Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Morning Post

Not quite the bottom yet, but we're getting close I suspect. SPX channeling down and price sitting on the gap and the 50% fib, nearing important support points but IMO the indicators are showing the falls strength is still pretty strong on the daily charts. The only thing that can stop the fall now is some PPT intervention.

POMO DAY IS TOMORROW. Last week the market rose pretty dramatically on Wednesday before POMO day and then gave it all back. If they begin a significant rise, that will be it for this fall. If you look at the daily chart below, you will notice that on this C wave climb it takes the market roughly 6 days to top but only 3 to bottom.

As for the count, 5 of c up begins soon. I have speculated from the beginning that 5 would truncate (I'm about 75% that the top is in). The lower red trendline on the daily chart may just be the new market support line as it rolls over. So, if we begin 5 up today or tomorrow it might not hurt too bad.

SPX 60m - You see the large blue megaphone. I'm not positive we make it to the bottom trendline on this fall, but we will be there (and thru it) sooner than later. I've been calling for a 1051 bottom which would do the trick and close the lower gap. The indicators here are not diverging yet.

SPX Daily - You all know that this chart really drives the majority of my calls. The S Sto is actually getting worse and is not about to turn. MACD, the histogram and ADX all look weak and not like they will be turning soon. WHAT WORRIES ME is the RSI and its interaction with the lower red trendline. It made it thru 50 (a support point) and if it can get thru here, the dailys will run to the bottom. You can clearly see the fibs, the 50 ma and the lower BB support points on the chart. Obviously my target is the 50 ma around 1051, then alt 1 would be the lower BB and alt 2 is the 38% retracement.

The e-minis 30m - are entering the gap from 1044 to 1055 channeling down. I'm not sold on the channel as it does not allow room for a faster fall, but it is the only really good pattern I have now. Indicators are embedding and should continue to. I could pen a lower trendline (green) that would allow for a greater faster fall, but I don't like it.

EUR/USD - Sitting at 1.4795 and the 61.8% fib is 1.4634. The lower rising wedge line (yellow) is above that point near 1.47. That should be it. If those give way look out. It closed slightly down yesterday making 4 red days in a row so maybe we get a green day here if not tomorrow. RSI is flat and turning it appears.

GL trading today!

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