Tuesday, October 6, 2009
Nut Cuttin Time Soon?
After this period of brief consolidation that is about to happen (so says my crystal ball) it either breaks out or down. This is THE moment IMO. Looks like the 60m indicators are topped on this chart, but the dailys are strong like bull on SPX. It is gonna take one heck of a whipsaw to turn down it here. The 61.8 fib of the fall has been nearly perfectly retraced. Upper BB on the dailys is 1078.
If this is wave 5 of C of P2 I would guess that this is a good place for 1 of 5 to top. I will be looking to get long at the bottom of 2 of 5 for 3 up (or all the way to the top depending on form).
If this is about to be the top of wave 5 of 1 of 1 of P3, I will be looking to get long at the bottom of 1 for 2 up.
As for the bottom - See the lower blue trendline? That is the P2 (bull market) lower trendline. It has never been in danger. If the market should pullback, keep an eye on that point for a reversal (if it gets to it).
See the confusion that lies in the overlap of the counts here? Either way downside should be limited from here and the odds of more upside are prevailing. Yet, this is NOT the entry point.
The MOST CONFUSING POINT WILL BE at the end of either the ABC of the wave 2 corrective of wave 5 up of C of P2 OR the end of wave 3 of 5 down of 1 of 1 of P3. That point will be the line in the sand. (where the red dashed lines end in the chart below) It either breaks up or down at that point. 1042 to 1038 on SPX near the GAP and the 38% fib.
Here is a raw chart depicting the EWT counts that are in play right now.