Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Morning Market Commentary and Charts 02/29/12 $ES #SPX #EUR/USD #Gas

So what we get drunk. So what we don't sleep. So what we go out. That's how its supposed to be living young and wild and free. I'm tempted to rewrite that song and relate it to the financial crisis. Should not be too hard. Pretty much nails the Keynsian mantra and the life we live under the Fed today.

EUR/USD - Just one massive green rising (bearish) wedge.

Closer view at the right side of the chart as price interacts with green LT support. Clear yellow channel down that has resistance being tested here.

And a little closer for the yellow channel - since they just dumpred/printed a few hundred more billions Euros, that upper channel resistance should hold. green LT support should give way and pink channel support should be the next stop. STB has been on the EUR falling to 135, 125 and finally 116 for well over a year now.

Your dollar since 2001. 121 to 78 is a 36% decline. That beats what the Fed wants to do over the next 20 years, which is drive it down another 30% from here. And some wonder why gold and silver are going nuts. It won't matter, cause if the Fed keeps on printing at this rate and monetizing treasuries that Bankor will be here before you know it and the dollar will be long gone.

Note in July of '01 the SPX was at 1239. Rough calculations, about a 25% haircut in dollar terms over the past 10 years. I'm sure your advisor has told you all about that. Just follow the green wedge till it busts support. STB has had a 4 handle target for the dollar since I began blogging.

When the government starts meddling in to many things and the Fed keeps on printing bad things usually happen. The recent spike in gas prices is a great example of this. "TrimTabs quantifies the impact of this implicit tax on consumption, noting three key factors that will remain supportive of high oil prices: Central Bank liquidity provision (ZIRP), political tensions, and implicit USD devaluation. Another Unintended Consequence: $80 Billion 'Gas Price' Tax On Consumption | ZeroHedge. Soup, you'd been asking, I think Biderman's thoughts are spot on.

$GASO Daily- I'd expect the gap to close at $3.02, then a good target is near $2.80 and if Obummer releases the reserves in this election year (never mind the economic conditions) LT support at $@.45 could be in ply, but that would be extreme,

OH, the SPX, almost forgot, sorry bout that - does it matter? Nope, nothing matters as we sit an PATIENTLY wait on the next FOMC meeting and the Green bailout on the 20th. The bears party will get rolling sooner than later.

Minis - 30m - and the yellow channel support remains resistance like a magnet. Purple diag is support.

GL and GB!

No comments:

Post a Comment

Keep it civil and respectful to others.