Wednesday, September 30, 2009

ISM, SEC , EEM, China and Super Rally In The News

Yes, I can do more than chart. You see, I have this bi-polar issue where the blog gets chart heavy then news heavy, sorry bout that. It has a lot to do with time available.

The Pragmatic Capitalist has an article that you EEM investors may be interested in, TRADE OF THE DAY: BIG MONEY BETS AGAINST EMERGING MARKETS "A massive chunk of put options purchased on the emerging markets fund this afternoon flies in the face of the 1.5% rally in shares during the session to $39.20. Approximately 95,000 put options were purchased at the November 35 strike for an average premium of 73 pennies per contract." Hmmm, maybe a look at EEV would be worth it.

Barry Rithholtz at the Big Picture comes to the SEC's rescue (as far as blog persecution goes) in Giving the SEC Teeth. So how does one go about fixing the SEC? First there is the soft, almost apologetic, Barry's way...

And then there is the apparently more effective, down to earth, no apologies accepted Zero Hedge Way, More Pain For Humiliated SEC After Disclosure It Ignored Moody's Whistleblower Warnings. "As if the SEC could be humiliated any more, another piece of disclosure now highlights that Mary Schapiro's useless organization was unresponsive to whistleblower overtures by former Moody's employees attempting to warn the regulator "about Moody's weak compliance department and ratings process."" I prefer the ZH manner of addressing the issues with the most inept government subsidized regulatory unit.

Mish does a good job of covering the unexpectedly horrible PMI number this morning (did someone mention unemployment surprise today as well?). Reflections on the Unexpected Negative Surprise in Chicago Purchasing Index PMI highlights some of the rosy, green shoot bullshit reports that try to gloss over the number and then Mish delivers, "Fundamentally and technically the market is prime for a huge correction. Sentiment is extreme and the viewpoint expressed by William Dwyer above is consensus. However, it is important to keep in mind that as long as the corporate bond market stays healthy, stocks will likely have a bid. How much longer that remains is anyone's guess." Tomorrow's national ISM # and the non-manufacturing on Monday may be more fuel for the bear's fire (if you don't get your reports from Liesman on CNBS).

Bloomberg brings us U.S. Stocks Fall, S&P 500 Trims Best Two-Quarter Gain Since ’75. "“We’re in the faith part of the economic cycle,” said Ralph Shive, manager of the $1.3 billion Wasatch-1st Source Income Equity Fund, which has beaten 96 percent of competing funds over the past five years. “All of us to some degree are guessing how strong the recovery is or how long it will take. Market prices have anticipated a decent recovery at this point. At some point we need to see earnings turn.” " Look, I don't need to be messing with Ralph, but he needs to be spilling the beans. Earnings suck and will get worse IMO because they can't squeeze any more blood out of the turnip. Unemployment is getting "better" cause businesses are as lean as they can get. When you have dumped 16% of the workforce on their ass, you can't cut much more. It is only a matter of time before the reflated bullshit recoveryless recovery comes full circle.

The financial Times has a good one on China to cut back industrial expansion. "But over the past three months many government officials have begun to publicly warn that the credit binge could create overcapacity in heavy industry, which could produce a new round of bad bank loans."
Remember, they have built empty malls and bridges to nowhere to no end. LOL, and you thought our reinflation efforts were screwed up? Well, since you can not trust anything coming out of big red (much less here for that matter), I would say they are gunning for implosion #2. The only difference with them is they did not protect their banks in round one. Big trouble in little China lies ahead IMO, and that may have a direct influence on their deposits here.

I'm looking forward to the ISM numbers tomorrow and Monday. The market is topping (or has topped). When they lose the market they lose the public. When the public goes ape, it is all over. That is all that is left. I can't say when this will happen, but both you and I can see the pressure building. They are one slip or one "external" event from this collapsing in a dramatic fashion. If you have not noticed, everything is happening at such a rapid pace and there are so many balls in the air that something will be dropped and the house of cards will come crumbling down. Don't you wonder about the dollar, deflation, the lack of regulatory actions, monetization, TARP transparency, the Fed, and on and on? Tick, tick, tick....


  1. Shanky,

    Incarnate here. I enjoyed today's information, but most of all I enjoy the rants you publish. You artistically (if there is such a thing) express in words in what I feel. In my opinion what most Americans feel. With everyone being so damn politically correct these days, you have your freedom of speech which in my opinion is still a constitutional right, although is political suicide. Freedom of speech should be the hierarchy above people's feelings.

    Thank you for your work.


  2. Incarnate - Thank you very much. I have fun and will continue to till they take the internet away. I am positive that I have made Rahm's list of blogger terrorists by now. Bottom line is truth and freedom and America are worth fighting for. Our forefathers would not have put up with this shit and we don't have to either. Thanks for the comment and the views.

  3. Shanky
    I second Incarnate. You've got real skill (I'm going to have to quote you its so good.) Reminds me of


  4. Steve, thanks a bunch bud. Quote away (with links provided of course).


Keep it civil and respectful to others.