Thursday, December 12, 2013

Morning Charts 12/12/13 SPX /ES

Try this number on for size, $17,225,080,300,000. At the time I typed this (9:00 est) that was our national debt according to Now try this number on for size, $28,000,000,000. That is how much the budget deal cuts the national debt. That is a .0016% deficit reduction. I guess it is really not a big deal, I mean our unfunded liabilities as a nation are only $126,938,170,000,000.

According to Ryan there is zero chance of cutting meaningful spending under this administration. So we're gonna wait out the debt game another couple of years now? And we laugh about QE and kicking the can. This is the ultimate #FAIL.

I guess when you have a lame duck, narcissistic, selfie loving potus that has proven his willingness in the last shutdown to basically piss on the nation and will use the DHS, NSA and IRS without regard to "motivate" congress, that is the type of deals you get. No wonder congress has an all time low approval rating. They worked well less than half the year this year. WTF show up to work when a dictator is in charge, while you can still make millions on insider information while being legally able to spread any propaganda you like?

So, we've totally thrown in the towel at this point. Debt is out of control, deficit spending is out of control, monetization of debt is out of control, easing is keeping the markets afloat hiding the true misery all the while the BLS BS data prints are the propaganda covering up reality. Brilliant!

On to the lie - 

OK, I'll try to get this where you can understand it. We're breaking down and in a technical situation that should yield a major corrective. The problem is we're playing in a completely rigged market that can not fail or all their lies are exposed. They can not allow the markets to fail, but they can let them pull back enough to somewhat righten their listing ship. 

The market has only been this lopsided to the bulls once in history and that was back in 1998. They must have sellers, so they create fear of collapse and make very measured technical and controlled pullbacks to suck some shorts in for slaughter and to provide a catalyst (free of charge to them) for a market advance - rinse/repeat. 

We're in one of those measured pullback moments right now. We've had several recently. Can someone please tell me if taper is a good or bad thing? For the markets it is terrible, but for reality it is the necessary medicine to make things better. So they spin it in both directions. Confusion, their best tool.

Minis Daily - Major supports - blue, pink, red (line of death), pink (women and children first), yellow, blue (abandon ship). The red line of death is the one they MUST defend and will be my final target for most of not all pullbacks till it breaks, and when it does it is game on for the bears.

Minis 4hr - the green rising wedge - busted now for the second time. My first target blue LT resistance backtest that was support for the last fall has been met. There is a chance that there is a nasty little HnS setup here that targets the 50dma near 1745. The next logical stopping point would be a backtest of the busted upper pink channel resistance near 1760. If blue fails here, that is target number two. That would complete a possible head for another HnS with pink as the neckline and a RS to follow with a backtest and reestablishment of the blue upper LT resistance. My third target will be the red line of death that about perfectly correlated with the rising green wedge target line (dashed green) somewhere near 1730. This would be the absolute worse case scenario for now. If we get to that point I suspect they will raise QE to stop the fall. 

More to come below. Oh, and in the time it took me to write this post the national debt increased $10 million dollars.

Merry Christmas and happy holidays. 

GL and GB!

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