Monday, October 5, 2009

Morning Post

I believe that it is pretty clear the top is in and that the markets have begun "The Slide". Now it will be important to pay close attention to the FORM OF THE FALL. Speaking of form, this is either 4 of 1 of 3 or still 3 of 1 of 3 which jives with everyone else. 1040 is now the key upper resistance number for SPX. I believe any corrections will be minor and brief in this first wave. Wave 2 of 1 of 3 will be stronger and your last chance to exit long positions for some time.

My preliminary target for the end of 1 of 3 is simple - the 991 low. If 4 of 1 rallies to 1036 then for 5=1 999 is the number. If 5 truncates the 1000 level should do just fine.

I'm still holding on to P2, but have made it an alternate count. The announcement of a possible second stimulus (duh, who saw that one coming?) will give them more funds to funnel into equities and extend the rally. IMO, if the funds are used in the same manner, it will end the USA as we know it forever. If they actually use it to benefit us and not the financial institutions, there is a chance it actually helps.

SPX 60m chart -

SPX daily chart - SPX has completed and closed right on the 61.8% fib of the rise off of 991. The set up is just right for a bounce and then something big to happen to set up a 3rd wave to drive it thru all of the support from 1020 to 1000.

/ES 60m - From the top at 1075 you can clearly see the first three waves down. What we are waiting on now is for wave one to take form. Till then we will have to use the fibs and traditional support and resistance lines to guide us. 1040 resistance is in place till wave 1 is complete.

/ES 5m - What you need to know about this chart is that wave 3 of 1 most likely ended over the weekend. The /ES is actually up 12 points off of the lows set over the weekend.

Should be an overall flat up week I'm guessing as 1 of 1 ends and 2 of 1 plays out.

GL Trading.

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