A Few Quick Thoughts.

Sorry, but I'm spent. Planting the crisis garden, a full baseball schedule and Little Shanky's 8th bday weekend has me wiped out. You'll get a full report around 9 in the am.

Bottom line is we need to know how the foreign markets will react. The minis opened up down 4 which is not all that inspiring. A little more than 100 points on the DOW is not enough to get me all that freaked out with the carry trade still alive and kicking. We need volume. Everything is in place, the wedge, the dialy indicators, the 60m chart, the VIX and all the glorious news. I am still holding out for my "external event". I want something big. OBTW not sure if you knew but A 6.3-magnitude earthquake struck Papua New Guinea Sunday morning, the U.S. Geological Survey reported.Uh, you get the feeling something (or someone) is trying to tell us something?

Sorry, but I have to go into wait and see mode. The one chart I will share is the weekly SPX. I got the divergence in NYMO combined with the top in SPXA50 that has done a great job in timing the last few tops. Price has lived outside the top of the weekly BB for the past 5 weeks. That doji may be the ultimate signal. F Sto has crossed. RSI hit 70 and may be rolling over. If we can get the MACD hist to turn down and that S Sto cross to confirm this week, I will call top (remember the RSI cross of the trendline is my ultimate trend change indicator). Again, lets see what happens while we're asleep. Sorry, I can not make a more definitive call at this time. GL as always.

SPX Weekly Chart Link - 

Must Read

I'm still updating charts and getting my bearings. No comments at this time on the markets.

You all know I am pretty much Mr. Negative or something like that. I have been for a long time. Every now and then it is nice to hear an "expert" confirm my thoughts and theories. Well, if John Taylor of FX Concepts, the biggest currency hedge fund in the world is qualified as an expert, then I am in some pretty good company. Either he's been reading Shanky's blog or we think a lot alike. Of course I have been saying what he is for over a year now, so he may be a bit late to the game. In the meantime, this blog will remain in the shadows of the big boys plodding along, sadly I guess where it deserves to be.

Please read Step Aside Roubini - FX Concepts' John Taylor Is The New Dr. Doom: "2011 Will Be Worse Than 2008" from my favorite blog Zero Hedge.

"The cycles and very simple fundamentals are enough to predict that 2011 will be worse than 2008. The medium-term cycles tell us that there is a very high probability of a serious bout of risk aversion beginning in the next five trading days and continuing into the week of May 3. This is likely to be most apparent in Europe, but it should also impact the equity and commodity markets around the world. The stream of strong economic and corporate news, plus continued benign inflation outside of Asia should assure us of a further risk rally, starting in May and running through July and possibly into early August. This decline after the August peak should be far more serious and we believe it will be the start of a major market rout continuing into the middle of 2011, at a minimum. The deflationary recession that will accompany this market collapse, at least in the developed world, will put extreme pressure on the Eurozone and the EMU structure. The second half of this decade will witness a very different world." John Taylor.

Snap Shot SPX

Thanks for a great week of views, comments and to those that hit the donate button today. I'm relieved the charts told the truth and called this move. I'll update charts and get a post out over the weekend with some thoughts. Lil' Shank #2 turns 8 Sunday and Spencer the Cavalier King Charles Spaniel turns 1 so lot's of parties this weekend.  I feel like a party! Take care and enjoy your weekend.

3:25 Update - Not sure what to think. Looks like it should be a completed corrective having retraced to the 38% fib in a nice ABC. Way quiet with volume dead or dying. If vol picks back up it could fall some more. That red support line is ont that covers the lows going back to 03/09. Beyond that is really nothing till 1140. That would be the type of fall we need for confirmation this is a P3 event. If this is a massive H&S with right shoulder forming now that gets us near 1160 in a quick move. Possible continuation Monday, but if it does not get confirmation we'll be right back to the same old stuff. Like ODA said, the foreign markets have to react to this, let's see what happens. You have to remember this market is not real. It is manipulated. I'll do a detailed post sometime this weekend.

SPX at 61.8% of the 1176 low. There is another fib point but let's work with this one for now. See blue boxes. I would kill for a crack of 1188.55. What would a bounce here form? One nasty ass H&S on the SPX. Sorry, but not updating Stockcharts today at this time. I'm a little busy and charting in TOS only as I trade. If it slows down and we get a pop I'll swing over and do what I can.

Minis went right to the target -

ODA I assume you are a happy camper today. Volume is much better. How do we analyze the fall? 1195 was the 61.8% retracement off the 1186 low. The green line is the support line from the February lows. The blue line is support from the march 16 lows. It is back into the Pink channel and the wedge from the 667 lows. 1187 is the line in the sand. If that cracks all hell might break loose. They have set this up with many technical support levels for the algos to buy away at. It will take an incredible push to get thru. After 87 I see 73. After that it gets way down. To assume a TOP is in is very likely now.

UPDATE - With the GS fraud possibilities I would expect the market to rally at least 1000 points. You know how we love to buy bad news. (That was a joke). What is not a joke is how hard the PPT is working right now to keep this market afloat. You have to ask yourself (esp given the fraud charges) why is this market not down very significantly right now? How is this not a total run away situation? Because the FUCKING FRAUD is so FUCKING RAMPANT it is out of control. So we get earthquakes, volcanoes and now GS fraud - I think SETI may be getting signals soon at this rate, but the market will never go down. What t fing joke this market is.


Mini's possible H&S target 90. I said possible. If it can crack 1200 look out. The pink and yellow trendlines are the top of a channel and the bull corrective's top TL.

Back at the recent wedge top line. Might stop here. Dashed blue is the bull corrective top TL. See the fibs. If it gets to 98 or 97 then it may bounce. 1200 is there as well.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

I see it, you see it, but the whole friggin world doesn't? As money piles in at the top, it makes you wonder. Heck, the whole frigging world is pointing to the fib retracements and numerous other topping signals and yet the funds keep on piling in and the ramps just a keep on ramping. I tell you this, as long as the carry trade is alive and well, this may never stop. As I have stated before, this market may be all there is between our government and anarchy. The high values are enough to keep the masses satisfied and distracted from reality. Well my brother, reality will come one day and that day will not be pretty when we have to atone for all our sins.

ISEE Index - 52 week high yesterday.

Economic Calendar - After housing starts Consumer Sentiment at 9:55. 75 is the number.

Earnings Calendar - C reports Monday before the open.

Pivot Points - Know 'em

SPX 60m - OK,  so we got the 30m cross yesterday and looks like today we may want to put the hammer down with the 60m (did I mention the dailys don't look so hot either?). If the PPT can fight this trifecta off it would be amazing. Maybe the pressure of the 30 and 60 together can finally get the dailys to roll over. Minis down 4 at this time. Let's hope this is not the standard issue gap down and fill we have see all to often this year. Looks to me like they screwed up their timing with the 30m MACD and more weakness should be expected. I will be waiting patiently most likely till the 9:55 Consumer Sentiment number pops out. Today could be interesting but only if we can get the volume to male the pull.

GL and have a great weekend!

Look Into The Futures

Been a while since I have done one of these posts, but then again the reasons have been few and far between. Thanks to this post on ZH - Futures Testing Support As Liberty 33 Asleep At The Wheel I was alerted to the futures issue (before I actually would have looked).I'll throw this one in for good measure from ZH as well - George Soros Warns Of Biggest Market Crash To Come, As "We Are Facing A Yet Larger Bubble" Than During Credit Crisis. Maybe if you won't listen to me you can hear it from this really rich SOB (I'm sure he's baiting something for his trades, so a salt shaker comes with this link).


The 60m minis chart below shows a 6 point decline in the minis at this time (1:00 am). The yellow line is the corrective's (bull run off of 667) top trendline, The Green lines are the wedge rising off the February lows. The pink line is a support line developed in this last run up. Blue dashed is another possible support line. This 60m chart looks a little oversold, but more weakness is possible as the daily chart is a bout to fall like a rock. Sadly they are most likely setting up another gap down springboard for the market in the morning. You know this market's appetite to cover gap down opens. Could it be something worse? Based on all my charts over the past few days musing over a potential fall set up, maybe this is something real. Of course anything that would indicate a move south should be viewed with extreme caution and possible reverse psychology. GL!

Haul Butt If It Whipsaws

UPDATE: No impulse at all. Very worried that they won't be able to pull it down. Yes, got MACD cross, but WTH is going on with S Sto? SPX did set a lower low and is still holding a lower high. The fly in the ointment may be that the DOW set a higher high, but that is cause smaller concentration with BAC and GE coming tomorrow. We may have to wait a day or till Monday. While this counter by "them" was not all that surprising, each one is sure getting more aggravating. 60m is getting close to bear cross again. Maybe we get a double whammy tomorow!

Must have volume -Intraday Volume Update: Volume Plunges: Market Up, Volume Surge: Market Down

Here is the CPC chart looking for a little more room possibly.Per the famous Rich Cash, I added CPCE to the chart.

 
OLD Post.

MACD has not confirmed but.....SPX 30m about to possibly confirm trend change. Bullish reversal and 30m MACD bear cross (on TOS chart) plus all the other stuff.  If it whipsaws haul butt and don't look back. I have not entered any positions yet. No guarantees. Do your own homework. Always use stops. With BAC and GE in the am this is a high risk entry to short (not to mention the fact that the market is more manipulated than anytime in history). Like the signs say, "Enter at your own risk."

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

Happy tax day! Please donate generously! Sadly your refund may not be in the form of cash. Wouldn't it be nice if we could pay them with IOU's. You better enjoy this one cause next year is really gonna suck (well, if you still have a job and are actually making any money)..

Jobless jumps, but thank goodness only another 424 thousand lost their jobs. Man, it could be a lot worse. This is great news. you know that at this rate by the end of the year averaging this same number only a few million more will be out of work. CNBC, if you are listening, as soon as Santeli was done speaking after the number was announced I turned your crap show off.


Earnings Calendar - GOOG after the close. BAC and GE before the open tomorrow

Economic Calendar - Jobs, worse than expected and knocked the minis down 3 to 1202.5. Huge day with many announcements including Philly Fed at 10, Natgas at 10:30 and housing market index at 1.

Pivot Points - Know 'em.

Well, you know what I think.Can they continue to pull rabbits out of the hat? The minis are set for their standard gap down open with the 30m working off being oversold. The minis and most indexes took out their upper resistance lines for the bull market corrective yesterday. You rarely hear anyone bitch about a market going up, but if they don't let this thing breathe soon, you might hear a little uproar. I guess they really don't give a shit. They have proven that they have the ability to take every bubble to the extremes and they are doing the same here. All hail the mighty bonus! To hell with the country, I need a third house in the Hamptons.

Not sure I can add anything to the post from the close yesterday, so if you want to see a chart or two, scroll down. If something should happen I'll be screaming and posting.

I'll add my 30m SPX. I bark about the 30m minis and the 30m SPX quite a bit. This is my main trading chart. SSO up and SDS down. I'll be waiting on the MACD to cross. I like the black TL at 83 as a target if it gets thru the red support line.The key is to remember to buy at the bottoms! Gotta play it both ways.

As a disclaimer, nothing is fool proof. Do your own homework. Always use stops and have a set trading plan. This system works for me, but things change and time frames and signals don't always work (see the daily chart LOL). I'll place buy and sell lines on this chart when they hit, but they are not guaranteed in any way.


Dollar - got a pop overnight. but 30m is about to roll over. Should have more weakness here.
Natgas - Report at 10:30 today. Have your fingers on the trigger. Is the pop over? Was this just a pause before further weakness? It has been range bound for over a week now.
Oil - Might be rebounding. With all the talk about Israel and Iran teeing it up sometime soon I would not expect any weakness.
Gold - Should remain range bound leaning to more weakness
EUR/USD -  oversold on the 60m, but you never know. One of the PIIGS could puke up a lung any minute.

GL!

I Think You Have To Get Ready For A Turn

I'm just saying, you know how stupid this sounds, like the market could actually turn. LMAO. With that thought in mind I present the following. 

CPC is getting near the extremes that brought the last big sell off. It is not there yet and we may need a little pop to get us there, but it is in the potential reversal zone. Last time it was down here we got a major move.

 Daily SPX - OK, price is above the daily BB. It is just under resistance. The red wedge is ending. The BB is pinching price into support. The BB may be vertical at this point. The BB width is very narrow indicating volatility. It has been overbought for an extended period.

 SPX weekly - I have been bringing you this chart with targets since October. I have cautioned that this rally will be over when the RSI crosses that red support line. With RSI finally over 80 one would think that would be enough. I will be truly amazed if it crosses the green target zone which contains the 200ma at 1224, the gap, the 61.8% retracement at 1230 and C=A at 1214. In my opinion this last push that got the market thru the bear market upper trendline is the blow off top suckers rally.

I'm not saying go short the market. I'm saying this should be a major turning point if things were "normal". I will continue to play my SDS and SSO up and down on the 30m S Sto crosses on SPX. They can ramp this SOB to the moon for all I care, but if this technical intersection on the daily chart does not produce a reversal I'll be amazed (yes, even more than I already am). GL!