Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Morning Post - Wedge Cracked.

I am struggling with calling downside. I did get a higher high yesterday on the /ES, so my top on 10/12 has a chance to work in a couple of places. You all know me, Mr. Manipulation, and my feelings towards this market being rigged as all hell. On the cautious side I'm holding out for one more tiny pop. I did nibble on some SRS yesterday, so I am short. The 60m chart below is a good one. The daily indicators appear to be tiring, but have some room to run barring a quick turn. The dailys dominate my trading and where they go I follow. I'd love a turn here as that would set divergences in the weekly indicators.

See Call Trading Rises on Brokerage Firm Ahead of Earnings to understand my confusion on JPM and the base of my cautious stance.

My lady Meredith downgrades GS.

I'm gonna do a VIX post in a few minutes.

/ES 30m Chart below - If you need to familiarize yourself with a larger image of this charts scroll down. This is a zoom of where the top end of the rising yellow wedge (wave 5 of C of P2 (is what I am calling it). Red line was the last high at 1075. Blue line is the top trendline of the rising wedge (P2). Notice the rising wedge is breaking down.

/ES daily - What you can see on this chart is the upper bear market trendline (white) for the whole damn fall is at about 1095. The Upper P2 line and the bear market top line intersect on 10/26 at 1088. That could be interesting. Those inflection points work great sometimes. The pink line is the 1109 gap. So that is in the hood as well.

SPX 60m - Can you say backtest, divergences and sell signals all over the place? Why do I have an issue with this chart? See that period from mid July to mid August? 60m indicators can burn your ass.

SPX Daily chart - There is still a little room to run. RSI is weakening.

EARNINGS CALENDAR HERE, I highly suggest you know what is coming out and when.

NOTE: If (as CNBS is discussing) revenue actually matters as JNJ is showing, we may have topped indeed. This means falsified BS hope and pray rally has ended. Better numbers on lower revs is not good (esp like 4 qtrs in a row).

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