Monday, March 19, 2012

Morning Market Summary and Charts 03/19/12 #SPX $ES

I hope everyone enjoyed their St. Patrick's Day weekend. Now it is time to get back to work (or suffering if you are a day trader). Lack of clarity only brings one thing to the markets these days and that's optimism. The new normal is if things are bad that's good, if things are good that's OK and if things are murky and unclear that good as well.

In case you missed it, Apple Announces $10 Billion Share Repurchase Program, $2.65 Quarterly Dividend, Plans To Spend $45 Billion Over 3 Years | ZeroHedge. I really have no comment on this, other than the timing of this event is rather curious. Unless it was already priced in, premarket moves on this announcement were disappointing.

I'm not going to speculate or comment on the Greek settlement till it is completed, but that appears to be moving along just fine as the globalist's first test default appears to be going off without any issues at this point. Of course this is the first of many, so don't get your hopes up.

The futures sit in a nasty spot. Last week STB noted the backtest of the purple diagonal. Thursday and Friday that remained resistance while an old yellow support diagonal was support. This kept prices rising in a very narrow range. Price has now fallen to support under those diagonals at 1393 and there is a rather large hole under price here to the 1377/75 area .

There is no question this market is ripe for a fall. That backtest of the purple diagonal on the minis was the last straw as far as I can see. Any upside from here and I honestly do not know what to tell you. We all know the Fed is in total control and only when they take their foot off the gas does the market stop rising.

Weekly SPX - Any upside from here and I believe we go into an overthrow situation. I think 1402 on the minis was it and quite possibly 1405 on cash. If you scroll thru the chartbook, every SPX chart I have is ready to puke up a lung. The move last week has all the characteristics of a blow off move that should fail here soon. If the Fed can maintain the drive, 1460 is the next station. Above that, nothing but record highs (which POTUS - Mr. Marshall Law - would love to see in an election year).

Patience, form and follow the Fed. That is all you can do. You are at the mercy of the central planning cabal. I'm  a bit antsy and honestly think some sort of top is here. Pulling the trigger calling it will be the tough part. I've ridden the team with the loaded dice this far. When to cash in is always the toughest question.

GL and GB!

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