Thursday, March 22, 2012

Market Commentary and Charts 03/22/12 #SPX $ES

Well, so they thought they had put all the bad news to bed and the economies were recovering and all was well. Hey, it all sounded so good from November thru last week. The markets bought it all hook line and sinker. The promise of never ending easing and up, up, up away we go.

Well, STB and the core commenters all knew that the truth would eventually rear its ugly head. Their MO is they promise easing and fixes, then get delays, then more delays, promise all will be well, that the next round of easing will be the last, that governments are just fine and economies are becoming established to a point that GDP estimates can be increased. Oh happy day!

All is well. Then they finally apply the solution (see Greece) and not a week later the next storm (or the same one) comes over the horizon, and it is bigger and more threatening than the last. Then they have to find another $50 to $500 billion to bail out the next insolvent government (which is not a government bailout at all), it is a scheme to get money to the banks via insolvent government shells (think AIG and now Greece). At some point they will not be able to print their way out of the hole as they progressively get deeper.

Minis 30m - Looks like the HnS broke down last night and what STB has been looking at for the past several days may be playing out. Purple backtest, then failure, then recovery to the 1404 STB point, then RS, then last night it broke thru 1393 support (as suspected) in a bold move. Now price has the green diagonal near 13885, 1377 support, 1373 (old top and blue diagonal, 1368, 1355, 1351 and then 1341.

The HnS measures right to 1377 which is just above the old 1373 top in a support area near that blue diagonal. Lets see if price can get there and what happens at that point.

Patience, form and follow the Fed. This looks better for the bears, but it is still not "all that". STB had been looking for a catalyst to shake out the equities and China among other things (like they already need LTRO3 and they just got LTRO2 last week) may be wearing on the markets up here. the bond markets are way ahead of the move as usual. Now we just have to wait for the kings of greed to finally withdraw their troops.

If you missed Geitner's testimony yesterday you need to see this - Geithner Asked What Would Be Very Last Debt Ceiling Request; Says "A Lot, Would Make You Feel Uncomfortable" | RealClearPolitics

As usual, the meat and potatoes of the blog are in the comments section where I call the markets moves and the core commenters deliver their insight into market action. Then news feed below is quite astounding as well.

Get ready is all I can say. The collapse that is coming will be totally devastating.

GL and GB!

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