Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Morning Post (UPDATED)


Looks like the bulls may be making a charge for 5 of C or to complete c of 2 of 1 of 3. Are the dip buyers back?). I redrew the ABC channel to include the spike to 1075. Price in the /ES is there now. Careful if you are a bear here. This point, top of channel and back testing the top trendline of the P2 rising wedge should provide some resistance, but might not.

SPX daily Chart - RSI still green, but all the other indicators are showing some confusion. I hate these points in the market when the indicators all of a sudden stop their fall in the middle and wiggle around.

SPX 60m chart - Appears to be a little toppy. It can go either way here. 60m are not as significant at this time.

Bottom line is that the market is in a topping process of some sort. Any pops here should be limited in nature. Still watching the weekly chart for the final clue that the turn is in.

So, is this 4 of C zig-zag or have we begun 5 of C or 2 of 1 of 3 (putting 2 or 3 of C on the sidelines for now)? This is the conundrum. We'll be battling this call for another week I suppose so hang in there while the market sorts its self out. Now is not a time to be impatient. Let the call come to you. Don't try to force anything and keep your stops tight. I'll be watching the top trendline on the /ES and then to see if the market forms some sort of larger formation as this move matures.

My target range for this move up is 1080 to 1072. IF 1075 is broken we're in 5 of C and that moves the target for 3 of 5 of c to as high as 1092.

GL trading

/ES 30m chart - I just moved the channel line up for the ABC and there is a possibility that the market may stop here at the backtest of the top (heavy blue) trendline of the P2 rising wedge. If it clears this I would not want to be short.


  1. this fucker sure aint turning. I think your initial prediction of 1120ish October top is still very much in play. the dollar rally is not showing strenght, the market reversal did not show follow through and rsi still looks steady. lets see what happens on thursday after the eoq buying is over. just dont see the sell off coming anytime soon. (that in turn might be a good indicator that its just around the corner. I am about to give up on this shit)

  2. Anon - LOL it is frustrating as hell. Oct 12th is the big day. Funny as hell if it happens. I'm happy if it ends here. Not bad call if you ask me to put it in a 70 point window from 6 months away and come within a few weeks time wise. I'll take that. (If it turns of course). Uh, might be the best call on the web actually.

    Hang in there. It will turn. Like I said, be patient and let the market come to you. Tough spot right now.


Keep it civil and respectful to others.