. A backtest of that line gets you to 1102 and resistance should be around 1105. I'm not sure anything (other than the PPT and a few circuit breakers) may stop it till it hits at least the July low of 40.75.
SPX - The Daily 200ma will be toast after the open and so will be the lower BB. The 200ma at 1102 also supports a backtest in that area. I think we had the triangle bust, the backtest was a 38% corrective retracement of wave 1 of 3 and if the impulsive wave three is here this is where it counts out to me. 1036 would be a good target for the end of 3. (to plug that in with the minis above - add a 4 corrective and a final 5th wave and you get to the emotional support level of 1000. Weekly BB support is at 1052. The weekly RSI 50 support line will most likely be cracked by this move. This does not look good for the bulls.
Gotta back it out to a bigger picture. Link to chart is HERE. For us to see targets and fibs you are gonna have to start looking at bigger charts. Now, my original speculation was that wave 1 would bounce off of the bear market upper TL and then we'd have the two corrective. That line is almost in play and will effect trading as price gets in that range.I speculated it would take a 3 to bust thru it. Unfortunately I thought that would be in wave 3 later this year and not in 3 of 1. We may be a little ahead of schedule.
After thinking that my gold fall call had gone bad (the only thing I have really missed to this point) it apparently is still alive and kicking. See the Jesse's Cafe link in my post from last night if you are a gold bug. It is a must read.
I'll update with turns and targets if it really gets going good. Circuit breakers may com into play. Remember I have called for at least two market closures in P3 and theoretically they should come on third of thirds. I have also thrown out the possibility of wave 1 of P3 being the biggest of the 3 down waves in P3 the reason being the panic/capitulative sale may come up front and not in the middle or at the end. Let's see.
You may consider Live Feed From Athens As 100,000 Greeks Go On Strike, Consider Storming Parliament Again cause this till be what Washington will look like sooner than later.
I almost forgot - Jobs disapoint.
GL!
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
Sure, the Economy Is Just Fine
Sometimes you just gotta shake your head. That was an impressive stick save today on the EUR. Wonder what that cost the US taxpayers? How bout that stick save on the market after taking out the 1114 low and hitting that nice round 1100 number? PPT double dipping? Boy is this getting expensive.
My favorite news bite of the day come from ZH - US Economy So Healthy One In Ten Mortgages Delinquent (New Record), One In Twenty In Foreclosure "New foreclosures continue at a substantial rate of 1.23%, the 9th consecutive quarter where at least 1% of mortgages went into foreclosure. The total inventory of foreclosures (non-seasonally adjusted) rose to 4.63% of the stock of housing in the MBA's survey (just over 2 million homes in foreclosure)." Can you say Shadow Inventory? Uh hugh, I thought you could. Those numbers are outrageous. I hear on CNBS that TOL may be a good buy.
You gold bugs may want to read this one from Jesse's Cafe American with a magnifying glass - Bear Raid In Gold Results in an Historic One Day Liquidation: Höllenmädchen Merkel und die Straßenschreier "Next Tuesday is the option expiration for Calls and Puts on the Comex gold futures. There was a particularly large concentration of contracts at the 1200 level which we were watching from Monday when we promised you many market shenanigans in the coming option expiration, for both the mining stocks and precious metals." Uh, I'd mark your calendar for this date. could get interesting.
Denninger's take on the SEC's Circuit Breaker Rule: Idiotic is concise and something you need to understand cause these will come into play sooner than later (possibly sooner than they get implemented). "But when you stop trading in only some instruments and not those that include the subject security as part of a reference basket you create outrageous and insane market distortions that the computers will instantly arbitrage to guarantee themselves a profit while ordinary investors, who are incapable of acting quickly enough to exploit the distortion, are once again saddled with an unavoidable loss created by the so-called "regulations."" Karl has a way with words.
In what I consider a classic post from Mish (he hits on a topic near and dear and ranted about here) Rant of the Day: Putting Money to Work, Where is the Fiduciary Responsibility? "Part of the problem is the fee structure system itself. Typically clients only pay fees when the money is invested. Thus, there is a huge incentive to "invest" whether it makes any sense or not, even in cases the manager is pretty sure it is wrong." Just read on and then go fire your advisor if you are still invested in any C share mutual funds.
Have a great evening and thanks for the views. GL!
My favorite news bite of the day come from ZH - US Economy So Healthy One In Ten Mortgages Delinquent (New Record), One In Twenty In Foreclosure "New foreclosures continue at a substantial rate of 1.23%, the 9th consecutive quarter where at least 1% of mortgages went into foreclosure. The total inventory of foreclosures (non-seasonally adjusted) rose to 4.63% of the stock of housing in the MBA's survey (just over 2 million homes in foreclosure)." Can you say Shadow Inventory? Uh hugh, I thought you could. Those numbers are outrageous. I hear on CNBS that TOL may be a good buy.
You gold bugs may want to read this one from Jesse's Cafe American with a magnifying glass - Bear Raid In Gold Results in an Historic One Day Liquidation: Höllenmädchen Merkel und die Straßenschreier "Next Tuesday is the option expiration for Calls and Puts on the Comex gold futures. There was a particularly large concentration of contracts at the 1200 level which we were watching from Monday when we promised you many market shenanigans in the coming option expiration, for both the mining stocks and precious metals." Uh, I'd mark your calendar for this date. could get interesting.
Denninger's take on the SEC's Circuit Breaker Rule: Idiotic is concise and something you need to understand cause these will come into play sooner than later (possibly sooner than they get implemented). "But when you stop trading in only some instruments and not those that include the subject security as part of a reference basket you create outrageous and insane market distortions that the computers will instantly arbitrage to guarantee themselves a profit while ordinary investors, who are incapable of acting quickly enough to exploit the distortion, are once again saddled with an unavoidable loss created by the so-called "regulations."" Karl has a way with words.
In what I consider a classic post from Mish (he hits on a topic near and dear and ranted about here) Rant of the Day: Putting Money to Work, Where is the Fiduciary Responsibility? "Part of the problem is the fee structure system itself. Typically clients only pay fees when the money is invested. Thus, there is a huge incentive to "invest" whether it makes any sense or not, even in cases the manager is pretty sure it is wrong." Just read on and then go fire your advisor if you are still invested in any C share mutual funds.
Have a great evening and thanks for the views. GL!
Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini
Overseas down, but not as bad as they were. Lots of confusion right now. Specter out, Paul on track to get it. Message being sent and I'd suspect that Washington will get the message loud and clear.
Economic Calendar - CPI was flat. Petrol at 10:30
Earnings Calendar - TGT this am (beat by .04). DE did OK as well. Not many notables left.
Pivot Points - Know 'em.
E-minis - Here is a chart from the 1147.5 top yesterday. Price was rejected by the bull correctives support line, it then came down to close the gap frpm 07 to 12 and is now trading 5 points down in a range from 17 to 04. The red line on the bottom is TL support that runs under the August thru February lows. Looking for price and TL support is getting difficult. the 1040.75 low in February is on the radar. The 1056 flash crash low is in sight as well. Gonna have to digest the charts to get some more accurate destination points. 1108 is the 61% retracement of the rise from February. 1083 is the 38% retracement off the July low. The point I like the most is the fib convergence near the emotional point of 1000. The 38% retracement of the overall rise off 667 is 1000 and the 61% retracement of the rise from July is at 999. Pump then dump has been the recent theme. I can't see any reason for optimism.
EUR/USD - What a difference a week and a fresh trillion can make. Oops, that trillion did not help much. Melt up Monday is clear as day on the left of the chart. Disaster follows for the EUR after that. That big green spike is a rally this morning from 216 to 229 on price(edit - made it as high as 2320). Not sure why. I'm sticking with my call to keep an eye on UDN for a very short tradeable pop. If this can get any sort of relief it should be worth the look if you time it right.
SPX - Is the triangle about to bust a nut south? Is this mega impulse day? If not, it is coming as the triangle I see is playing out. We are one news event from near disaster and those events seem to be coming faster and faster. I'm thinking banking regulation here (if meaningful regulation should ever occur) will be the dagger that kills the beast. We're just gonna have to wait a while for that. As for today's actions, the standard up down possibilities exist. The market is showing great resiliency right now. I guess the news from Europe and the Far East has no bearings on the US markets? The Fed and the BD's are working overtime pumping the algos and HFT bots to perform at their peak efficiency right now.
A lower low at the open might cause a nice divergence on the chart above. Fear is rampant, so buying should be sparse. I'm not buying, are you? Well the CNBS pumpmeisters are doing their best to get you to play the game. The obvious call is down. Everyone is looking for the mega impulse wave south here. Maybe that triangle has to play out. Maybe E truncated and the fall yesterday was 1 of 3 and after a corrective to backtest the triangle it pukes up a lung? Normally (like on May 06) I can get very specific with the call. Not feeling so confident in the downside this am for some reason. These assholes still control the markets running 70% of the volume thru the embedded servers at every exchange. If the sellers are not there, they will ramp it. I believe news is driving the sell side and thus we'll need another news driven event to get the sellers out in force. Have no fear, those events are coming fast and furious. Like I said, if the lower TL cracks look out after a backtest. The outside chance of a throwunder of the triangle and a rally to 75 is still in the cards, but that is remote at best but still worth mentioning.
GL!
Economic Calendar - CPI was flat. Petrol at 10:30
Earnings Calendar - TGT this am (beat by .04). DE did OK as well. Not many notables left.
Pivot Points - Know 'em.
E-minis - Here is a chart from the 1147.5 top yesterday. Price was rejected by the bull correctives support line, it then came down to close the gap frpm 07 to 12 and is now trading 5 points down in a range from 17 to 04. The red line on the bottom is TL support that runs under the August thru February lows. Looking for price and TL support is getting difficult. the 1040.75 low in February is on the radar. The 1056 flash crash low is in sight as well. Gonna have to digest the charts to get some more accurate destination points. 1108 is the 61% retracement of the rise from February. 1083 is the 38% retracement off the July low. The point I like the most is the fib convergence near the emotional point of 1000. The 38% retracement of the overall rise off 667 is 1000 and the 61% retracement of the rise from July is at 999. Pump then dump has been the recent theme. I can't see any reason for optimism.
A lower low at the open might cause a nice divergence on the chart above. Fear is rampant, so buying should be sparse. I'm not buying, are you? Well the CNBS pumpmeisters are doing their best to get you to play the game. The obvious call is down. Everyone is looking for the mega impulse wave south here. Maybe that triangle has to play out. Maybe E truncated and the fall yesterday was 1 of 3 and after a corrective to backtest the triangle it pukes up a lung? Normally (like on May 06) I can get very specific with the call. Not feeling so confident in the downside this am for some reason. These assholes still control the markets running 70% of the volume thru the embedded servers at every exchange. If the sellers are not there, they will ramp it. I believe news is driving the sell side and thus we'll need another news driven event to get the sellers out in force. Have no fear, those events are coming fast and furious. Like I said, if the lower TL cracks look out after a backtest. The outside chance of a throwunder of the triangle and a rally to 75 is still in the cards, but that is remote at best but still worth mentioning.
GL!
Tuesday, May 18, 2010
Minis Close The Gap - And A Few Charts
Minis down 8 at this time and have been lower. 1106 to close the gap to be precise.
UPDATE: Now only down 5. Rinse/Repeat. They are not gonna pull this crap three nights in a row are they? I tell ya, they are taking cash out the back door in the dead of night while they think no one is watching.
UPDATE 2: ZH reports Wednesday Trading Session Set To Be "The Most Volatile In Living Memory" Warns Telegraph, Plunge In Bunds Expected Some are speculating that the dreaded impulsive third wave is coming. It is not a matter of IF but WHEN Carry Bloodbath Resumes With Full Blown Liquidations Imminent Will tomorrow be it? I'm still not sure and need to get into the charts. It is very possible especially given the ultra extreme bullish sentiment exhibited on CNBS this afternoon.
UPDATE 3 - I'm having fun and throwing stuff in left and right throughout the post. Shall we throw in Calpers In Dire Straits Following Huge Investment Losses, Asks For $600 Million In Funding From Bankrupt California for good measure?
Denninger has The German Government Has Had Enough Is this my EXTERNAL EVENT that is OUT OF THEIR CONTROL that I have been calling for that is going to rip the markets from the manipulators?
Jesse's Cafe -Merkel to The Banks and Hedge Funds: Sprechen Sie Deutsche? Then Droppen Sie Dead a You gotta love the Germans. they were the only ones that called the global bluff and saw thru the BS on the Greek bailout.
UPDATE 4 - Added SPX support chart at the bottom just for fun. Once you get past 667, there is a dark 200 point hole. Not getting ahead of myself here. Just wondering of the possibilities.
UPDATE 5 - Oh FUCK YEAH - Specter LOSES! Get those crony bastards OUT OF WASHINGTON NOW! Rand Paul wins. http://www.foxnews.com/
Charted some stuff in TOS. Hard to see, but you'll get the picture.
Gold chart - Some like Grantham are calling for a pullback. I myself have called for one for some time. I was disappointed that the last time it fell it did not get more. So far my forecast for gold is about the only thing I have missed in the past year. Yeah, gold did pull back to the 1040 range, and maybe that should count, but I'm with some of the others still looking for 950. The floor may be set where Russia, China and India stepped in and bought large chunks of the heavy yellow material near 1015, but I still think that can be breached. I don;t think anything will survive the next sell off. As a disclaimer, I don't think anyone knows what gold will do. Could it go to 5,000? Sure. Will it go below 950? Nope. I do believe it eventually goes a lot higher. Whether that happens from here or not is the question. Up tons off of the lows and with a nice rising wedge completing. Yellow dashed is the wedge target line. Green is lower TL support. Both interact nicely with fib targets near what I want. Divergences are set already. Volume is declining.
EUR/USD - Not sure if it is channeling down or not, but it is falling. Green TL support can be seen. Support lines are drawn at 18 and 08. With some speaking of parity with the dollar (and I only have a dollar target of 89), something has got to give. The intersection of the lower red support, green support and the 61.8 fin near 110 in early october is an intriguing point. That is of course the EUR is still a meaningful currency at that time.Based on this post from ZH I'm way to conservative I think in my 110 target -Summary Of Today's Festivities From Goldman and Morgan Stanley: Run From The Euro
$DJUSFN - Looks like the charts are telling the financials that is all they are gonna get for now, so go home and quit raping the American middle class. The resistance line at $289 goes all the way back to 1997 and is for real. The 38% corrective retracement to resistance is real. It looks like the falling wedge I have labeled is real as well. See you at the bottom TL in a year or two. I'd suspect it has a throwunder of the lower support line before any rally (if the financials are capable of a rally after this fall).
Oil - My ultimate target of $55 or worse is still in tact. Natgas might have some more NT upside, but it should eventually get abused as well. Both are or have formed the same falling wedge that is what is defining the various market structures of the impending collapse.
SPX Support chart - There are more in there, but these are the main points I see.
That is enough for now. GL and watch out for falling banks.
UPDATE: Now only down 5. Rinse/Repeat. They are not gonna pull this crap three nights in a row are they? I tell ya, they are taking cash out the back door in the dead of night while they think no one is watching.
UPDATE 2: ZH reports Wednesday Trading Session Set To Be "The Most Volatile In Living Memory" Warns Telegraph, Plunge In Bunds Expected Some are speculating that the dreaded impulsive third wave is coming. It is not a matter of IF but WHEN Carry Bloodbath Resumes With Full Blown Liquidations Imminent Will tomorrow be it? I'm still not sure and need to get into the charts. It is very possible especially given the ultra extreme bullish sentiment exhibited on CNBS this afternoon.
UPDATE 3 - I'm having fun and throwing stuff in left and right throughout the post. Shall we throw in Calpers In Dire Straits Following Huge Investment Losses, Asks For $600 Million In Funding From Bankrupt California for good measure?
Denninger has The German Government Has Had Enough Is this my EXTERNAL EVENT that is OUT OF THEIR CONTROL that I have been calling for that is going to rip the markets from the manipulators?
Jesse's Cafe -Merkel to The Banks and Hedge Funds: Sprechen Sie Deutsche? Then Droppen Sie Dead a You gotta love the Germans. they were the only ones that called the global bluff and saw thru the BS on the Greek bailout.
UPDATE 4 - Added SPX support chart at the bottom just for fun. Once you get past 667, there is a dark 200 point hole. Not getting ahead of myself here. Just wondering of the possibilities.
UPDATE 5 - Oh FUCK YEAH - Specter LOSES! Get those crony bastards OUT OF WASHINGTON NOW! Rand Paul wins. http://www.foxnews.com/
Charted some stuff in TOS. Hard to see, but you'll get the picture.
Gold chart - Some like Grantham are calling for a pullback. I myself have called for one for some time. I was disappointed that the last time it fell it did not get more. So far my forecast for gold is about the only thing I have missed in the past year. Yeah, gold did pull back to the 1040 range, and maybe that should count, but I'm with some of the others still looking for 950. The floor may be set where Russia, China and India stepped in and bought large chunks of the heavy yellow material near 1015, but I still think that can be breached. I don;t think anything will survive the next sell off. As a disclaimer, I don't think anyone knows what gold will do. Could it go to 5,000? Sure. Will it go below 950? Nope. I do believe it eventually goes a lot higher. Whether that happens from here or not is the question. Up tons off of the lows and with a nice rising wedge completing. Yellow dashed is the wedge target line. Green is lower TL support. Both interact nicely with fib targets near what I want. Divergences are set already. Volume is declining.
Oil - My ultimate target of $55 or worse is still in tact. Natgas might have some more NT upside, but it should eventually get abused as well. Both are or have formed the same falling wedge that is what is defining the various market structures of the impending collapse.
SPX Support chart - There are more in there, but these are the main points I see.
That is enough for now. GL and watch out for falling banks.
CNBS Is So Full Of It. The Banks Are Screwed And MW Is right Again.
OMG, for the first time in months I watched CNBS in the afternoon instead of Bloomberg. Wow, what a bunch of bullshit they spew. You would think the EUR going to 21 was a good thing. I'm surprised they put the MW replay on a few times noting the impending disaster in the financial sector. Must be like a disclaimer, "This 30 second spot is just in case." Absolutely horrifying and criminal what they are pumping and what the "money managers" and "analysts" are trying to sell you.
I'll spare you a total recap of Zero Hedge at this point, but a quick glance reads like an obituary for the markets. My favorite and most telling (since I am a conspiracy nut), Moody's Head Of Sovereign Ratings Pierre Cailleteau Leaving Disgraced Firm to me this is the biggest tell of all that this has been a rigged game. I'm speculating that Pierre can't take the lies anymore and has had enough. I would expect to see him in a courtroom as an expert witness before to long (depending on the size of his US taxpaor funded sevarance package of course).
Of course the news that rocked the market was Germany To Ban Short Selling At Midnight, Only Naked Shorts To Be Affected. That morphed into German "Reform" About To Whack FX Market: FinMin Says Likely To Ban EUR Derivatives That Don't Hedge vs FX Risk. Contagion will spread as governments go into a full court press against the banks that have been holding them hostage (well, at least across the pond they are, here...LOL...we're still bought and sold by the Fed and the TBTF daily). reform with teeth may come one day, after the TBTF's have been busted up or have totally collapsed (I'd bet on collapse first).
Mish covers the fact that Individual Stock Circuit-Breakers Coming Your Way as our SEC begins to get into the act of further regulating markets to try and stop the impending fall. Mish also has an updated Interactive Map of Failed Banks in 2010 with Texas Ratios, Capitalization Ratios, Etc; All Failed Banks By Name and Date Since 2000. This was very enlightening last time and should be even better as the regulations take place and the fraudulent earnings and balance sheets go away. FAZ and SKF holders might actually get some sort of reward I'm guessing (anything is possible right?). And we'll cap off the Mish section with something that we can all see coming a mile away -Legalized Theft - UK Proposes 50% Tax on Capital Gains, Up From 18%, yes folks the cap gains laws here will be changed and those with legacy holding will have a tough decision to make (not that the markets aren't making those decisions any easier). To sell at current rates (which I think will cause a massive dump) or hold and be charges and extra exorbitant amount (on what will most likely be worth a lot less)? Tough call LOL.
No, no conspiracy or fraud here in the US of A involving the banks. Really. I swear! Wait, what's this Denninger has uncovered - ALL The Banks Ripped Off Taxpayers? Karl does a great job trying to educate and defend you and me. We should all thank him for his efforts (as well as ZH, Mish, naked cap and a handful of others). "Anderson said he referred scores of cases to the Justice Department when he was with the IRS. He estimates that bid rigging cost taxpayers billions of dollars. Anderson said prosecutors are lining up conspirators to plead guilty and name names." LOL, but the banks are not being prosecuted, just the employees. What a screwed up nation we live in. that's right, no conspiracy here between the big banks and the bought and paid for representatives
Naked Cap has something you will surely not see on the MSM. Racial Wealth Gap Quadruples in Since Mid 1980s this eye opener will help you understand the glaring wealth disparity that exists in the county, and IMHO the root of all this evil we're experiencing right now. The rich get richer while the rest are left for dead. Now, nothing wrong with being rich as hell. I'm all for that. The problem I have is when they use their assets to influence and further their positions (like buying congress so their banks can do all sorts of (once) illegal things to steal trillions from the rest of us).
Our government sucks. that is all there is to it. This post from Washington's blog is a good one emphasizing the ineptness of our elected leaders at solving any issue.The Responses to the Gulf Oil Spill and to the Financial Crisis Are Remarkably Similar ... And Have Made Both Crises Much Worse The quote from William Black is a classic, " the government's entire strategy now - as during the S&L crisis - is to cover up how bad things are ("the entire strategy is to keep people from getting the facts". CNBS is doing their part, are you? I can see those Uncle Sam posters now, "I Want You - To LIE!"
And WB has this post on the oil spill - Criminal Negligence: Despite Knowing It Had a Damaged Blowout Preventer, BP STILL Cut Corners By Removing the Single Most Important Safety Measure I think it is a must read. conspiracy, bought and paid for government? No way. Never.
I'll do what I can with the charts tonight. I'm thinking it is time for another impulsive move south soon. It is collapsing. turn off the MSM and listen to your head. Not what the cheer leading BS propaganda machine is pitching. The trillion bailout to the EU just a week ago got 'em what? Time to pull the rip cord I think.
GL, thanks for the views and have a good evening.
I'll spare you a total recap of Zero Hedge at this point, but a quick glance reads like an obituary for the markets. My favorite and most telling (since I am a conspiracy nut), Moody's Head Of Sovereign Ratings Pierre Cailleteau Leaving Disgraced Firm to me this is the biggest tell of all that this has been a rigged game. I'm speculating that Pierre can't take the lies anymore and has had enough. I would expect to see him in a courtroom as an expert witness before to long (depending on the size of his US taxpaor funded sevarance package of course).
Of course the news that rocked the market was Germany To Ban Short Selling At Midnight, Only Naked Shorts To Be Affected. That morphed into German "Reform" About To Whack FX Market: FinMin Says Likely To Ban EUR Derivatives That Don't Hedge vs FX Risk. Contagion will spread as governments go into a full court press against the banks that have been holding them hostage (well, at least across the pond they are, here...LOL...we're still bought and sold by the Fed and the TBTF daily). reform with teeth may come one day, after the TBTF's have been busted up or have totally collapsed (I'd bet on collapse first).
Mish covers the fact that Individual Stock Circuit-Breakers Coming Your Way as our SEC begins to get into the act of further regulating markets to try and stop the impending fall. Mish also has an updated Interactive Map of Failed Banks in 2010 with Texas Ratios, Capitalization Ratios, Etc; All Failed Banks By Name and Date Since 2000. This was very enlightening last time and should be even better as the regulations take place and the fraudulent earnings and balance sheets go away. FAZ and SKF holders might actually get some sort of reward I'm guessing (anything is possible right?). And we'll cap off the Mish section with something that we can all see coming a mile away -Legalized Theft - UK Proposes 50% Tax on Capital Gains, Up From 18%, yes folks the cap gains laws here will be changed and those with legacy holding will have a tough decision to make (not that the markets aren't making those decisions any easier). To sell at current rates (which I think will cause a massive dump) or hold and be charges and extra exorbitant amount (on what will most likely be worth a lot less)? Tough call LOL.
No, no conspiracy or fraud here in the US of A involving the banks. Really. I swear! Wait, what's this Denninger has uncovered - ALL The Banks Ripped Off Taxpayers? Karl does a great job trying to educate and defend you and me. We should all thank him for his efforts (as well as ZH, Mish, naked cap and a handful of others). "Anderson said he referred scores of cases to the Justice Department when he was with the IRS. He estimates that bid rigging cost taxpayers billions of dollars. Anderson said prosecutors are lining up conspirators to plead guilty and name names." LOL, but the banks are not being prosecuted, just the employees. What a screwed up nation we live in. that's right, no conspiracy here between the big banks and the bought and paid for representatives
Naked Cap has something you will surely not see on the MSM. Racial Wealth Gap Quadruples in Since Mid 1980s this eye opener will help you understand the glaring wealth disparity that exists in the county, and IMHO the root of all this evil we're experiencing right now. The rich get richer while the rest are left for dead. Now, nothing wrong with being rich as hell. I'm all for that. The problem I have is when they use their assets to influence and further their positions (like buying congress so their banks can do all sorts of (once) illegal things to steal trillions from the rest of us).
Our government sucks. that is all there is to it. This post from Washington's blog is a good one emphasizing the ineptness of our elected leaders at solving any issue.The Responses to the Gulf Oil Spill and to the Financial Crisis Are Remarkably Similar ... And Have Made Both Crises Much Worse The quote from William Black is a classic, " the government's entire strategy now - as during the S&L crisis - is to cover up how bad things are ("the entire strategy is to keep people from getting the facts". CNBS is doing their part, are you? I can see those Uncle Sam posters now, "I Want You - To LIE!"
And WB has this post on the oil spill - Criminal Negligence: Despite Knowing It Had a Damaged Blowout Preventer, BP STILL Cut Corners By Removing the Single Most Important Safety Measure I think it is a must read. conspiracy, bought and paid for government? No way. Never.
I'll do what I can with the charts tonight. I'm thinking it is time for another impulsive move south soon. It is collapsing. turn off the MSM and listen to your head. Not what the cheer leading BS propaganda machine is pitching. The trillion bailout to the EU just a week ago got 'em what? Time to pull the rip cord I think.
GL, thanks for the views and have a good evening.
Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini
Struggling with the post this am as I hate calling against conventional wisdom which screams that the sky is actually falling.
Earnings Calendar - HPQ, HD and WMT
Economic Calendar - Housing Starts. PPI.
Pivot Points - Know 'em
EUR over 24 now after the stick save. Looking for 1.2519 retrace. Problems are not over, but band-aid containing the wound at this time. Pumping massive amounts of cash into any situation will cause near term euphoric sensations. Problem is what happens when the party ends?
Oil threw in a fat gap overnight and shot above 75. Gold trending down on lower volume. Natgas going up for some strange reason.
Minis up 8 at this time after a replay of last night, down then up. What causes the nights to go down? They are sneaking out the back door on you. Pump and dump. Was there a inverse H&S formed over the past 36 hours on the minis with the head at 14 and the neckline near 38? (64 target). The way I see it the minis wedge broke down, they fell to the wedge target line, also to the 50% retracement and are now recovering. This should be a measurable move. The backtest of the P2 support line happens at 47 which should cause resistance. 43 to 50 is the 50% to 61% retracement zone from the last high. I'd say 47 will be a tough nut to crack, but it is not impossible. (Update - reversed at 1147.5)
SPX - Red and pink dashed July S/R lines keep coming in play (look at all the hits). SPX has completed a 38% retracement of the last fall. Does it want more? The red line resistance at 42 up to the bronze line near 55 should be it. Kinda wide range, but these days you don't want to get to specific. Gotta leave some room for error. Speaking of room for error, I'm not leaving out a run into the low 70's as a possibility. Here is a link to the chart with the wedges I am seeing.
GL out there. It can turn on a dime, so always have your stops set. Don't be be afraid to chase daily trends. Yesterday was a great example. Be nimble. We want volatility. We want it to make big moves. Don't get joined at the hip trading one side or the other. Yes, I am a permabear, but I like to make $$$$$. I'll post something if necessary. Sorry I did not post the turn yesterday. Keep an eye on UDN.
Earnings Calendar - HPQ, HD and WMT
Economic Calendar - Housing Starts. PPI.
Pivot Points - Know 'em
EUR over 24 now after the stick save. Looking for 1.2519 retrace. Problems are not over, but band-aid containing the wound at this time. Pumping massive amounts of cash into any situation will cause near term euphoric sensations. Problem is what happens when the party ends?
Oil threw in a fat gap overnight and shot above 75. Gold trending down on lower volume. Natgas going up for some strange reason.
Minis up 8 at this time after a replay of last night, down then up. What causes the nights to go down? They are sneaking out the back door on you. Pump and dump. Was there a inverse H&S formed over the past 36 hours on the minis with the head at 14 and the neckline near 38? (64 target). The way I see it the minis wedge broke down, they fell to the wedge target line, also to the 50% retracement and are now recovering. This should be a measurable move. The backtest of the P2 support line happens at 47 which should cause resistance. 43 to 50 is the 50% to 61% retracement zone from the last high. I'd say 47 will be a tough nut to crack, but it is not impossible. (Update - reversed at 1147.5)
SPX - Red and pink dashed July S/R lines keep coming in play (look at all the hits). SPX has completed a 38% retracement of the last fall. Does it want more? The red line resistance at 42 up to the bronze line near 55 should be it. Kinda wide range, but these days you don't want to get to specific. Gotta leave some room for error. Speaking of room for error, I'm not leaving out a run into the low 70's as a possibility. Here is a link to the chart with the wedges I am seeing.
GL out there. It can turn on a dime, so always have your stops set. Don't be be afraid to chase daily trends. Yesterday was a great example. Be nimble. We want volatility. We want it to make big moves. Don't get joined at the hip trading one side or the other. Yes, I am a permabear, but I like to make $$$$$. I'll post something if necessary. Sorry I did not post the turn yesterday. Keep an eye on UDN.
Monday, May 17, 2010
Ramp Jobs Are BACK! How To Spot One Coming (and The Dollar)
Ahhh, the joy of guaranteed quick long scalps at the end of the day are just great aren't they! I'm done bitching about them and will instead use them to my advantage to make $$. As I said this morning, "I'm going with the 30m chart and speculate that the bulls are gonna regain some ground, but not much today." Well closing just green about nailed it. Nope, I was not worried, cause I knew I had the "team" backing up my call (and the charts were there for the most part).
Sorry I did not post the turn on the 30m chart when it happened. The divergences were just nasty after the sell off this morning. In How To Know a Turn is Coming 101 (without Shanky telling you), you first learn how to spot divergences. It all started with this nasty one on the 5m chart. The drop this morning set higher lows across the board on all time frame indicators and lower lows in price. From the 5m chart you graduate to higher time frames. In my case I go 15m, then 30m and finally 60m. I'll enter trades on the 15 and 30m confirming the divergence. In this case you did not have many support lines to guide you and targets were tough to come by, but the indicators with divergences rarely lie. Second, you learn the tricks of the manipulators and how they like to prop up incontinent markets via stimulus of any sort (most often with your money). They print, print and print more money and then loan it out for free to the central banks, not to you and me. Getting Screwed By Big Government is a 500 level course that will be discussed in rant form at a later date.
So, what is to come from here? Looks to me like we have a possible small recovery coming. How you count it is your business. A triangle. wedge or ABC corrective, they all come out pretty near the same place. Well, that is if I am right and a harder move up here is coming. There was a good fake out on the 30m chart back in early May, but this chart rarely lies. So a move to somewhere near the C or E points is to be expected. I'll know more when we get there. The one thing to look for will be for a divergence to show up on the indicators on this chart to tell you the turn is coming.
BONUS COVERAGE - The Dollar and UDN.
I'm bringing this here cause if the dollar should fall with any fervor (doubt that) it may (may) have a positive effect on the markets. Look, we all know the end is near and that financial Armageddon is coming, but the MSM would have you believe all is well, no problems here, please move along and the manipulators are still in control. We are going to have to deal with these temporary annoyances till the journey ends. Now, if the EUR continues to implode, ignore all of this. It will implode, but will they give it one last shot of adrenaline (short squeeze) in the heart to try and revive it?
I'm sure with the EUR about to get a 1.24 print (off a 1.228 low this am) is the possible short squeeze coming? You UUP people better watch out and have reasonable stops set. Here is my UDN chart. This is getting a bit out of hand. Severe moves like this will correct, and at this time it looks like a small corrective here is overdue. This may just be a 3 ending and a small 4 corrective or a full 5 may have played out. My dollar target for many months has been $89. I consider $87 in the neighborhood, but not at my target yet. Just keep an eye on things here.
Looking at this chart of the dollar you can see it has blown thru resistance. The duration of the ramps seems to be consistent and this one has been (deservedly so or not) more extreme than any so far. $83.72 was the 61.8% retracement of the fall from grace. Let's see if the dollar can scare $82 again sometime soon on a squeeze. (before the massive large crash that is) GL!
Sorry I did not post the turn on the 30m chart when it happened. The divergences were just nasty after the sell off this morning. In How To Know a Turn is Coming 101 (without Shanky telling you), you first learn how to spot divergences. It all started with this nasty one on the 5m chart. The drop this morning set higher lows across the board on all time frame indicators and lower lows in price. From the 5m chart you graduate to higher time frames. In my case I go 15m, then 30m and finally 60m. I'll enter trades on the 15 and 30m confirming the divergence. In this case you did not have many support lines to guide you and targets were tough to come by, but the indicators with divergences rarely lie. Second, you learn the tricks of the manipulators and how they like to prop up incontinent markets via stimulus of any sort (most often with your money). They print, print and print more money and then loan it out for free to the central banks, not to you and me. Getting Screwed By Big Government is a 500 level course that will be discussed in rant form at a later date.
So, what is to come from here? Looks to me like we have a possible small recovery coming. How you count it is your business. A triangle. wedge or ABC corrective, they all come out pretty near the same place. Well, that is if I am right and a harder move up here is coming. There was a good fake out on the 30m chart back in early May, but this chart rarely lies. So a move to somewhere near the C or E points is to be expected. I'll know more when we get there. The one thing to look for will be for a divergence to show up on the indicators on this chart to tell you the turn is coming.
BONUS COVERAGE - The Dollar and UDN.
I'm bringing this here cause if the dollar should fall with any fervor (doubt that) it may (may) have a positive effect on the markets. Look, we all know the end is near and that financial Armageddon is coming, but the MSM would have you believe all is well, no problems here, please move along and the manipulators are still in control. We are going to have to deal with these temporary annoyances till the journey ends. Now, if the EUR continues to implode, ignore all of this. It will implode, but will they give it one last shot of adrenaline (short squeeze) in the heart to try and revive it?
I'm sure with the EUR about to get a 1.24 print (off a 1.228 low this am) is the possible short squeeze coming? You UUP people better watch out and have reasonable stops set. Here is my UDN chart. This is getting a bit out of hand. Severe moves like this will correct, and at this time it looks like a small corrective here is overdue. This may just be a 3 ending and a small 4 corrective or a full 5 may have played out. My dollar target for many months has been $89. I consider $87 in the neighborhood, but not at my target yet. Just keep an eye on things here.
Looking at this chart of the dollar you can see it has blown thru resistance. The duration of the ramps seems to be consistent and this one has been (deservedly so or not) more extreme than any so far. $83.72 was the 61.8% retracement of the fall from grace. Let's see if the dollar can scare $82 again sometime soon on a squeeze. (before the massive large crash that is) GL!
SPX - Breaking Down Or At Support?
Tough call at this time as price sits on the pink dashed line and cracks two possible diagonals.the pink lins is support from the July lows that was in play Friday. If this goes there is really nothing to stop it between here and 1,100. Keep an eye out here. If Friday's lows go, so may the market. Remember the futures were as low as 13 points down at one time late last night. I think you can see the claw marks on the side of the cliff. They are struggling and fighting to keep it afloat here.
LOBOR 3mo Golden Cross
I'm not buying it just yet, but anything is possible. The great interest rate debate is on. Are higher rates necessary or are lower rates going to continue to rule the day? Will fear among the banks lending continue to spike (to like some realistic level that is not supported by swaps and all the free money you can carry home in your wheelbarrow)? Bottom line is the banks will do what is best in their interest and not yours. 2 fibs are provided.
Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini
I have no clue. The PPT stepped in and remedied things overnight while we were asleep. EUR/USD put on a point and went from 22 to 23 cause . . . . Well cause . . . things are looking so promising over there. I do buy into the EUR short squeeze theory that it will possibly have a violent ramp job before the worst that is to come. The manipulators have to play their game. Main problems are liquidity and the distrust rising among interbank lending. When they begin to shut things down that should be the biggest red flag of all.
Economic Calendar - Empire State moved the markets down this am as manufacturing came in light. Housing Market Index at 1:00. Tomorrow is bigger with Housing Starts and PPI. IMO, don't trust any housing numbers cause the inventory figures are all a lie.
Pivot Points - Know 'em. (They don't work in a flash crash, but in a somewhat docile market they are just fine.
Minis - all over the place. down 13, up 4 and now down 2. Who knows?
Monday's are usually up days. The 30m chart is a buy. Oil had a 6 handle this am before rallying to 71. Gold after peaking at 1249.80 is back down to 1230. Government Motors reports a profit (compared to what I would like to know). Some good news from the oil spill (not near enough as I expect this to be another huge lie that will become the world's largest natural disaster ever). They are trying their hardest to keep this thing propped up.
The options for the market I see are 1) a pop up to complete a possible triangle A-E count with it being in the E leg up. 2) This is a larger ABC corrective and we still have C up to complete it. 3) The fall continues from here in a dramatic fashion.
I'm slightly confused and not willing to step out on any limbs this am. Being a melt up Monday, I'm going with the 30m chart and speculate that the bulls are gonna regain some ground, but not much today. The 60m chart is a little oversold. If I get a black eye today it will be because I'm tugging on Superman's cape and spitting into the wind. The trend is down and the minis falling a brisk 13+ before recovering might be the signal of what we have in store today. The daily charts say the trend will remain down for another week or so which should partially complete wave 1 which is not near over yet.
GL out there. Be a bear! Things suck all round and don't believe one bullish lie they tell you. I'll be along with timely charts if anything pops one way or the other.
Economic Calendar - Empire State moved the markets down this am as manufacturing came in light. Housing Market Index at 1:00. Tomorrow is bigger with Housing Starts and PPI. IMO, don't trust any housing numbers cause the inventory figures are all a lie.
Pivot Points - Know 'em. (They don't work in a flash crash, but in a somewhat docile market they are just fine.
Minis - all over the place. down 13, up 4 and now down 2. Who knows?
Monday's are usually up days. The 30m chart is a buy. Oil had a 6 handle this am before rallying to 71. Gold after peaking at 1249.80 is back down to 1230. Government Motors reports a profit (compared to what I would like to know). Some good news from the oil spill (not near enough as I expect this to be another huge lie that will become the world's largest natural disaster ever). They are trying their hardest to keep this thing propped up.
The options for the market I see are 1) a pop up to complete a possible triangle A-E count with it being in the E leg up. 2) This is a larger ABC corrective and we still have C up to complete it. 3) The fall continues from here in a dramatic fashion.
I'm slightly confused and not willing to step out on any limbs this am. Being a melt up Monday, I'm going with the 30m chart and speculate that the bulls are gonna regain some ground, but not much today. The 60m chart is a little oversold. If I get a black eye today it will be because I'm tugging on Superman's cape and spitting into the wind. The trend is down and the minis falling a brisk 13+ before recovering might be the signal of what we have in store today. The daily charts say the trend will remain down for another week or so which should partially complete wave 1 which is not near over yet.
GL out there. Be a bear! Things suck all round and don't believe one bullish lie they tell you. I'll be along with timely charts if anything pops one way or the other.
Sunday, May 16, 2010
Minis Now Down 12.80 EUR In Trouble. Dollar Ramping up.
LOL - here we go again (except the other way?) - Now 13.80. What a difference a week makes. Last Sunday night the minis were exploding on the "great news" of the bailout of the EU. This Sunday we may get the inverse as we all realize the news was not really so great.
‘Lack of Trust’ Pummels Bank Lending in Europe: Credit Markets " "Money markets are showing rising levels of mistrust between Europe’s banks on concern an almost $1 trillion bailout package won’t prevent a sovereign debt default that might trigger a breakup of the euro." This leak will become a gusher I'm guessing. Democrats open to talks on derivatives is another big whammy here at home as, "Banks claim provision in US regulation bill would rock markets"
The front page of the FT is the place to be right now. I'll continue to update till I crash tonight.
At gap support.
EUR/USD
Dollar
‘Lack of Trust’ Pummels Bank Lending in Europe: Credit Markets " "Money markets are showing rising levels of mistrust between Europe’s banks on concern an almost $1 trillion bailout package won’t prevent a sovereign debt default that might trigger a breakup of the euro." This leak will become a gusher I'm guessing. Democrats open to talks on derivatives is another big whammy here at home as, "Banks claim provision in US regulation bill would rock markets"
The front page of the FT is the place to be right now. I'll continue to update till I crash tonight.
The end is near. Total collapse, bank runs, et al will be coming soon. Obama and Bernanke's bullshit game is coming to an end. At least O will be able to play the race card. Ben will have no such excuse.
At gap support.
Minis Down 5.30 At This Time
It is early and a ramp or further weakness still have time to develop. Gap support appears to be in play. Just a heads up. I will update if anything develops. I'm afraid things could get ugly soon.
Friday, May 14, 2010
Ramp Me Up Scottie!
If anyone can come up with a valid reason for the second in a row ending day ramp job in the face of impending implosion of the EU this weekend with rumors of France and Germany possibly returning to sovereign coin and 1,000 other reasons to be super bearish please let me know. I seem to have missed that email. Looks like another few billion of your tax dollars just got pumped into the minis in the last 10 minutes. I really wanted "Flash Friday" to stick. That would have been cool to have called something like that first. Sadly I bammed (ruined) the day with that call out the chute. I'm in cash for the weekend as usual and looking forward to the fireworks. Remember last Monday? (ODA I'm sure you do.) I plan on spending a lot of time updating charts and will be ready for another great week next week. Enjoy your weekend and keep an eye on the futures.
Nice 11 point ramper (the dow almost picked up 100 pts - SSO scalp on the ramp picked up .75 cents on a not so well timed trade) to give the MSM something to cheer about this weekend. Nothing happened with the EUR or USD to move the markets. Minis set a low of 1123.75 to come within 2.25 of my first target from this morning's post. Not bad considering the minis were at 45 when I made the call. Hope you made some cabbage. Speaking of cabbage, that donate button on the right does work in case you were wondering. Some of the entries I am delivering should be worth a bone I'd think. No, it is not getting the overload shutdown problems that Zero Hedge and other trading platforms appear to be having.
Thanks for all the views and support. Have a great weekend!
SPX 1m - Support of the 38% retracement and the July low support line (pink dashed) could not crack. Might take something bigger to get thru this point.
Nice 11 point ramper (the dow almost picked up 100 pts - SSO scalp on the ramp picked up .75 cents on a not so well timed trade) to give the MSM something to cheer about this weekend. Nothing happened with the EUR or USD to move the markets. Minis set a low of 1123.75 to come within 2.25 of my first target from this morning's post. Not bad considering the minis were at 45 when I made the call. Hope you made some cabbage. Speaking of cabbage, that donate button on the right does work in case you were wondering. Some of the entries I am delivering should be worth a bone I'd think. No, it is not getting the overload shutdown problems that Zero Hedge and other trading platforms appear to be having.
Thanks for all the views and support. Have a great weekend!
SPX 1m - Support of the 38% retracement and the July low support line (pink dashed) could not crack. Might take something bigger to get thru this point.
Minis Parked On 38% Retracement Off Of the Lows. Possible Crack.
UPDATE: Possible crack.
Yet more proof that the low print was a real number. Still got 2hrs of trading left.
Oil getting crushed today.
Yet more proof that the low print was a real number. Still got 2hrs of trading left.
$SPX Support Lines
Update - Red July support caught it the first time and now pink July support caught it. Not much left under this point till 1097, then 1066. The gap is in there from 11 to 22.
Just some charts for you to see no time for in depth commentary. Bottom line is there are all the major support line options that I see. After stopping just under my 42 target let's see what it wants to do from here. Due for a slight corrective I think.
Long term -
Closer -
Closest - That I can get where you can see 'em all. the blue and bronze are gone. those were P2 support options. Red and pink dashed come off of July lows.
GL!
Just some charts for you to see no time for in depth commentary. Bottom line is there are all the major support line options that I see. After stopping just under my 42 target let's see what it wants to do from here. Due for a slight corrective I think.
Long term -
Closest - That I can get where you can see 'em all. the blue and bronze are gone. those were P2 support options. Red and pink dashed come off of July lows.
GL!
Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini (Flash Friday?)
OK, now what? Does it follow thru? the minis are down 9. Anyone thinking Flash Friday? I don't see why not. What catalyst is there to drive it higher as reality sets in? If you did not exit longs yesterday, it is my opinion that you missed the last train station on a long trip down. If you have a financial advisor that is not being very active right now you need to make him active. Do not let him sell you anything (well, maybe a small position in SH single short SPX would be good to hold for a year or twenty). This is the time to go to cash till thengs settle down.
Economic Calendar - Retail sales up this am. 9:15 Industrial Production, Consumer Sentiment at 9:55 and Inventories at 10:00. Not sure how much this matters as the EUR has finally taken it's rightful top spot at the top of the worry list.
E-minis. I have been warning since Wednesday afternoon that this turn was coming. I pretty much nailed the turn yesterday with the RUT post at 12:24 yesterday. Not sure what will stop this fall other than the PPT. Intervention has a chance to really frustrate the bears as the parking break is on and they will not let (or at least tyr not to let) the market get away from them again. New curbs and limits will be set by Monday I think.
There is the wedge (sky blue), the target line, the gap (gray rectangle) and the fib. I have been giving target ranges from 42 to 22 for a few days now. Well she's parked at 42 now sitting on the P2 (bull corrective) yellow support line. When that line goes I honestly believe it will not cross it again. Aloha P2 as my buddy Rich Cash would say. This is the bull's last stand. Given the fact that global economic turmoil has finally become reality to 95% of the globe (the remaining 5% you can see on CNBS all day long). With 1 in 8 here on food stamps (I think I got that right, yes 1 in 8 - read that again - 1 in 8 on food stamps) and the government and the Fed continuing the great rape of America we're screwed. If you have any thoughts of being bullsih and recovery, nix 'em.
The big deal, EUR/USD crossed the Mendoza line last night (as predicted here on Shanky's blog - was not that hard LOL) Let the Euro Limbo begin. How low can you go? How low can you go?
The Government has NASA studying the dollar's ascent to see if Fed propellant can be used to cut costs in the space program. I have been posting this triangle scenario and a target of $89 for months (I love it when a plan comes together and makes me look smarter than the average bull). The dollar's demise is not far off. Ride UUP while you can, but please make sure your stops are set. Yes, my targets go as low as the mid 40's.
OK, let's get down to business. Flash Friday? Not sure, but it is a possibility. Everything sucks and we all have seen the world is standing at the gates ready to rush for the exits. I believe that to all but the old timers that staunchly believe in buy and hold is still prudent are already out of the market. Get the hell out if you are not. As for a target, hmmm... First the minis have to bust that yellow P2 support. I'll go with target 1) 1121.5 gap support, target 2, gap fill at 1107.5 and the big banger a lower low 1183. If we get Flash Friday 1038.
If Germany announces to dump the EUR and go to the Mark tonight that will really rock the market. It will be a major event. Be ready, watch out for the PPT and GL!
Economic Calendar - Retail sales up this am. 9:15 Industrial Production, Consumer Sentiment at 9:55 and Inventories at 10:00. Not sure how much this matters as the EUR has finally taken it's rightful top spot at the top of the worry list.
E-minis. I have been warning since Wednesday afternoon that this turn was coming. I pretty much nailed the turn yesterday with the RUT post at 12:24 yesterday. Not sure what will stop this fall other than the PPT. Intervention has a chance to really frustrate the bears as the parking break is on and they will not let (or at least tyr not to let) the market get away from them again. New curbs and limits will be set by Monday I think.
There is the wedge (sky blue), the target line, the gap (gray rectangle) and the fib. I have been giving target ranges from 42 to 22 for a few days now. Well she's parked at 42 now sitting on the P2 (bull corrective) yellow support line. When that line goes I honestly believe it will not cross it again. Aloha P2 as my buddy Rich Cash would say. This is the bull's last stand. Given the fact that global economic turmoil has finally become reality to 95% of the globe (the remaining 5% you can see on CNBS all day long). With 1 in 8 here on food stamps (I think I got that right, yes 1 in 8 - read that again - 1 in 8 on food stamps) and the government and the Fed continuing the great rape of America we're screwed. If you have any thoughts of being bullsih and recovery, nix 'em.
The big deal, EUR/USD crossed the Mendoza line last night (as predicted here on Shanky's blog - was not that hard LOL) Let the Euro Limbo begin. How low can you go? How low can you go?
If Germany announces to dump the EUR and go to the Mark tonight that will really rock the market. It will be a major event. Be ready, watch out for the PPT and GL!
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