Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Morning Post - Up (but I expect a turn soon)

Good morning. Welcome to a short work week (for some of you). Minis are up and my dual monitors are down (I'm down).

SPX 60m Chart - This is my favorite chart right now giving the best depiction of what's going on. SPX breaking out of the channel down sucking the life out of the shorts and all of the top callers. Indicators here are bullish but toppy (topped out S Sto and CCI). 1021 is a 61.8% retracement of the last fall.

SPX Daily Chart - RSI stopped at 50 and is turning up. S Sto bull cross on Friday. MACD histogram going up now.

The only two things I see that may stop the run are the Daily RSI has an established trendline above it and the 60m indicators are toppy. Those are two slim hopes (and slim may have left town). The weekly chart is very toppy, so if you are a bull you need to heed the caution signs flashing all over the weekly chart.

/ESU9 - RSI, MACD and S Sto all very toppy. Completed a 61.8% retracement of the last fall. 1028 is the 78.6% retracement. You can clearly see the channel action over the past few weeks and the channel it is in now. I would like for you to notice how the larger GSEC channel 75% line (red lower trendline) is acting as a nice floor for this move.

/ESU9 Daily chart - Notice the divergence in RSI and the embedded MACD. I added the yellow box which is the 50% to 61.8% fib retracement for the whole move.

Add it all up and I have to say it is gonna be a flat to up day today given where the indicators are positioned. The weeklys are seriously toppy, so this run should not last much longer.

GL trading today (and wish me luck getting my second monitor back).

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