Friday, September 25, 2009

Morning Post

Wow, I believe it is nut cutting time. Either we complete the ABC corrective and head back up or the top is in and P3 is upon us. If this is 4 of C, then there is still some upside left, but I think a 5 would truncate and may or may not set a new high. This is my primary call. I will hold on to the 4 of C call till the double zig-zag does not play out and the form turns in to a clear 5.

I like the idea of a little consolidation up here or one last sucker push to the top (if the last run up - or all of this run off of 667 - is not it). The other three options 1) based in the manipulation camp and a second stimulus for them to continue to funnel back door funds into the market this might be 2 of C or 4 of 3 of C and 2) 1 of 1 of P3. I have to give all of the options.

I still like 4 of C with a double ZZ and limited upside in a truncated 5 up because the market is controlled, but am beginning to believe more in P3. Other EWTers are all over the place as usual. I believe I am the only one left with any hint of bullishness. RIMM's earnings and what the DOW, TRN and NDX are doing are beginning to sway me. I really was looking for something dramatic to end P2. Might still get it from the G20. Tensions are high. Iran may end up being the key.

Daily SPX Chart - Indicators look like they got Swine Flu and will remain sick thru the weekend. Next Monday may be interesting. (Possibly a 3 of 1 of 1?)

Weekly SPX Chart - Want to see a scary picture? This sucker is primed to plummet. I am a firm believer that the RSI cross of the trendline will mark the beginning of P3 just as it almost perfectly times P2. If you will peek at the VIX at the bottom of the chart, I believe it will correct to the MA100. When it crosses the MA100 look out. On this chart I believe you will be able to count waves pretty well on the way down by looking at the SPXA50 here as well.

/ES 30m - Held the top channel line nicely overnight. Busted thru the 38% fib line this am. Has its sights set on the light blue lower trendline of the second rising wedge formation.

/ES Daily - Here you can clearly see the light blue rising wedge leading to the throwover of the dominant P2 wedge formation, the lower trendline of that wedge and The BIG BLUE line in the sand (which from now on will be referred to as only BIG BLUE). The pink line at the top is the gap in /ES. That line is there for a reason. They are like magnets to price.

/ES 5m - Just in case you do not believe in the Trendline Fairy. these things really do work. A cross of the blue line is a big deal.

I am long SDS, VXX and UUP.

I wonder how you Cramericans are feeling this am after RIMM's stellar announcement? LOL, monkey see, monkey do.

Congrats to the Cocks and The 'ol Ball Coach on a fine victory last night. I still hate you both, but I am happy for you. Biggest win in history, something like that? Taking out a #4 ranked team at home? You gotta start building a program somewhere I guess. At this pace you'll get your first SEC East championship in 2020. To the Rebels, dude, I don't care if it was the SEC on the road on Thursday night. Dude.

Thanks to all new new followers that have signed up. If you have not done so, please do thru google. I will be going .com by the end of the year!

GL trading today and have a great weekend.



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