Monday, December 16, 2013

Morning Charts 12/16/13 SPX /ES

FOMC week. Oh joy! A week full of propaganda shills and more BS than you can fit inside a Christmas turkey. Be ready to deal with it. I honestly don't think the Fed can tip their hand on when they actually plan to taper. I think there is very little chance they will taper now. If they were to tell us they were going to taper in January or February, the reaction would be identical to tapering now. So, they give us virtually nothing to go on is what I'm thinking. This will salvage the market thru Xmas season and buy them a bit moar time. 

The bogus budget vote should happen this week as well. No comment here is really necessary as this, if it happens, is a meaningless act to give the world hope there is some sort of control over spending in DC when there isn't. 

STB will keep the commentary subdued till  the FOMC is complete. All we can do is follow their lead. Front-running them and being wrong has proven to be disastrous.

Minis 4hr - Oh happy day! I don't exactly get why the minis are up close to 10, but good for bully! I'm so happy for him. Wham, bam, thank you mam, STB targets 1 and 2 met and here we are reversing off busted pink channel resistance support. Good news for the bears is that they took back the blue long term market resistance diagonal. This means there is actually now a resistance point above price now. This also means that THE top could be set. At this point anything above 85 the bears need to start sweating, and anything above 91 the better get back in their caves.

Minis daily - The 50dma support was hit and, as usual, that's all they were willing to give. A meaningful retracement is impossible at this point. They will give you the 23% retracement and the 50dma, but they are apparently not willing to give any more than that. Another negative for bully is they lost the broad range beige support. While they may pitch taper as a positive, it isn't. Don't be fooled. 

Daily SPX - Cash did not even bother to sniff the 50dma. All you got here was a backtest of busted blue rising wedge resistance. The rising black wedge did lose support. Now what STB will be looking for is possibly a backtest of the black support and a full blown reversal off that point. Maybe a little double top action to set up the final blow? That would be nice.

And for your Xmas moment of the day -

Ralphie: Oooh fuuudge!
Ralphie as Adult: [narrating] Only I didn't say "Fudge." I said THE word, the big one, the queen-mother of dirty words, the "F-dash-dash-dash" word!
Mr. Parker: [stunned] *What* did you say?
Ralphie: Uh, um...
Mr. Parker: That's... what I thought you said. Get in the car. Go on!
Ralphie as Adult: [narrating] It was all over - I was dead. What would it be? The guillotine? Hanging? The chair? The rack? The Chinese water torture? Hmmph. Mere child's play compared to what surely awaited me.

I suspect very low volume and lot's of really positive spin this week. 

More to come below. 

Merry Christmas and happy holidays.

GL and GB!

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