Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Morning Post - P2 Still Alive?

My 10/12 top call is apparently still alive! It's ALIVE!

P2 or P3, that is the question. I bit yesterday on emotion, but have come back to my senses. P3 will be here soon (if it is not already). I am reverting (after a 24 hour respite) back to the thought process that they MUST fight for the market, cause it is all they have left between them and anarchy. They will continue to manipulate and fondle this market anyway they please (must be nice!). This keeps P2 alive. The serious amount of insider selling going on should give you a clue the top is near. The devaluation of the dollar, the BLS BS numbers, monetization, accounting fraud and lies will continue till the end. Then you better be in cash well under the FDIC limits (LOL, that's funny) with canned food and some extra gas and bullets at the house (that was not a joke). For those that believe recovery or fundamentals have anything to do with this rally need to have their heads examined.

(The chart above has P2 labels on it)

Here is what you got - The Pink falling wedge would be a P3 scenario and the bear market has begun OR the green triangle has had a "throw under" of the lower trendline and is about to bust up and out and will continue the P2 bull run.

P2 scenario - Green Triangle - If it breaks out the target is near 1100 as the triangle is worth near 43 points. The ABC wave 4 corrective is completed, so this will now be wave 5, the final wave up of the bull market (corrective wave) P2. If wave 5=1 (in length) then the target for the top of P2 would be 1164 (1115 is the .618 number) unless 5 truncates of course (and 1121 on 10/12 has been my documented call for months).

P3 scenario - Pink Falling Wedge - Some are calling the ABC move down a 123, where the first three waves of the bear market are now in place and this is a 4 up. If 4 ends near the upper wedge trendline and wave 1 was worth 40 points, then you'll be looking at a double bottom to end wave 1 of 1 of 3. The 2 corrective can take it all the way back to 1074, so no real reason for the bears to get all geeked up just yet.

The top of 5 of 1 or the top of 2 of 3 will be the last chance to get out of longs for a long time IMHO. Bottom line is you can expect consolidation in the 991 to 1100 range for a week or two given either scenario.

SPX Daily Chart - Price stopped and reversed nicely at the support area. The 61.8% fib, 50ma and lower BB acted like the trampoline they have become. What happens at the upper red trendline is of great concern. RSI has turned up. MACD histogram has turned up. S Sto appears to be bottoming. It does not look good for the bears at all.

I am all cash right now looking for confirmation of P2 or P3.

Note: I had the H&S on GLD target at 1032.

GL Trading!


  1. I couldn't help but laugh when I saw Daneric's blog yesterday with the title, "Everything On The Brink of Something".

    Yeah, it sounds like he and his "followers" are on the "Brink of Bankruptcy" given how utterly WRONG this kid has been over the past couple of months!


  2. It is a tough game and IMO DE does a great job with EWT. The problem is not with DE, but with the theory. It has it's place in the tool box, but not as a primary tool. That is the EWTers downfall IMHO.


Keep it civil and respectful to others.