Thursday, October 29, 2009

Morning Post

Be ready. It is coming. The fall will be severe and quicker than most think. Remember I am calling for two market closures in P3. Let's get this top out of the way first.

I have to hang on to the fact that this still may be P2 (are there any 4 of P1ers still out there LOL). I am 75% that the top is in and the count is for P3, but I'm still not going to put anything past the manipulators. So my primary count is somewhere in 1 of P3. I have been calling for a truncated 5th wave, so the count may get very difficult up here. This next move up may be 1 of 5 and not 2 of 1 of 3. Do you remember me discussing the confusion that would arise at this point?

Its POMO day! Employment better (cough - ho-hum another 500k people on the street), GDP not near what GS said (cough, cough), XOM not all that and a bag of chips.

EUR/USD spiked big on the GDP news.

EUR/JPY Spiked on the news.

DXY tanked on the news.

/ES broke the upper trendline on the news and are 9 points above the 1037 low set yesterday.

SPX 60m - No divergence on RSI (see pink lines). Smoked the lower wedgeline and pegged the trendline. It was when it had the momo to get thru the seconf support (barely) that I became totally surprised. I went long at that trendline, and I got stopped out at BE. I was calling for 1051 SPX low with first alt of lower BB and then the 38% retracement for alt 3. The strength of that fall was a sign of things to come.

SPX Daily - No buy signal yet. S Sto just ain't there. It is close. While my entry may prove to have been good enough yesterday, I lost patience at the 1051 point and went for the "perfect call" - lol what a dumb ass I can be sometimes - no harm no foul as I got stopped out at BE.

/ES daily - they finally made their lower trendline. I said at K's yesterday I would get long when the RSI on the daily /ES turned (look at the last two cases). So, I'll be long again sometime today. Note - I would be BE on my entry from 1047 yesterday right now.

How close did we come to total disaster yesterday. See my Turn or Bust post below. One day not to long from now that chart will not bounce and when they let go so will the market. This will occur in 3 of 1 of P3. That is when we will know for sure that trouble is here to stay.

As for today. No divergences yet on the 60m RSI nor do the indicators on the daily say buy yet. I expect this to reverse today but more downside is still possible. The fall is now nearing the upper range of average length, duration is about right, lower trendline support, retracements are satisfied, all that and the trend is for bottoms to take 2 to three days, so I say be patient and look for the turn soon.

How big a pop? Tough call I have not drawn a fib for it yet (maybe I should now). The form of this pop - if it is a 5 were still in P2. If it is a 3 then this is P3. Since I am expecting a truncated 5 of C and since this could be a 2, then I'm not expecting new highs and it may be muted.

GL today.


  1. I could be persuaded to believe a four of one, I'm not convinced of anything 100%.... and you better check that cough, could be something, could be nothing..... lol....

  2. Shanky:

    What happens this weekend in Jax? I say the Dawgs keep it closer than the experts think, but lose in an excruciatingly painful fashion.

    Herschel Talker

  3. LT - I'll be back at K's soon. Gotta get some work done.

    HT - Got to spend an evening with Coach Dooley and Baaaabra last week here in Columbus. Great people. He would not comment on current conditions in Athens.

    IMHO - I think we gotta chance. A real one. I don't think FL is that explosive. We've had an extra week to prepare. We have the talent and speed. If we can make some plays and not get screwed by the refs we'll at least cover the spread if not win outright.

    THE BAD NEWS - If we win coaches (coordinators) get to stay another year.

    Your summary may be right. Say we're leading late and they get the drive to win.

    One thing is for sure. Daddy will be hammered out with the kids trick or treating after the game. LOL


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