What you need to know is that things are not as rosy as the market is telling you. How markets can ignore the data prints this month can only be explained by one thing and one thing only, stealth QE. "Overall, a wash, meaning March is about to close with about with 17 misses out of 19 key economic indicators." Q4 GDP Comes As Expected, Claims Miss Big Two Weeks In A Row | ZeroHedge
Daily SPX - Sick does not describe this chart. Indicators DOUBLE (actually triple counting this last little dip) diverging since the November 1292 high and here we are at 1400? Seriously? Add to that all the indications of a blow off (irrational exuberance) top and you have a witches brew primed to induce a major pullback.
SPX 60m - This is my target chart for neat term moves. Basically I look for fib confluence and prior support areas. There are three identified by the green rectangles. Also in this chart I have 4 possible right shoulders all part of a larger head and shoulders. The three support areas are all different possible necklines.
Minis 60m - Yesterday I told you that 1400 to 1393 was a major support area. Price is stuck at the 61% retracement at 1393 support just under the green and yellow diagonals. The upper purple diagonal backtest held on the second run and that was most likely the top for now. I should call it and may tomorrow or Monday. There is also a possible head and shoulders in there, ugly but possible looking to target 1360.
Minis 4hr - Pink rising wedge to triple backtest of purple resistance diagonal should have been it. Sky blue support near 1387 will be the most important stop today if it can get there. Below that you start to move in large chunks (and the Fed and PPT know this as well) to 1374 and then with some intermediate points in the way to 1340.
Patience, form and follow the Fed, I say it everyday. Do not ever discount the power of a QE rumor. With all the econ data failing (see above) one has to wonder how/why the markets just keep on rising. Well not really, we all know QE is the liquidity pump driving the hopium induced rally. Respect the Fed and their power over the markets.
I still think there will be a major 15 to 20% corrective before they induce the last lift into the election. They have to set up another short squeeze.
GL and GB!
UPDATE Thursday Night -
Here is the SPX chart showing the HnS I am looking at - for symmetry's sake the RS just started and the LS was about 6 days. This could churn for a week or just be nothing or be even shorter.
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