Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Morning Market Summary and Charts 02/21/12 #SPX $ES

Fat Tuesday, I wish I could give up the Follow the Fed trade for Lent, but that's not gonna happen anytime soon. That may happen in March or closer to Easter. I'll let you know what I decide to sacrifice tomorrow and how my progress goes throughout  the season.

For those that missed it, STB turned 3 years old last Saturday. Many thanks to all for the tremendous support over the years (RC and Inc being the original crew deserve special kudos - the current crew is as good as it has ever been). I also need to thank Tyler at Zero Hedge, Karl at The Market Ticker, Mish at Global Economic Trend Analysis and all the others that have me in their blogrolls for their continued support. STB strives to deliver accurate market calls, news and information that all can use in a free space. STB is for the little guy. STB is for the do it yourselfer (or professional) that needs to hear real news and honest analysis not Wall Street MSM spun bullshit. Thanks again for reading and supporting STB.

Is the Greek deal done? It appears to be for now. STB has avoided commentary on the rumor driven and impossible to solve situation over there. IT really is senseless as we all know the situation can only be maintained at best and never truly solved until a massive default and austerity programs are implemented. The solution involves broke countries printing more money piling more debt on top of debt they can't service already. This resolution has been celebrated by the markets since the beginning of the year. Is it time for the party to stop?

Pay attention to the war drums and the price of oil (and Gold). This financial crisis is growing and I have warned that Greece, while a big deal, is a distraction for the many problems both politically and economically around the globe. All the Greece deal is is a function of addressing how the shell (Greece) is will redistribute the funds to other needy nations much the same as AIG did to the banks following the crisis in 2008.

SPX 60m (link) - Here's the wedge and the divergences proving how weak the underlying support is.

SPX Daily (link) - Impressive improbable ramp to the double top. Overbought, embedding and diverging are not good markers for price. NYMO is still screaming turn as it did all last week. MACD HIST is as well.

Minis 30m - The blue wedge is the SPX equivalent for the futures. The gap up to overthrow Monday may have been the last straw. The minis came within 4 points of the April 2010 1373.5 high. There are 6 support points between here and the 1341 area. I address those and the intraday moves in real time in the comments section below, so hang around for more details.

STB has been preaching patience, form and follow the Fed since the beginning of the year. Well protected gangsta hit and run scalp trades are about the only option now till the turn is set. Trying to nail and upside number has been futile and since that 1329 I have just been watching in amazement as the improbable ramps run day after day. This market will only stop when they are ready. When their profits (all the funds they have stolen from the sheeple - they sell to us and exit leaving the moronic bubble chasers holding the bag) have been made and their shorts are positioned.

We may get a sell the news moment or corrective here, but I'm still watching those key dates in March (9,13,20) for when some really major action may materialize. More on this to come as I will break out the FOMC chart and the CPC chart tomorrow morning.

Looking forward to the AD later today. It will be a good one.

GL and GB!

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