Friday, October 2, 2009

Morning Post - My /ES Channel Cracked

I'm gonna smoke some green shoots this weekend and celebrate! It is possible that this market is about to puke all over its self. I'm talking sloppy college drunk puke. When CIT goes down, you can kiss this BS recovery good bye. It is getting ready to get really ugly. Surprise, job losses tank. Freaking minor hiccup some meat head on CNBS says. Kiss my ass, minor hiccup losing 260k jobs. Who the hell are the assholes on CNBS. These morons get paid gazillions to manage billions and they can spew this shit on a major network and get a way with it? Pisani is the only one with a set of balls and a brain. Turn on Bloomberg radio please. Tom Keene on Bloomberg Surveillance might be the best show on the planet.

Look, the permabears have been telling you all along that this recovery is bullshit manipulation that is being chaired by the administration, run by the fed and promoted by the major media. We are screwed and you have been lied to by EVERYONE. I'm not gonna harp more on this now, but I will add that there will be a second stimulus and rampant inflation in the future. Talks about the Fed raising rates to control inflation, friggin hogwash. P3 is apparently technically here.

SPX daily chart - RSI taking out 50 and other trendlines on the indicators breaking down. Notice the blue box support area.

Here are the support points -

1025 - 61.8% fib of the last run
1020 - 50ma
1017 - Gap
1011 - Lower BB
999 - 38% fib of the whole run from 667
991 - last major low
974 - 50% fib of the whole run from 667
949 - 61.8% fib of the whole run from 667

SPX weekly chart - Just watch RSI. This is MY key for the beginning of P3 (or the big fall or the sign that the market has topped). Indicators are just nasty (and I ain't talking Janet Jackson nasty).

NOW, WHAT I HAVE WANTED ALL ALONG is for an RSI divergence to price. This is the near perfect set up. RSI bounces here and market gets a good pop and then the fall can begin. This is my pipe dream and what I have been begging for all along. As I have been saying I am short (SDS, EEV and UUP at this time) and will be playing this as if the top is in and this is P3, but I am STILL willing to consider this possibility (even if P3 is technically upon us. I am stubborn as hell.

It will be time soon to talk about corrective bounces. LOL, that sounds funny.

/ES - The e-minis are finally approaching their lower P2 (the rising wedge or the rally off if the 667 low) lower trendline which sits near 1005. 970 to 945 is the retracement zone. the 38% is 970. 869 to 820 looks great right now IMO.

GL and have a great weekend.


  1. BRILLIANT!! And pass the green shoots!

  2. Sweet!! Thanks Shanky for the heads up on SDS , EEV and UUP. Got some SDS myself!


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