Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Morning Post 10/04/11, SPX, AUD, EUR, JPY, Gold, Oil, USD

"Overnight saw credit markets crushed overseas in Australia and Asia,
Europe continue to sink into the abyss and now pre-market equities in
the US are showing serious weakness with no sign of a bounce." FINal(er) Countdown | ZeroHedge

I'm not sure how long I have been telling you i is all about EU liquidity, but it has been a while. Nothing works without lubrication. Friction is bad. European Liquidity Update: Horrible And Getting Worse | ZeroHedge

I do not know about you, but I think there will be a tradeable event at 10:00 when Helicopter Ben speaks. I HIGHLY suggest you watch this - Bernanke Testifies To The Joint Economic Committee; And The Balance Of D.C. Theater For The Week | ZeroHedge

If you did not get the message from the Afternoon Delight yesterday, it may be time to do what Bert the turtle does and Duck and Cover. When you see the "flash" get to a safe place. There are never any certainties in the markets, but this situation has been building since the crash of '08. It has not gotten any better after trillions have been thrown at it. Is our moment upon us?

As STB has been speculating the market either crashes or they find a way to stabilize it one last time and then it goes. Either way all they are doing is throwing good money after bad buying time before the big crash. What do I want - a fall to the 1040 to 1010 area then a massive corrective to 1220 then the big fall.

AUD/JPY - At support after breaking down. Is it time for a pause and move up to check the white resistance diagonal? I do not know, but if that white support diag goes - duck and cover.

EUR/USD - Wedging into support. STB's targets for a long time have been 35,25 and finally 116. I'll take 128 support as a second target. If that goes. duck and cover.

Gold - STB did a very nice job calling the 1571 level (I have a $1500 max low - which may or may not work. I may bump that to 1428).  Resistance here at 1670 could hold. If it should get above that the upper green channel diagonal should be the lid. If not, duck and cover. You may want to read this Indian Silver Demand Leads to Supply Issues, Capacity Stretched, Higher Premiums - Asian Bullion Demand Remains Strong | ZeroHedge

Oil - Channeling into support at 71.75. All the Saudis and mid east oil magnates that are supposed to be coming to rescue C and MS and the lost - they get pissed when oil is sub $85. If that goes, .....you know what to do.

Minis 15m - Someone late yesterday mentioned a backtest of the yellow channel. It may want the busted support of the larger formation (pink or orange) or even the blue shown in detail yesterday. If not .... you know what to do when you see the flash.

STB is gonna play it by ear today. I have learned that calling this market is a dangerous game. This blog has not reached its lofty status and glorious reputation by being reckless. It uses TA and the Fed to drive major decisions. The Bernank should give us some pointers at 10. I think they are out of bullets and hope like hell they have been planning an exit strategy.

Don't forget - when you see the flash - duck and cover.

GL and GB.

Sorry - I forgot you 1m minis chart - If this thing should pop - I'll refer to the 15m above. If it falls we have to go to a much larger/longer chart.


5m minis - Bear flag or an A of an ABC corrective? I don't think it is any more than either of those options.

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