Morning Charts 12/31/13 SPX /ES

SPX Daily chart from this day last year - It was the perfect end to the final rising wedge. It was the technical moment that should have been but wasn't. I still contend this was "the" top. 

That of course begat this obamination of BS - The E and D points were shifted to the right. I hung on to the wedge as long as I could and then it just got stupid from there. Congratulations, they are entering their unprecedented 4th technical overthrow. 

You've heard me recap all the overthrows and QE4eva hundreds of times. We've discussed at length the lies, manipulation and how they can't even let the markets correct now. Will this be the year? I don't know, but I do know that with every passing day some sort of real recovery becomes that much more difficult. More on all of this next week as I try to figure it out. 


And here is your usual New Years gift from STB. Many thanks to all for another great year on the blog. It's a long hard fight and I appreciate you all being in the trenches with me. 

ENJOY!

Happy New Year!

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 12/30/13 SPX /ES

No commentary this morning. 

Minis 4hr - The third iteration of the rising green wedge. You can see the first two busted wedge supports as dashed green diagonals. 

Minis 60m - And the upper yellow rising wedge that suspiciously broke support last night before reaching the upper green wedge resistance. 1823 and 1810 are support and 1851 is resistance. That's a very wide range. 

More to come below. 


Have a good day. 

GL and GB!

Open Weekend Post 12/28-29-13

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge. 


If you see it post it. 


Have a great weekend. 

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 12/27/13 SPX /ES

10y over 3%? Might be time for the Fed to divert some resourses from the BTFATH?

Bull/Bear ratio worst ever? 

Probability of a crash is soaring? 

Twitter, which makes nothing and has ZERO profit is in the top 20% market cap for the SPX? 

Employment? Debt? Shall I continue? 

What could go wrong? 
STB will remain bullishly in the bear camp

Charts to come below. 



Have a good day.

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 12/26/13 SPX /ES

Here we go again? Time for another death defying overthrow, or does reality ever have a chance of setting in? 

SPX Daily - 

Minis 60m - Formless, lost, stupid, idiotic - there is some semblance of a nt yellow upper resistance, but coming into this green resistance area around 1846 price is just wandering, and of course finding its way to upper green resistance instead of lower. 

OK, so now we have a  the post Xmas, New Year BS to deal with. The distractions will keep coming. No one (other than us greater fools here) will complain about the market going up. The Great and Powerful Oz is no longer hidden behind the curtain, but folks don't seem to mind the illusion that's been created - well - so far they don't. This fairy tale is coming to an end sooner than later and the happy ending all are expecting is not going to be there. 

STB saw a UFO last night, so good STB went as far as to report it to MUFON. Nothing more than a really odd light up in the sky, but it was like no light I have ever seen before. 


Happy New Years!

GL and GB!

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays From STB!

Merry Christmas to all. 

Many thanks to all that have visited and contributed over the year to the blog. I wish you all a very merry and blessed Christmas. 



GL and GB!

Shanky's Christmas Story

Christmas Eve, something about watching Rudolph and seeing the Island of Misfit Toys kinda hit home with me last night relating to us here on the blog. True Bears or Realists - Few in number, relegated to some far off island, outcast, persecuted, with no hope of success or even finding a loving home. Is there a Santa for us out there? Can we signal for Rudolph tonight to come rescue us from our purgatory? 

Can we be like Charlie Brown and take our tree and leave? I mean the Burgermeister Meisterburgers won't let us play with our toys anymore, and the Winter Warlock has all his powers back and has turned to the dark side again. We're as screwed as Frosty was when he went into the greenhouse. 

Will our hideous story have a fairy tale ending with the Grinch riding into town bringing us back all our presents? Will the Ghosts of Christmas Past, Present and Future pay a visit to 33 Liberty and get Scrooge to change his ways or is our path already set with no chance of altering the future? 

It sure would be nice for a bit of reality to set in in the new year. I think it is going to take the true meaning of Christmas, the reason for the season, to shine in all His glory before we can rid this Christmas Carol from the nightmare. Can we, the Bob Cratchit's, at least have a bone thrown in our direction? 

Sadly I'm afraid this nightmare has gone too far. We're far too ill. Tiny Tim will not be saved this time. Enjoy the season while we still can. Maybe out here on the Island of Misfit Toys separated from the new normal is the best place to be. Revel in the reason for the season. Enjoy family and friends and share some wonderful moments while we still can. 

You see we don't need their reality to enjoy Christmas. 

"“And the Grinch, with his Grinch-feet ice cold in the snow,  stood puzzling and puzzling, how could it be so? It came without ribbons. It came without tags. It came without packages, boxes or bags. And he puzzled and puzzled 'till his puzzler was sore. Then the Grinch thought of something he hadn't before. What if Christmas, he thought, doesn't come from a store. What if Christmas, perhaps, means a little bit more.” 

We'll never cry Boo Hoo, as long as we have hands to clasp and we have we. They can never take away the true meaning of Christmas. 

Linus Van Pelt: "And there were in the same country shepherds abiding in the field, keeping watch over their flock by night. And lo, the angel of the Lord came upon them, and the glory of the Lord shone round about them: and they were sore afraid. And the angel said unto them, 'Fear not: for behold, I bring unto you good tidings of great joy, which shall be to all people. For unto you is born this day in the City of David a Savior, which is Christ the Lord. And this shall be a sign unto you; Ye shall find the babe wrapped in swaddling clothes, lying in a manger.' And suddenly there was with the angel a multitude of the heavenly host, praising God, and saying, 'Glory to God in the highest, and on earth peace, good will toward men.'"

[Linus picks up his blanket and walks back towards Charlie Brown]

Linus Van Pelt: That's what Christmas is all about, Charlie Brown.

Merry Christmas and happy holidays,

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 12/23/13 SPX /ES

Not much to say this morning. This week I'm gonna try and not let them destroy my Christmas. Like Charlie Brown, I'm gonna take my tree home and screw everyone else. 

Today, prolly all week, I will simply show you what it is and let you form your own opinions. I will be gathering my thoughts for next year at this time. 

Minis 4hr - Not sure when I first mentioned it last week but the STB spot on the 23rd at 1823 is in play today. This chart is from the home computer. I'll be without my work computer chart all week. 

Daily SPX - 

My suggestion, do your best to enjoy what's left of Christmas. Embrace it. Embrace the reason for the season. Tune out all the bullshit for a couple of days and get your overall perspective right. 
Merry Christmas and happy holidays. 

GL and GB!

Open Weekend Post 12/21-22/13

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge. 

If you see it post it. I will not be around much this weekend, but I will check in and post anything I find of interest.

See Fridays post for all the charting and top talk info you need to see.

Daily SPX -  Another overthrow? We had yet another 61% retrace to a new high scenario. Insanity rules in fantasy land. Oh, did I mention the 15th consecutive negative divergence without any sort of meaningful correction? Never seen anything like it. Then again we've never experienced a completely rigged and manipulated market either. I'll add bout the only sign the reversal here was gonna happen is STB's fav early turn indicator the MACD histogram. Now, none of this means that the turn is in. I remain very bearish, but I'm not putting money on that feeling. The Fed has taught me reversals are impossible. 

Enjoy the weekend and the coming Christmas week.



Merry Christmas and happy holidays. 

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 12/20/13 SPX /ES

Quite honestly, I'm not sure how you could attain a more perfect setup for a reversal than this. The triple top scenario on top of everything else we've been discussing since mid November. I could not think of a better way to go out (and the Fed could not think of a better set up to thwart). 

It's a war now. The Fed must keep the market afloat to defend the illusion they've created that the economy is fine and the recovery is continuing. Their war is against natural market forces and reality. The Fed has all the CB's, the algos, the servers, the BLS and the printers on their side. They can pull any lever they want at anytime to control the market now (see Wednesday from 2 to 4 pm).  Reality, well all reality has is time. Funny how history has always shown that time tells all. 


Daily SPX - OK, follow me here. This is your 2013 technical review. "A Bear's Nightmare" - 

All the red lines pointing down from L to R are negative divergences - they are bad. The black vertical dashed lines mark overthrows where the negative divergences (market forces that under any normal circumstances create a correction) have been oppressed. Starting at the first of this year at 1474 they blew thru what should have been the first point (the actual market top - where this game should have ended)  a correction should have occurred. Then in May and later in October the same instance occurred. The the first overthrow caused a breakout over the pink rising wedge resistance. This allowed and even steeper blue rising wedge to form of which the second overthrow confirmed the breakout. The third overthrow caused an overthrow of the blue ricing wedge and formed the even steeper black rising wedge. The black rising wedge is the first of the four wedges to breakdown. The black rising wedge breakdown is now being backtested. 

This could be the moment all the bears have been waiting for. A backtest of the fourth rising wedge that broke down under a triple top in the 15th consecutive daily divergence after three technical overthrows. Technically there may have never been a point in history that is this conclusive. Of course, there has never been a more manipulated or controlled market like this in history. Can't wait to see what the Fed can pull out of its hat here with taper ON.

Minis 4hr - Everything you need to know is in this chart

More to come below. 
Merry Christmas and happy holidays. 

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 12/19/13 SPX /ES

Early post. And for your holy crap! moment of the morning, and no it has nothing to do with taper (I'm so over all of that), try this on for size - Is the U.S. Government Changing the Amount In People’s Financial Accounts and Manipulating Financial Systems with Its Offensive Cyber Capabilities?

I was gonna leave the bail-in discussions off the table till next year, but a stealth bail-in? Financial theft will be big on the STB agenda next year as well as further emphasis on diversifying out of the dollar and personal liberty.

On to the big lie - 

Minis 4hr - Bout to death cross. May I suggest you look at the lower left side of this chart and take a gander at what happened the last time this chart got a death cross. Apparently it was some sort of trigger (more like launch code). I guess "they" don't like anything threatening the status qoe's authoriti. I'm not saying they will try to move from here, the moon, on to Mars, but that possibility exists in the Matrix. I still prefer down and am very fearful of January and February.

Every line and diagonal you need to see is held in this handy little chart. I got to looking at the action yesterday and the more I looked the more confused or lost I got That's not good for you dear reader. When your market sherpa goes looney at the top of the mountain, that should be cause for real concern.

Just kidding, I'm not really lost. Thought I'd try to scare you a bit there. I am in a serious holding pattern though as there is very little near term form to follow now after the abomination yesterday. 

More to come below. Remember, do not forget, taper IS bad.

The man was way ahead of his time - 

"Look, Charlie, let's face it. We all know that Christmas is a big commercial racket. It's run by a big eastern syndicate, you know"

Lucy Van Pelt: 



Merry Christmas and happy holidays. 

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 12/18/13 SPX /ES

OK, another easy post this morning. This one is a simple, "I told you so, for years now" post. I'll simply link a few posts from around the web to summarize what I've been trying to communicate to you over the years. 

Let's start with Things That Make You Go Hmmm... Like Being Completely Out Of Touch With Reality where you will find -

"From the moment Richard Nixon toppled the US dollar from its golden foundation and ushered in the era of pure fiat money (oxymoron though that may be) on August 15, 1971, there has been a ubiquitous and dangerous synonym for "growth": credit.

The world embarked upon a multi-decade credit-fueled binge and claimed the results as growth.

Fanciful."

From there let's move to 83 Numbers From 2013 That Are Almost Too Crazy To Believe here you'll find many astounding facts that will blow your mind. Remember TBTF and how we HAD to curtail and reign in the big banks so another crisis would never happen again?

"#7 The six largest banks in the United States (JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley) have collectively gotten 37 percent larger over the past five years."

And the budget deal? HA! I loved this cartoon on Zero Hedge this morning -

As for the military, funny that the global elite would bite the hand that keeps them in business, let their arrogance be put high on a pedestal for all to see! Senate GOP fails in final bid to block military pension cuts to budget bill. "A provision in the already House-passed bill would cut retirement benefits for military retirees by $6 billion over 10 years." How kind. Thanks guys for putting your ass on the line, but, you know, what we promised you and what you count on for a living and all, well, tough shit. Thanks for your service. OBTW, you veterans are all on the US terrorist list, so don't slip up.

This move may not be favorable with the current forces that monitor and control that global police state for the USSA. Police state? Shuh, fo real, police state, check this out (h/t RC) Former Top NSA Official: “We Are Now In A Police State”. 1984 is real. 

On to the lie - 

FOMC day! To taper or not to taper, this is the question. I say no and no real hints either, but we will have to see. I highly doubt that they will want to spoil Christmas for the markets. 

Daily SPX - For cash it is simple, watch the black support diagonal, the lower BB and the 50dma all around the 1794 area. If this holds, Merry Xmas, if not, there is a massive hole below with little support.

Minis 4hr - She either breaks out and up in the yellow wedge or down in the gray wedge. Pretty clear they are at a major fork in the road and no one knows which way they will go. 

More to come below. Get ur popcorn ready. Could be an exciting day.

Merry Christmas and happy holidays. 

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 12/17/13 SPX /ES

All the time in the world for commentary this morning, and I have nothing to say. Not feeling like regurgitating the whole taper on/off issues and the whole modern day unregulated, corrupt and manipulated market meme either. I think you've had that beaten into your head by now. 

All there is to do now is wait on the Fed to tell us what they intend on doing and then act accordingly. Acting in any other (like .... rational) manner has proven to be hazardous to your portfolio. It's all about taper and nothing else at this time. I believe we'll have some very surprising announcements from the Fed in early 2014. Could it be the year of the US bail-in? More to come on my thoughts for 2014. 

Daily SPX - Rising red wedge busted and ell to backtest busted resistance on the rising black wedge. BB's are narrow which indicates coming volatility. All I have to say is when that lower black wedge support goes, it should be all over at that point.

Minis 60m - Backtesting busted upper long term blue market resistance diagonal. I mentioned yesterday this could possibly be a fantastic spot to take a shot at a well guarded short. It is the type of place where a violent reversal could occur. Of course I will be waiting till I see the whites of their eyes and know more of the Fed's intentions before I swing anything long or short here. There was a time when this sort of retracement and backtest would have had me screaming for all to short at such a spot, but in this Fed dominated POS market no more can one do such a thing.

More to come below. I think today should be narrow and quiet unless rumors start flying. Watch the Fed speak and reactions to it. There could be a head fake or two out there.

Merry Christmas and happy holidays. 

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 12/16/13 SPX /ES

FOMC week. Oh joy! A week full of propaganda shills and more BS than you can fit inside a Christmas turkey. Be ready to deal with it. I honestly don't think the Fed can tip their hand on when they actually plan to taper. I think there is very little chance they will taper now. If they were to tell us they were going to taper in January or February, the reaction would be identical to tapering now. So, they give us virtually nothing to go on is what I'm thinking. This will salvage the market thru Xmas season and buy them a bit moar time. 

The bogus budget vote should happen this week as well. No comment here is really necessary as this, if it happens, is a meaningless act to give the world hope there is some sort of control over spending in DC when there isn't. 

STB will keep the commentary subdued till  the FOMC is complete. All we can do is follow their lead. Front-running them and being wrong has proven to be disastrous.

Minis 4hr - Oh happy day! I don't exactly get why the minis are up close to 10, but good for bully! I'm so happy for him. Wham, bam, thank you mam, STB targets 1 and 2 met and here we are reversing off busted pink channel resistance support. Good news for the bears is that they took back the blue long term market resistance diagonal. This means there is actually now a resistance point above price now. This also means that THE top could be set. At this point anything above 85 the bears need to start sweating, and anything above 91 the better get back in their caves.

Minis daily - The 50dma support was hit and, as usual, that's all they were willing to give. A meaningful retracement is impossible at this point. They will give you the 23% retracement and the 50dma, but they are apparently not willing to give any more than that. Another negative for bully is they lost the broad range beige support. While they may pitch taper as a positive, it isn't. Don't be fooled. 

Daily SPX - Cash did not even bother to sniff the 50dma. All you got here was a backtest of busted blue rising wedge resistance. The rising black wedge did lose support. Now what STB will be looking for is possibly a backtest of the black support and a full blown reversal off that point. Maybe a little double top action to set up the final blow? That would be nice.

And for your Xmas moment of the day -

Ralphie: Oooh fuuudge!
Ralphie as Adult: [narrating] Only I didn't say "Fudge." I said THE word, the big one, the queen-mother of dirty words, the "F-dash-dash-dash" word!
Mr. Parker: [stunned] *What* did you say?
Ralphie: Uh, um...
Mr. Parker: That's... what I thought you said. Get in the car. Go on!
Ralphie as Adult: [narrating] It was all over - I was dead. What would it be? The guillotine? Hanging? The chair? The rack? The Chinese water torture? Hmmph. Mere child's play compared to what surely awaited me.

I suspect very low volume and lot's of really positive spin this week. 

More to come below. 


Merry Christmas and happy holidays.

GL and GB!

Open Weekend Post 12/14-15/13

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge. 

If you see it post it. 

Minis 1m Friday - Beige range support (you can see it in Friday's post) held overnight but gave way during trading and then became resistance, thus creating a rather precarious place for the market to close going into Fedspeak week. So she's closed well below long term blue support which has held up the market (in a dramatically overthrown/overbought situation) for some time now and is somehow not in a free fall at this point.

And just like the Grinch our government is putting us to bed with our cup of milk, I suspect that soon enough they will be stealing everything from us as well.

And his fib fooled the child. Then he patted her head, he got her a drink, and he sent her to bed. And when Cindy Lou Who was in bed with her cup, he crupt to the chimney and stuffed the tree up. Then he went up the chimney himself, the old liar, and the last thing he took was the log for their fire. On their walls, he left nothing but hooks and some wire. And the one speck of food that he left in the house was a crumb that was even too small for a mouse.

Merry Christmas and happy holidays. 

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 12/13/13 SPX /ES

Well, she continues to drift. Unusual for these times. When major support areas get challenged these days they usually stand firm and produce a bounce. Somehow they are holding it up. It should be letting go in a big way here.

Minis 4hr - Thar's a huge hole under that beige support and that blue diagonal is broken.

Minis 60m - 

Daily SPX - Everything I see here points down. As usual I'll watch for the MACD hist to turn as a leading indicator a reversal may come. SPXA50 may have to run to the 100 mark. RSI looks weak and has room to run to get to support.

Triskaidekaphobia day!

More to come below.

Have a good weekend. Merry Christmas and happy holidays. 

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 12/12/13 SPX /ES

Try this number on for size, $17,225,080,300,000. At the time I typed this (9:00 est) that was our national debt according to usdebtclock.org. Now try this number on for size, $28,000,000,000. That is how much the budget deal cuts the national debt. That is a .0016% deficit reduction. I guess it is really not a big deal, I mean our unfunded liabilities as a nation are only $126,938,170,000,000.

According to Ryan there is zero chance of cutting meaningful spending under this administration. So we're gonna wait out the debt game another couple of years now? And we laugh about QE and kicking the can. This is the ultimate #FAIL.

I guess when you have a lame duck, narcissistic, selfie loving potus that has proven his willingness in the last shutdown to basically piss on the nation and will use the DHS, NSA and IRS without regard to "motivate" congress, that is the type of deals you get. No wonder congress has an all time low approval rating. They worked well less than half the year this year. WTF show up to work when a dictator is in charge, while you can still make millions on insider information while being legally able to spread any propaganda you like?

So, we've totally thrown in the towel at this point. Debt is out of control, deficit spending is out of control, monetization of debt is out of control, easing is keeping the markets afloat hiding the true misery all the while the BLS BS data prints are the propaganda covering up reality. Brilliant!

On to the lie - 

OK, I'll try to get this where you can understand it. We're breaking down and in a technical situation that should yield a major corrective. The problem is we're playing in a completely rigged market that can not fail or all their lies are exposed. They can not allow the markets to fail, but they can let them pull back enough to somewhat righten their listing ship. 

The market has only been this lopsided to the bulls once in history and that was back in 1998. They must have sellers, so they create fear of collapse and make very measured technical and controlled pullbacks to suck some shorts in for slaughter and to provide a catalyst (free of charge to them) for a market advance - rinse/repeat. 

We're in one of those measured pullback moments right now. We've had several recently. Can someone please tell me if taper is a good or bad thing? For the markets it is terrible, but for reality it is the necessary medicine to make things better. So they spin it in both directions. Confusion, their best tool.

Minis Daily - Major supports - blue, pink, red (line of death), pink (women and children first), yellow, blue (abandon ship). The red line of death is the one they MUST defend and will be my final target for most of not all pullbacks till it breaks, and when it does it is game on for the bears.

Minis 4hr - the green rising wedge - busted now for the second time. My first target blue LT resistance backtest that was support for the last fall has been met. There is a chance that there is a nasty little HnS setup here that targets the 50dma near 1745. The next logical stopping point would be a backtest of the busted upper pink channel resistance near 1760. If blue fails here, that is target number two. That would complete a possible head for another HnS with pink as the neckline and a RS to follow with a backtest and reestablishment of the blue upper LT resistance. My third target will be the red line of death that about perfectly correlated with the rising green wedge target line (dashed green) somewhere near 1730. This would be the absolute worse case scenario for now. If we get to that point I suspect they will raise QE to stop the fall. 

More to come below. Oh, and in the time it took me to write this post the national debt increased $10 million dollars.

Merry Christmas and happy holidays. 

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 12/11/13 SPX /ES

Since it is all about the Fed, I suggest you read The Ultimate Guide To December’s FOMC Meeting: Breaking Down The Participants.  You need to remain cognizant of the endless chatter of Fedspeak and try to see thru the lies all the while knowing that the last time they seriously considered tapering you know how the market reacted. 

The market's reaction is everything, cause technically there is very little room before critical support is met. Because of their feverish ramps they have left massive supportless holes below price all the while creating sensationally overbought conditions that are technically screaming for a major correction. 

Thrown into the mix is an administration that is way out of control and desperate to destroy the constitution and nation. This administration fully supports and condones the out of control deficit spending knowing it will bring the country to its demise. The latest and greatest is Obummer's hiring of John Podesta. To make it simple, this man believes in the power of the president and his use of the Executive Order to enforce his will over constitutional process. This should gove clear indication of where we're headed politically with out lame duck president. That my friends is horrifying.

Minis Daily - Yellow wedge overthrown by red wedge which briefly turned into the pink channel which all is being overthrown by the green wedge which has driven thru the upper blue long term market resistance diagonal. It's just nuts.

Minis Daily - Same chart drilled down to just the green wedge. 
So major support goes green with 20dma (1798) then blue (1778) then pink with the 50dma (1757) and finally the red diagonal of death near 1725 (which coincides with a green channel breakdown target line (green dashed).

Minis 30m - A closer look at the upper end of the green rising wedge. Red resistance at 1812 and green support at 1797. the round level will act as support as well.

Daily SPX - Black rising wedge overthrowing the blue rising wedge overthrowing the pink rising wedge, just nasty with all those negative divergences all over. 1424 should have been it technically. Everything since is Fed induced levitation. So by my calculations the SPX is 21% overvalued OVER where the top should have been.

I still think she's primed for some sort of tumble. May be we get a brief foreshadowing scare soon and rally till the fat man comes. I'll reiterate my fear of January and February.

More to come below.

Merry Christmas and happy holidays. 

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 12/10/13 SPX /ES

Taper this, taper that, blah, blah, blah; they are baffling you with BS folks. FOMC is a week from today and they all have their talking points they need to get out before the quiet period. Of course the BLS BS data manipulation is in full riot mode as they position the data points for maximum confusion and disparity. 

If the data all pointed one way then the direction would be clear. It would be a no brainer call, but that would be disastrous. They must have division and confusion. This way they can do WTF they want when and how and never be wrong. Simple! They print enough good data to give the illusion a recovery is happening, but on the other hand enough bad data where they must continue to support and ease. You should feel that you've been fed a line of shit a mile long at this time squared. 

Sorry, I'm not copping out, I'm just being a realist. Some people don't get it, thus I feel a need to say it over and over again. Maybe my best attribute is my ability to see thru all the BS, cut the crap and see things for what they are. Charts schmarts, fundamentals bundamentals, it's all a load of crap. The markets are 100% manipulated and controlled. You go ahead and spout all your data points and inventory numbers and whatever metrics you like, go ahead and analyze your little ass off, it is all a waste of time. 

Nothing is real anymore and they are so far down the rabbit hole that there is no turning back. We're now 100% dependent on the Fed and Treasury to print and buy in conjunction with the BLS BS to support what's left of our rotten economy.

Minis 60m - Top end of the green rising wedge. Yesterday I noted the resistance that would be provided by the red and gray diagonals and they did their job so far. Over the past few weeks you can clearly see how they have been in play.

Minis 4hr - Green wedge update - yesterday I lowered the lower support diagonal to pick up the lower low and create a new support. The old green support is still there, but is now dashed green. The key downside point is blue support near 1785, so we should not have to worry about that today.

Volatility is the name of the game. I've been talking about it for months now and told you it was coming. I've been right on many fronts, but the main point is that I have not called a top. I have not done this cause I am 100% committed to the Fed being the master of our universe and architect of the Matrix. Pay attention to the taper talk. That is all that moves the market today. Oh, and don't forget they can't let the markets fail or their illusion of a recovery fails with it.

More to come below.


Merry Christmas and happy holidays. 

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 12/09/13 SPX /ES

Let's keep this simple again today - 

First, they are still talking taper.

Second, Today's Only Event That Matters is the double $5bn POMO.

Third, I suggest you pay attention to Futures Fail To Levitate Overnight On Repeated Central-Planning Failures Around The Globe. 


It looks like they are in full Merry Christmas mode right now, but they are sailing in very troubled waters. I'm still looking down and think the markets are in trouble, but that does not mean they are finished with setting tops. It's a massive struggle for both sides here. Bout the only thing you can count on is that team manipulation still has the upper hand.

Minis 30m -Closing in on the Xmas low volume window but we still got the FOMC meeting to go which should keep some fear over the markets as taper talk continues. Have no fear till you get confirmation cause the pomo days are still upon us and they don't want to spoil the Xmas season for the elite. Minis have resistance from 1809 to 1812. We'll worry about support (what little there is) if needed below.

Merry Christmas and happy holidays. 

GL and GB!

Open Weekend Post 12/07/08/13

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge. 

Not much to say. Whatever they want will happen no matter the cost, time, situation, it does not matter. 

If you see it post it.

Good football all weekend. STB will be rooting for MO, MSU and for an FSU/AL nat champ game.

Merry Christmas, happy holidays and enjoy the weekend. 

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 12/06/13 SPX /ES

Payroll - schmayroll, there is a darn good reason STB pays little if any attention to this (and any other government produced) data, it's all a load of crap. It is the propaganda machine massaging numbers to make the financial system and economy appear solvent. It is nothing more than another manipulated data point in their game.

However, the number is another piece to the puzzle that you must use to play their game. Nothing happens anymore that is out of their control. Falsifying employment data in the Matrix keeps their fairytale world in balance. Do not get lost in the drama!

As STB has done for years now, as boring and dull as it may be, all I preach is follow the Fed. They can not ease. They can not let the markets fall. Their only hope now is the illusion that your retirement and savings are safe and growing. So they threaten taper, they have to, they bang their gongs and clang their symbols, they crate noise, they must or no one will be left selling. 

This brief respite caused a minor pullback of the best technical top I've ever witnessed. They pulled the minis back to the 1783 level to backtest the busted long term upper market resistance diagonal. They would have struggled technically to move the markets forward without this backtest. Well, I say that, it sounds good in a historical perspective, but in reality they will take the market where they want when they want. They still need sellers though, which they have to create at this point. Thus the taper fears. 

Minis 4hr - Let's preface this quickly - the rising yellow wedge (not pictured) was overthrown by the red wedge which was overthrown by the rising pink channel which in turn has been overthrown bu the rising green wedge all leaving a fantastic set of negative divergences below and creating a massively overbought situation that all started back at 1424. 


The rising green wedge.We've been on this for weeks now. Basic stuff. Now, several options face us here. One, they backtested busted blue upper resistance which clears the floor technically for a move higher. Two, they let it fall to the pink diagonal for a backtest, but if that happens I think the top is set. The red support is critical. If that goes everything goes with it and the top is set for sure. 

They could not even let the market pull off a 23% retracement here and that's just on the run up from October lows. The bull case - 1854 in February. The bear case - a HnS is forming herewith two possible necklines (blue and pink diagonals basically). We all know that the HnS is now a bullish formation for the most part as the RS ramp is a real bear crusher.

 
 Minis 60m - It is what it is. Taper OFF and kaboom! Thus STB takes this market one supportless segment at a time. You can not get too excited about downside movement yet. I was all over 1783 and that's all she gave us for now. I'm still leaning down however. I have to given the technical setup. This thing is set for a major move south at any moment. The Fed is truly walking a tightrope that is on an incline way above the gorge of doom.

I'll give targets and such below. It looks like the BS from the BLS has put out some fires for the Fed at this time. Maybe enough to keep things calm till the FOMC meeting. Taper talk will be back soon however, so be ready. They have to keep the bears in the game. 



Merry Christmas and happy holidays. 

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 12/05/13 SPX /ES

Not off to a good start today. Opened up ToS to find all my charts erased. Like all of them. This is more bad than good, but I'll deal with it.Then I got about half thru this AM's post and my computer locked up which did not save my work. Running in safe mode now after cleaning the whole system yesterday morning. STB maintaining proper attitude so far. Nothing thrown or broken at this time, but I will update you if I have some sort of breakdown. 

So, I'm off to get my computer straightened out first. Then I have to rebuild the minis chart. I'll be below eventually, just not sure when. 

Here is the basic SC Daily chart. Watch the 20 dma for now and the 1789 level. this is the area they have been fighting to maintain. My first target area has been met. Now the bears have to fight to get to my second level which is much more critical to bully and that's near 1755.

More to come below (eventually).

Merry Christmas and happy holidays. 

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 12/04/13 SPX /ES

Not much to say this morning. Kinda quiet. Some taper talk and such, the police state is in full swing and everyone is distracted by the short holiday season complete with Amazon drones.

Daily SPX - I'm gonna recreate this chart with just the three overthrows so you can see them better. The real top was at 1474. Everything above that is way out of bounds. The final rising black wedge overthrowing the rising blue wedge overthrowing the rising pink wedge ...well, you should get my point.

SPX and CPC - Well, so much for the bears. Another sign we're in a massive sell 'em zone and that the markets are ignoring natural forces. Note that new pink over/under thingy I added at the top. 1854 Jan 08?

RUT Daily - This is completely normal in a faltering global economy. Just what you should expect to see. 

Minis 5m - Closing in on 1783 blue long term resistance backtest. This is the number I've had as my "look out" since the rollover. Watch it closely. More to come below on the action around this point. 

 

More to come below. 

As for the season, please keep this in mind. 

Linus Van Pelt: "And there were in the same country shepherds abiding in the field, keeping watch over their flock by night. And lo, the angel of the Lord came upon them, and the glory of the Lord shone round about them: and they were sore afraid. And the angel said unto them, 'Fear not: for behold, I bring unto you good tidings of great joy, which shall be to all people. For unto you is born this day in the City of David a Savior, which is Christ the Lord. And this shall be a sign unto you; Ye shall find the babe wrapped in swaddling clothes, lying in a manger.' And suddenly there was with the angel a multitude of the heavenly host, praising God, and saying, 'Glory to God in the highest, and on earth peace, good will toward men.'"
[Linus picks up his blanket and walks back towards Charlie Brown]
Linus Van Pelt: That's what Christmas is all about, Charlie Brown.

Merry Christmas and happy holidays.

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 12/03/13 SPX /ES

Taper ON? LOL. They are trolling us again. Sure they have to, but they can't. They have installed the queen of easing to do their bidding. They are setting us up for a possible false flag crash that will generate enough fear to where they can round up another batch of shorts to slaughter and set up and increase in QE. They are running out of sellers and need to create a new batch.

If this is not the top (which I'm seriously mentally masturbating over right now) there is a chance they tank it to the 1630 area. Deep enough for real fear in the markets. Then they go completely irrational on easing. I really don't like that scenario all that much cause I firmly believe that if they let the 1750 area go it is all over. Alas tops are made of very volatile moves and gyrations of momo and mood. Remember the run up after the LEH incident? The bulltards are completely crazy and will gorge themselves to death. I believe they're so fat now they can't get out of bed.

Minis 30m - Yesterday STB spoke about the rolling out of the end of the green rising wedge, red support. 30m minis death cross and 1794. We take things step by step. No carts ahead of horses quite yet. 1784 is the next obvious point of support. This would be the backtest of the long term market resistance diagonal that is being overthrown at this time. This is a must technically before anything can happen to the upside for bully. I personally believe the honest potential for a real top occurred yesterday.

Let's go deep technical on gold! Well, there is not much there as with any collapse (manipulated or not), form can be fleeting. With gold here we have a potential falling green channel of a falling wedge finding support near the 38% retracement off the 2001 low. The $1,000 plateau is in sight, and if they can get it below there they will. They will declare gold dead, but it won't be. Who started to buy heavily in gold, as in big time in 2009 at the $950 to $1,500 levels? Russia and China that's who. They can't suppress it much more. Just ask the good folks in India right now about buying gold. Pay attention to what gold is selling on the street for not in a manipulated market.

What I have to say about gold is really simple, other than just buy physical, it is the most manipulated element on the planet. Every once here was created in space so there is a limited supply. Governments across the globe are doing everything they can to suppress the price and accumulate as much as they can. It's a 100% sham. When Gold Drops Below Cash Cost, Approaches Marginal Production Costs you have serious issues. Just diversify into physical (gold or silver). Pay cash so they can not trace your purchases. Get your money out of dollars and into alternative real assets.

Monthly - Once the rising channel broke support and it backtested it was all over. Now price has pulled back to the 38% retracement and appears to be trying a dead cat bounce here.

Weekly -

Daily - Watch that $1,180 level closely. Might just be a really good buying point there, if not right here.

More to come below.

Enjoy the holiday season.

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 2/02/13 SPX /ES

Ya think for the past year there has been a strong correlation between time and price movement?

SPX Daily - Blue and green horizontal boxes measure bottom to bottom. Yellow is low to high. Notice any similarities? Each colored box is the same length. So, I'd say for the past year we've had a very measured and uncanny market based on historical perspective. Almost like .....it was being manipulated. Of course at this time they are about to overshoot time and have blown out the average height measurement (noting the overthrow I've been telling you about for the past 6 weeks). On one daily chart I have counted this as the 13th negative divergence without a major correction.

SPX Weekly - I do not know how high they will take it, but it appears the market will top by September of next year. Preliminary TA target is for a bottom of 630 SPX in April of 2016. I do believe this is a VERY conservative target in price and time. As for price, I think a 3 handle or the complete obliteration of the markets as we know it is what I believe is coming. As for time, you know I believe we have still not seen true capitulation. When it goes, it is going to simply go. Everyone will want out at the same time, everyone. It is more realistic to think the market will bottom in 2015 if not 2014. The yellow boxes are all the room that's left. 

I hate to start the Xmas season with this, but you should hear it. Whether you like the Pope or not, whether this is the last pope or not, whether you think the pope is pure evil or not, his words over the weekend need to be heard and may just be a dire warning of what's coming sooner than later. From End times will bring greater persecution to Christians, Pope says

"Reflecting on the day's reading taken from the Gospel of Luke, in which Jesus speaks of the trials and tribulations that will precede the end times, the pontiff explained that when the Lord refers to this in another passage, “he tells us that it will be a desecration of the temple.”

It will be “a profanation of the faith, of the people,” he continued, and “it will be an abomination, it will be desolation and abomination.”

“What does this mean?” the Pope asked the Mass attendees, responding, “It will be like the triumph of the prince of this world: the defeat of God.”

“It seems at that final moment of calamity, it seems like he will take over this world, he will master of the world,” the pontiff observed, adding that in that time we will become aware this apparent victory over God would be more devastating than a great natural disaster."

So, maybe it is more important than ever, this season, to remember the real reason for the season.

"He puzzled and puzzed till his puzzler was sore. Then the Grinch thought of something he hadn't before. Maybe Christmas, he thought... doesn't come from a store. Maybe Christmas, perhaps... means a little bit more!"

More to come below.



Have a good holiday season.

GL and GB!