Monday, September 21, 2009

A Quick Look At The Weekly VIX

This is the big boy, not daily or 60m. This is a weekly chart of the VIX. Price is running along in a positive divergence to SPX since July with the 200ma acting as support now. The indicators are all oversold, have been embedded and are showing divergences to price. When the RSI crosses the 15ma it should be all over IMO.

Is this going to be "the" breakout? Hard to tell with possibly two head fakes already in the books. I think a dead cat bounce has been completed and a double bottom is possibly set. Some (including me) have had other trendlines that possibly show a breakout and back test of the top wedge line. If the move down was an ABC the target for C=A was missed by .10 by my calcs. BB's getting pretty narrow indicating increased volatility again.

No one knows which way the market will move (except on POMO days and every afternoon around 3:30). There is no reason the VIX can not continue to flat line like the dead meaningless index it has become. There is a chance that this is the 4th wave of 5, but 5 would have to truncate given price levels. This could also be a 1,2 move as well. I prefer the ABC mentioned above. Given the current state of the other chart I have been presenting, it looks like a storm is brewing to me.

I am long VXX from 50.65 since last week with a 5% stop.

Chart Better Viewed HERE.


  1. hi shanky.... I've got mine on an even shorter leash.... 12 ma with the rsi and it's over, rover...... lol..... include a back test on the ma and you're golden....

  2. oh, put this is your pipe and smoke it.....$SPXA50R&p=D&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p02583442214

  3. Lazy, Taht leash is tight, but I believe we all prefer and agree the tighter the better. LOL. It is close. Your chart link did not work. Thanks for the views. GL

  4. The peaks and troughs of 2003 VIX chart in relation to S&P500 could serve as a good reference to read the mood of investors in the current market. GKC


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