It may come down to how fast they can run the presses vs the current margin at an all time high again. The margin 3 day cycle and closness of number of stop losses people may have at this level would be needed to bring the FEAR in. Bears may loose again but they would have to dance a big one. I'll put a main desider on the amount of margin. People knowing they get a call tonight may not want to hold over the weekend. Scary shit, I've been there: Once covered ones that got hurt are shy to jump back in. ( dave
Great point Dave, as I have been there as well. A swift fall could put a bunch of people in really bad positions. IMO, when the flood gates open this time, the water runs out faster than before. The sheeple will remember the last fall and will not want to participate again.
I'm grinding this one out right now. My long stops are all super narrow (of the few longs I have left). A bunch will get triggered at the open and the rest with any significant fall. I will not reenter long and will most likely begin experimenting with some short positions on the first corrective of this fall.
Hello Shanky Have a great weekend too!!! My 2 cents. Last update spx have four charts. 2 charts weekly - possible bearish divergence RSI 1 chart daily - Mybe one more high - possible pattern RSI - "M" - Who many tops they made that. 1 chart hourly cash - Bear need to break the channel Sorry for the link but my last update have only charts. I follow you every days great analysis, thanks. http://followmarketrend.blogspot.com/2009/10/spx-update-weeklydailyhourly.html
It may come down to how fast they can run the presses vs the current margin at an all time high again. The margin 3 day cycle and closness of number of stop losses people may have at this level would be needed to bring the FEAR in. Bears may loose again but they would have to dance a big one. I'll put a main desider on the amount of margin. People knowing they get a call tonight may not want to hold over the weekend. Scary shit, I've been there: Once covered ones that got hurt are shy to jump back in. ( dave
ReplyDeleteGreat point Dave, as I have been there as well. A swift fall could put a bunch of people in really bad positions. IMO, when the flood gates open this time, the water runs out faster than before. The sheeple will remember the last fall and will not want to participate again.
ReplyDeleteI'm grinding this one out right now. My long stops are all super narrow (of the few longs I have left). A bunch will get triggered at the open and the rest with any significant fall. I will not reenter long and will most likely begin experimenting with some short positions on the first corrective of this fall.
shanky:
ReplyDeleteCheck out the recent pic at www.evilspeculator.com It will brighten your day. dave
Hello Shanky
ReplyDeleteHave a great weekend too!!!
My 2 cents.
Last update spx have four charts.
2 charts weekly - possible bearish divergence RSI
1 chart daily - Mybe one more high - possible pattern RSI - "M" - Who many tops they made that.
1 chart hourly cash - Bear need to break the channel
Sorry for the link but my last update have only charts.
I follow you every days great analysis, thanks.
http://followmarketrend.blogspot.com/2009/10/spx-update-weeklydailyhourly.html
i always enjoy your view shanky. thanks for the charts and explanations. deadhead
ReplyDelete