Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Let's Talk About The Fall And A RANT

Little stunned at the precipitous drop this afternoon. Can't say we did not see it coming. See my post from this morning or read any of my charts. The head fake yesterday may have been a early POMO ramp before the POMO ramp today. Either way I said yesterday to wait till this afternoon and then short. Yea me!

Was that "the" top? Who the hell knows? One more POMO day next week, but with only $1.6bn left in the coffers I would assume it will be meaningless (and I speculate you will hear rumblings about additional stimulus picking up really soon - whether we have the money or not). I doubt the top is in, but at this point every top could be "the" top. In the Morning Post I questioned whether I should have called a top yesterday. Boy the emails I got were funny. Who's laughing now? Plus, I did not call it. I'll not speculate on WHY the fall happened here, but it WAS plain as day technically.

What was not surprising either (to me) was the pace of the drop. Listen, you don't come here cause I've got big 'ol knockers like Michelle 600CC's or cause I am some brilliant MIT technician, you come, well, I'm not really sure why you do, but you do, so don't stop. I make sense to a lot of people, I keep it relatively simple, I apply some long forgotten techniques involving common sense and I get it right more often than not.

That said, let's talk about this top and the fall to come. First the fall. I have speculated that the fall will be really violent. You see we all have the mental capacity to remember 2008 (well, all of us but maybe the administration and 95% of our elected representatives). A good portion of us are not stupid (and even the stupid ones in this case) and will not want to experience the pain observed in the recent past. So, that means MASS EXODUS in a really short period of time. It won't happen immediately.

Using the Elliott Wave theory as a description. Wave 1 will be bad but it won't scare the shit out of everyone, just the ones with real smarts. Then you get the wave two up where the real dumb shits buy in looking for the big money (cause they know what the fuck they are doing) cause the market will never top. This wave includes all the bulltards that keep bashing the blogs thinking their shit don't stink. The top of two will be the last spot to exit longs (for many years IMHO) Ok, now the third wave down. Wave one of three will get EVERYONE'S attention (but the bulltards of course). If you are not out by now, you are an idiot. Wave three of three will be the killer, and I am anticipating TWO market closures and another money market run during this wave. No joking around. After that no one will give a shit about wave 4 and 5 cause it may not matter at that point. I'll do a chart and show the form of the impending fall, but till then imagine a lightning strike digging into the ground.

I have no targets cause I have not seen the fall yet, but I fully expect new lows to be set. I have no time frame for the fall, but I have introduced the word Konichiwa into my vocabulary (and not as some cute, cool dude, trendy BS thingy). I also anticipate those using EWT to time the falls the best. Yes, I said it. Yes, they totally sucked ass on the way up, but (trust me) they will be your best friend when the fall is on. I have preached all along about the FORM OF THE FALL. Always applying classic TA first and then sprinkling in some EWT you will get some really well timed calls on sell/buy points.

I will continue to call the market based mainly on the daily charts and will buy/sell and kick ass all the way down. Remember the 2x and 3x ETFs are meant to be traded, not held. As for the market now, remember the days of the 300pt 3:00 ramps? They will be back soon, just this time there will not be a recovery.


Remember this, those lying ass, cheating, stealing, money hungry, greedy mother fuckers have already stolen almost everything you have. This is a fucking battle between the elites and the rest of us. These assholes DON'T GIVE A SHIT ABOUT YOU! Power, greed and who dies with the most fucking toys is all that matters. Fuck your house, your car, your kids, fuck everything in the pursuit of power and greed. That is what you are dealing with.

Remember P3 above? Well at that point we'll be the most pissed off populace on the planet. Cause I am sure Rham and his crew are eavesdropping in on my posts (screw you government worms - I hope you realize who the fuck you work for) I'm gonna stop short of making any prognostications on how bad it will get, but I will say this, they are limiting gun sales and ammunition purchases for a reason.

State cessation? Yeah, I said it, and my happy little ass will be the first one to pack up the truck and move there. They discussed it last year and next year you may actually get a vote on it. This country is so screwed! Hell, the whole world is fucked. There is no return from rampant greed that has built a $450 PLUS trillion dollar derivatives market that is out of fucking control. Thanks Mr. Clinton, Greenspan, Summers and all the other representatives that forgot regulation in the name of profit. Screw you!

Don't forget fucking Cap and Tax. These assholes think they own the water that falls out of the sky and the rays that come from the sun. What a crock of shit. Cause some dip shit congressman was bought 20 hookers and taken to wherever buy a bunch of slick lobbyists and he now feels that he needs to put these "special interests" ahead of what is right for his constituents? Screw you! Just one bill won't hurt. Well in the US there are 100 senators and 435 members of the House of Representatives. That is a lot of freaking favors. I'm not going into health care. I'll blow a gasket.

Over the edge? Shanky, you're nuts? Nope, you see they are talking ACTIVELY about new currencies and the plummeting dollar. WTF sheeple? The fucking dollar. The currency that has ruled the world for eons is going bye bye. The end of this country is just around the corner. (The following may be a bit extreme) A new SOCIALIST state is most likely being planned. Hell, they have to have an exit strategy don't they? How the hell else are they going to get out of this mess? They have taken everything that is left and thrown it down the toilet. $450 TRILLION in derivatives that have NO REGULATIONS GOVERNING THEM are about to go BOOM! Every bank (everything for that matter) is busted. Look at all the laws and prohibitions they are placing one your daily life, all in the name of protectionism. Bull shit. They saw this shit coming since the 90's and they are ready.

I tell you the first thing that needs to be eliminated is the Fed (Unmask The Fed). Then take out the lobbyists. Then trash everyone in Washington and start over with THE CONSTITUTION (in its original form - not this toxic fucked up shit they have turned it into) as a base and go from there. Oh, I would shut down the boarders, kick out all the illegals, pull back all military, tell the IMF to fuck off and deal with our problems first.

That is enough for now. I'm sure more will come soon enough. You need to open your eyes and call your representatives and express your legitimate concerns (and express your anger if you like) NOW! I have a feeling congress will have one last chance to make a stand for the people. They will have to choose between the banks and us. I have a feeling that we will win that battle (if we speak up), cause if we don't .....

Representative Offices are here.

Senators of the 111th Congress here.

What are you waiting on? Call 'em or email 'em NOW!

I hope you got to see "The Warning" last night on Frontline. If not please visit the PBS site here and learn how the bankster pigs in the name of greed and power really screwed up this country and shut down Brooksly Borne and her efforts to contain the contagion (derivatives market) that has caused the mess we are in now. If you think we'll ever get any sort of meaningful regulation of the financial markets, you have been smoking too many green shoots. If they ever decided to try to regulate the derivatives market it is guaranteed the 400+ trillion mess would surely collapse. Thus, we are left to either make it or break it, and I don't like our odds.

Have a great evening.


  1. Epic! Bravo! So you may have been a few days off, wasn't your call 10/12?

    Metals and Mining stocks Hollow Red Candles Galore! What's happening, will wthe SPX test the 50 MA or is it time to get Shorty!

  2. I have been watching the 3x ETF's since they were created. I know how risky they are.
    But, if someone had bought fas on March 6th and held, they could have a 900% profit.
    Why won't faz work the same way during the bear market? I figure it is good from $20 to at least $200 by spring 2010.

  3. Anon 1 - Thanks. 10/12 was the call with a range of 1050 to 1121. I'm definately thinking a test of the 50ma, but not willing to go mych farther than that at this time. See the morning post tomorrow when I'll give this shrt fall call a shot.

    Anon 2 - Sure. That will work, but as I always emplore my readers - have a strategy. IMO you can do a lot better trading the ups and downs of the major turns (like the 2 and 4 waves), but if you have a plan and we're in the fall,sure, you can buy and leave it. Just check it every now and then and adjust your stops to be safe.

  4. Awsome post Shanky! I agree with you 100% on cessation. Glad I'm in Texas. I watched The Warning yesterday thanks to your post. Thanks! It was really well done.

  5. There won't be enough liqiudity to pull off another uncontrollable collapse. The market will stall sideways for a while before the next big move (up or down). They killed the bulls in 08, the bears in 09 and speculators/daytraders will be next in 2010. People are too dependant on the system to lift a finger to complain about it. You don't even need a draft to start/fight more wars. That is possibly the only catalyst that will put an end to the madness.


Keep it civil and respectful to others.