Friday, December 6, 2013

Morning Charts 12/06/13 SPX /ES

Payroll - schmayroll, there is a darn good reason STB pays little if any attention to this (and any other government produced) data, it's all a load of crap. It is the propaganda machine massaging numbers to make the financial system and economy appear solvent. It is nothing more than another manipulated data point in their game.

However, the number is another piece to the puzzle that you must use to play their game. Nothing happens anymore that is out of their control. Falsifying employment data in the Matrix keeps their fairytale world in balance. Do not get lost in the drama!

As STB has done for years now, as boring and dull as it may be, all I preach is follow the Fed. They can not ease. They can not let the markets fall. Their only hope now is the illusion that your retirement and savings are safe and growing. So they threaten taper, they have to, they bang their gongs and clang their symbols, they crate noise, they must or no one will be left selling. 

This brief respite caused a minor pullback of the best technical top I've ever witnessed. They pulled the minis back to the 1783 level to backtest the busted long term upper market resistance diagonal. They would have struggled technically to move the markets forward without this backtest. Well, I say that, it sounds good in a historical perspective, but in reality they will take the market where they want when they want. They still need sellers though, which they have to create at this point. Thus the taper fears. 

Minis 4hr - Let's preface this quickly - the rising yellow wedge (not pictured) was overthrown by the red wedge which was overthrown by the rising pink channel which in turn has been overthrown bu the rising green wedge all leaving a fantastic set of negative divergences below and creating a massively overbought situation that all started back at 1424. 

The rising green wedge.We've been on this for weeks now. Basic stuff. Now, several options face us here. One, they backtested busted blue upper resistance which clears the floor technically for a move higher. Two, they let it fall to the pink diagonal for a backtest, but if that happens I think the top is set. The red support is critical. If that goes everything goes with it and the top is set for sure. 

They could not even let the market pull off a 23% retracement here and that's just on the run up from October lows. The bull case - 1854 in February. The bear case - a HnS is forming herewith two possible necklines (blue and pink diagonals basically). We all know that the HnS is now a bullish formation for the most part as the RS ramp is a real bear crusher.

 Minis 60m - It is what it is. Taper OFF and kaboom! Thus STB takes this market one supportless segment at a time. You can not get too excited about downside movement yet. I was all over 1783 and that's all she gave us for now. I'm still leaning down however. I have to given the technical setup. This thing is set for a major move south at any moment. The Fed is truly walking a tightrope that is on an incline way above the gorge of doom.

I'll give targets and such below. It looks like the BS from the BLS has put out some fires for the Fed at this time. Maybe enough to keep things calm till the FOMC meeting. Taper talk will be back soon however, so be ready. They have to keep the bears in the game. 

Merry Christmas and happy holidays. 

GL and GB!

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