Thursday, October 15, 2009

Morning Post

Bug repellent? Is that top bear market trendline on the minis gonna have the stuff to repel this freight train? Does the fact that SPX blew out and closed above its upper BB mean anything these days? Futures are down a smidge, but after yesterdays run, who cares! GS numbers were good? Who da thunk that? Market selling off on that news? Now that is a surprise. Jobs were still miserable IMO (what's another 500K jobs lost?). Other numbers are all a bunch of crap. They are massaged to deliver what they want you to know/hear. CNBS struggling this am. Nice!

/ES 30m - There is the yellow wedge. The formation did end and dumped right out the end. I have added a potential (dashed yellow) lower trendline (that runs out to another possible convergence point.

SPX 15m chart - This chart has the fibs for a near term fall and shows the recent rally the best. This counts up to a 3, but that was a 5 top (like THE top) before I changed it last night. I'm struggling with this top thingy. POMO ends soon, but what freaking tricks (if any) do they have left for further manipulation?

SPX Daily Indicator Chart - Closed above upper BB and back into the rising wedge for the C leg of the correction. That was a ballsy move yesterday. RSI is right under its trendline and S Sto is rolling over.

Do we get a sell signal today? Possibly, but I thought we were gonna get one yesterday before market decided to have a party with out me being invited. Keep an eye on things. Every time the market turns up here it could be "the" top. The divergence in the weekly SPX MACD histogram is screaming top as loud as it can.

If the /ES takes out both the yellow dashed trendline and the upper bark blue top P2 line, that lower wedge line at 1030 may be the target. 1065, 1056 and 1048 are the fibs for SPX. There is good support at 1065 as well. The gaps in range are from 1077 to 1073 and 1060 to 1057 (that 1057 matches nicely with the 50% fib).

As for my count - either the top is in, we are in 3 of C, we are in 4 of 5 of C of 2 with one more pop left to 1121 (my target number) or we are in 2 of C with a wad of upside left that takes us to 1220. I really have no clue. All I know it is will top in some form or fashion soon. If it does not the upside will be mind boggling again (and maybe that is what we need to get the top).

GL today!

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