Wednesday, September 9, 2009

Morning Post

Really tough call today as the indicators say there is more upside, but my gut is telling me this run is topping. If we are in P3 you have two options here. Either we are completing 5 of 2 of 1 of 3 and the dreaded wave 1 of 3 of 1 of 3 is about to start or this is the end of 1 of C of the corrective P2 pattern. Not really sure which option I prefer. I have leaned and won thus far with the manipulators, but with the news and pure economic facts that things are as bad as they should be and not as bad as CNBS would have you believe, I am more worried about significant downside risk than any sort of continued bull run.

60m SPX chart - SPX has completed the 61.8% retracement of the move from 1038 to 991 and is entering the zone where it consolidated for roughly two weeks at the end of August and the beginning of September. Indicators on this chart are topping.

Daily SPX chart - Divergences continuing to get worse as indicators tell of an impending fall.

Here is the 15m SPX chart with fibs for the next pullback (1013, 1009 and 1005) if we top here and the gap surrounding 1017. This chart also shows the possible I II count that EWT may have us in on P3 down very well as the two channels for each move are very clear. Watch for the 25ma on this chart to break as a sell signal (charts are real time at stockcharts).

/ESU9 - The channel of the past several trading days broke down in pre-market and is trying to break back in.

GL trading today.

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