Friday, October 9, 2009

Morning Post

Holiday Friday and Monday, so expect low volume (well, lower volume I should say).

I'm beginning to liken this to the party the Jews threw (as depicted in the movie) at the bottom of the mount while Moses went to pick up the Ten Commandments. We are worshiping false idols, having a rocking good time and really don't give a shit about anything. Well, guess what? Moses is about to come down from the mount and is gonna lay down the law and we'll be freaking lucky is we don't have to wonder for 40 more years in the desert before reaching our promised land. (Konichiwa!)

SPX daily indicator chart - Indicators look bullish but weak with some room to run.

SPX 60m chart - SPX clearly about to backtest the lower wedge line (or has depending on where you draw it). Indicators are topped but can embed. What I want you to see here is the lower red trendline. This is what I have been warning the bears about. The possibility that the P2 lower bear market trendline has simply been adjusted down, thus allowing for more upside later this year.

SPX weekly indicator chart - WARNING - bears may want to heed that big ass bullish candle SPX posted this week and the fact that most indicators are bullish or not confirming a rollover just yet. This is the chart that has kept me a bull all along. See yellow boxes? They show how much more they can run if they like. That long white candle may get it's doji counterpart next week for the reversal.

/ES 15m - Here is a drill down of the yellow rising wedge (wave 5 or part of wave 5 of C of P2 OR wave 2 of 1 of 1 of 3). You can see price sitting on support line right now.

/ES 60m - You can see the pink box that is the dreamer's inflection point where several lines converge at a double top. The dark blue line is the upper P2 bull market trendline. The next pink box will be where the upper pink wedge line meets the lower P2 support line near 1028 next week anticipating the backtest of the wedge or further breakdown.

SPX Support, Resistance, Gaps and Fibs - There are no upper fibs to speak of except the 1120 fib for the 50% retracement of the total fall. Lower fibs are 1051, 1045 and 1039. Resistance at 1072 and 1080. Support at 1065, 1052 and 1042. Gaps below around 1058 and 1041. More support will be provided by the daily lower BB at 1029 and the daily 50ma at 1027.

The daily indicators are still bullish and until they turn I'll remain bullish. The 60m indicators are giving sell signals and flashing red, but the dailys usually rule. Two options A) it rolls over here and the dailys whipsaw and turn south or B) there is a slight pullback and the 60m embed. That 1029 to 1020 range is gonna be a tough nut to crack. Good thing we have some possible impulsive 3 waves on deck.

GS earnings scare the hell out of me (as a bear) next week. One thing good that may come out of it (other than a totally pissed off rant out of me) is that they may further enrage the public and further damage sentiment. On the other hand, who goives a shit as long as we all are making money, right? You gotta ask yourself where our priorities are. Someone will have to pay the piper sooner than later.

I'll do a post later today to let you know if I take any positions ahead of the weekend. I hate swing trades, but if they are set up properly and protected they are worth the gamble IMO.

Pissani is a total moron.

A quick note about how I do these posts. After dropping off the kids I get here about 8:15. I screw around and go check out the hot chicks and then well motivated I get to work. I put an initial post together and post it. It has the basics. I then edit and add for about 30 minutes to get it right and try to have the final post done by 9:05 to 9:15. Since not checking out the hot chicks is not an option, that is as early as I can get 'er dun.

GL trading and have a great weekend.


  1. wow... going biblical on our bottoms..... or should I say tops.... lol...... good morning mr.shanky

  2. Thanks - always look forward to your morning post!

  3. LT - You are the best!

    Ferris - you just stay safe. Bad question and I know you won't answer, but any chance of a coup? LOL, just kidding.

  4. Possible...1-2% chance?? Just a guess. The dudes I work with are the ones who really understand what it means to defend the Constitution against all enemies, foreign and domestic. More likely scenario is state/regions secession IMHO. Appreciate your fly safe request!


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