Tuesday, September 1, 2009

Am I Conceding The Top Is In? (And My Best Chart Yet!)

Am I calling a top? Believe it or not, no. Not till the lower wedge line is pierced will I be a believer. For the 100th time, I am playing it as the top is in, but not calling one. This is the hardest decision as a prognosticator I have had to make yet. Tops are supposed to make you grind, and I am grinding now. Maybe the true "top" was in April and everything since was the "blow off" sucker rally. The pump and dump is done. That really makes a lot of sense. That should be the call I make here and now. That is what my gut is saying.

Do the manipulators have any more tricks up their sleeves? Who knows? Hard to imagine they don't. The world is crumbling down around us. The "good" news is beginning to be ignored. China is backing out, more bigger banks are failing, the treasury is out of money, the FDIC is bankrupt, the Fed is monetizing debt, unemployment is maintaining a steady 500k clip, 40% of the homes in America are under water, the consumer is dead, GS can front run the world and no one cares, the national debt is insane, even CNBS's constant parade of bullshit is not working any more (today was priceless - they had no clue what to do all day - fuck them) and we have the worst administration running the show in history.

Am I being stubborn? Yup, my worst trait. Like a spoiled child I want my 1050 to 1121 target in October. Should I be happy that I got within 11 points and one month of the lower target range? FNA Absofreakinglutely. That is better than most if I am not mistaken and I ain't paid to do this shit. Should I be happy that I stared all my permabear buddies down and stuck to my guns all the way up? Yup. I did good or you would not be reading this mindless masturbation I am having with myself right now. I am churning inside. I'll hate missing "the call", but at least I will be playing it right.

If the top is in. Let's rock this party. FAZ me to the gills. WARNING - If the top is in, you are now on the ride to hell in a hand basket. You know they say to be careful what you ask for? Here it comes. There is no telling the misery and total destruction this could bring. Anarchy in the streets, soup lines, wars - this is gonna suck and suck for a long time. I anticipate at least TWO market closures on the way down. When they start running for the gates, they will all run at once. More on all this later.

Since we're topping I'll throw this in. I enjoyed the ride up, kind of, well, not really. Thanks for taking it with me. I appreciate all my readers very much. The ride down should be really interesting (for lack of a better word). If you thought I ranted during the market going up, wait till this country is getting ripped apart. I'll really be pissed.

On to the best chart I have done yet (and does a nice job of marking the top I refuse to call)-

I love what I have done with this chart. My daily indicator chart on steroids. Pay attention to the ADX. The large vertical red lines are all keyed by ADX sell line bottoming out.

Look at the coincidences with the other indicators (and the SPXA50 just below). PPO, RSI, MACD, there are NO FALSE TOPS HERE. Only 4 on the chart to choose from and they all worked. The only questionable top was in April when this run should have ended, thus furthering my argument that all gains since April have been bullshit manipulation and are not real (thus will be evaporated).

Right now SPX is in a channel down that I will post in the am or you can see here.

Chart best viewed HERE.

GL Trading.


  1. The techs have no more upside as their major top trendline down has been tagged. Doubt the SPX/INDU indexes will give it another try considering the resistance that is now in place.

    We will follow China to hell; just got a late start.

    "Whether I'm right, or whether I'm wrong" - Shanky is our "Artist" on stage:


  2. S135 - Didn't I just do a post claiming GOOG is toast and the rest of tech will follow? Yup. I get it. I really do, but can't pull the trigger. The only thing I have to explain my call for more upside after this pullback is simply the lack of divergences on the weekly indicators and some incomplete patterns I've been tracking. Maybe this run up was so fast and furious that divergences will not be set and it just crashes. Thanks for the comment and the vid. LOL song is I've got to be me. Perfect.

  3. shanky, these posts are great, i've added your commentary alongside cobra's tech analysis for my daily reading. nice job.

  4. Great post...laughing my ass off...I agree, however, I suspect that NObama and his buddies will try to goose the market into q4 and q1 as gdp improves and more sightings of green shits emerge. However, after q1, I am actually paranoid. Could this country really collapse. Hard to believe but I am truly scared. Nice analysis and so far I agree with you rant...funny shit but a bit insane

  5. Shanky,
    wheather you called the top or not is not that relevant. i called the bottom and the top, so what? making money counts ;-).
    great blog.
    let's comment this p3 down, baby!

  6. Thanks everyone for the positive comments. They help keep the engine fired up.

    Let's rock this thing and gobble up some 3x shorts quickly before they take those away from us as well.



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