Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Morning Post

And the falsified jobs number says another 254k jobs lost in September. That is just great news! Only on quarter of one million people were put out of work this MONTH. Freaking green shoot if you ask me. Bottom line, the more jobs lost the more businesses will save in their cost cutting bonanza which will lead to better earnings thru contrition and not actual production. Not a good situation for the country, but a rocking good thing for the manipulated BS markets.

American businesses are on a souped up version of P90x and taking ephedrine by the gallon right now. They will be lean mean fighting machines when this is over. The question at the end will be, what the hell do you do with all of the fat you shed? Fat is just what it is. Over 7 million fat cells our economy has shit out. Problem is that we don't simply metabolize these, they have to be dealt with and added back to the body at some point in a constructive manner. When that begins to happen, we can talk about a recovery and the end of the recession.

GDP report -schmeDP report - like 70% is government spending and that is about to end and the consumer is dead so ....

On to the charts -

I may have discovered the wave 4 triangle for C of P2. As many of you know, triangles have been forming and breakouts occurring all thru P2. This may be another. 1105 would be the target range if it were to bust out here. May need to pullback for an E touch of the lower trendline -IF this is the correct formation. See the big green triangle below.

SPX Daily Chart - Still a tough call as RSI bounces around, S Sto looks to want to bull cross and MACD hist is going up. Either it reverses half way thru the fall or the fall continues.

/ES 15m -

Below in the /ES chart you can see the wave 4 of C (or 1 of P3) channel down. See the post below for more detail about what is what. Will it hold here? If not I expect a possible return to the top light blue trendline near 1100. Notice the backtest of the pink wedge, the tail thru the top yellow channel line and the blue top P2 line above. This is massive resistance here. Below you have the light blue C wave lower tendline. It is consolidating. A break above the dark blue line buy it. A break below the light blue line, sell it. Should be that simple.

IF the blue trendline (top of P2 wedge) holds here I will be more inclined to make my primary call P3 rather than P2.

This is a really tough spot. The EOQ window dressing was completed with incredible accuracy last week. Insider selling has been rampant. Equity MF outflows have been strong. It is only a matter of time now.

I have been busy and have not had a chance to get to much news lately. I'll get a news post out later today and be a little more consistent. Sorry bout that.

GL trading.

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