Thursday, March 15, 2012

Afternoon Delight 03/15/12 - What Can You Say?

What can you say? Another rumor driven QE ramp proving this market has a mind of its own and could care less about valuation (or debt, or the economy, or corruption, or accounting fraud, or whatever). Here Is Why Everything Is Up Today - From Goldman: "Expect The New QE As Soon As April" | ZeroHedge  "the fact that just today, none other than Goldman Sachs' Jan Hatzius came out, roughly at the same time as its call to buy Russell 2000, and said that the Fed would announce THE NEW QE, as soon as next month, and as late as June."

I can go for that, but the question is, do they have the balls to do it at these lofty levels (hello all time highs) or does it come after a quick 20% pullback where they can grab some shorts to squeeze? Either scenario fits the GS call. My long term call has been for a fall to generate the need/fear or to make the printing (QE) more politically accommodating and to prop the markets one last time going into the elections. We've discussed more than once here that they can't print, but they will. They must.

Read, Guest Post: "We Have No Other Choice" | ZeroHedge "What's possible is what we perceive, and what's impossible is what happens later whether we thought it possible or not. The "impossible" systemic collapse will happen because we've left no other option open. We will get "wake-up calls" along the way, but these will be ignored because to change anything in the Status Quo will cause pain to someone somewhere, i.e. it is inconvenient. Could we choose another future other than collapse? At this point, the answer is no, because we have no other choice."

Times are really testy right now. You have to ask the question, who's the captain of the ship? Who is the master and who is the slave? The GS front run (rumor) of the Fed today combined with JPM's earlier this week surely gives the appearance that the Bernank is the one playing catcher here. You have to be asking, what's up? Why all the moves independent or against the Fed here and now? Are we sailing in some really troubled waters that no one is telling us about? You gotta have your radar up now with these two breaking ranks.

Don't forget the 19th will be a massive day for Greece. Throw this in from yesterday's post, ""Holy Cow Batman! It’s the HEAD of European Derivatives for one of the biggest CDS players in the world, Goldman Sachs! He’s running for the hills just days before the settlement of the largest CDS payout in the history of the industry! Lay this fact on top of the retirement of the CEO of the CME and the removal of the CME as a European Derivative Clearing Organization and you have one toxic brew." Lock The Doors & Melt The Witch (h/t Soup)

Two of my last topping criteria came home today, AAPL topped 4600 and the SPX topped $1400. Now, do we get the catalyst Friday or Monday with the Greek debt settlement? What I think I am going to do is call a top very soon and play the  the if I am wrong blame it on QE card. As mentioned, this is not like in the past when the tops were blatantly easy to call. QE1 ended, top. QE2 ended, top. Pretty simple. This time we have stealth QE and the constant rumor of QE3 that has not been played (although it has/is being played right now and is possibly ending based on the actions of GS and JPM this week).

The markets may top here, yet this may not be the high for the year. This is an election year and you know Barry wants the markets frothing going into the election. That may be tough though with the war coming, the rising dollar, oil, treasuries rising and many other factors out there. Sooner or later this thing crashes and does not recover.

NEW! Monthly Cycle Chart - Pretty freaky when you start looking at it.

Minis 60m - Purple diagonal backtest with yellow diagonal support. Today I gave you yellow support then later 1393 support. This chart continues to rock it. I really don't think this purple diag gets beat and that we may have topped today. The yellow channel support (that STB followed from December) is just above, and above that are white and pink diags that run near 1420. If those get busted you go to 1460 resistance and then the prior top.

Be ready, I may unleash the Duck and Cover call at any moment.

GL and GB!

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