Thursday, October 22, 2009

Morning Post

On the e-minis we have set a lower high and a lower low. This differs from most of the indexes that set higher highs yesterday. 531,000 (+11,000) in unemployment claims. LOL, "earnings being overshadowed by data" Cuntonia says on CNBS. When will these people get it. I'm not sure how they can lie to us morning after morning with a straight face. Pissani reminds me of the kid you always wanted to beat up in school for being such the goober. What a dork.

As for a count, who the heck knows? I think we ended a three and are beginning 4 down now, but that could possibly be only 4 of 3 and not 4 of C. I will assume that this is 4 of C down for now and project a truncated fifth wave, thus the top could be in. What can screw up that count? You know who, the manipulators. I have ridden them all the way up and I am very skeptical going against them. So there could be more upside and it will be generated thru stimulus or some false data points that are a load of crap. Could that have been the top? Yes it could have been.

So lets look at where we are -

/ES 60m - This chart is an absolute mess. Sorry, but what happens at tops or major transitions is everything gets lost for a few weeks while new patters and trends develop. That is where I think we are right now. A lower high and lower low are for sure. Gap support (Gray rectangle) from 1073 to 1069 held the fall yesterday almost perfectly. The large yellow wedge has broken down and had a back test. Fib targets for the e-minis are 1055 to 1044 (yellow box). The wedge target is the red line near 1027. the lower blue line is the lower P2 trendline. Note that the fall yesterday pulled the e-minis back thru the upper bear market trendline (gray) and the upper P2 trendline like a knife thru butter. I thought there would have been more resistance.

SPX 60m - See the black boxes? These falls have happened a bunch on this run up, so this one may not be a reason to get to excited. It must develop into something more. You can see the fibs on the chart, so I am not going to regurgitate them here. You can see the divergences in the indicators, but what I want you to look at is CCI. I "Shankified" it to 200 and have found something that gives a more reliable sell signal.

SPX daily - The stockcharts viewers saw this chart the past few days and it has done me well. The false sell two days ago, the average 6 day topping trend and the wait for POMO to clear and get short yesterday afternoon call was pretty sporty. (Note the bottoms are trending to be only 2 to three days.) Further downside is expected (unless they juice the dollar). Now PAY ATTENTION here, the only thing that worries me about the follow thru on the downside here are the pink trendline on RSI and the red trendline under MACD. If they hold, a small pop (possibly a 2nd wave) we get. The interaction with these trendlines will be key for the next couple of days. MASSIVE SUPPORT IN THE BLUE BOX.

Watch the fibs, trendlines and gaps on the way down. My charts update real time on stockcharts and I usually and updating them throughout the day. If the fall persists I'll do a more detailed post. I see no reason why this fall does not make it to the prescribed retracement areas.

I added a video - look to the right. Thanks to PM on ZH for turning me on to it. Jump You Fuckers is the title and I really like it.

GL trading and thanks for the views.


  1. hi shanky

    looking at ung daily, is that an ending diagonal that is ready to break out possibly, volume has been low lately and bbands are tight


  2. Mike - I'll look at it. Just finished the post here.

  3. Boy, is anyone as utterly surprised that they have us up 9 S&P points today....does this mean 1126-1150 is almost certain?



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