Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Don't Buy Into The Hype

I'm gonna keep on pounding the table. It WILL get ugly. IMO uglier than any of us are imagining. When Humpty Dumpty falls off of the wall, I'm willing to bet there will be nothing resembling 'ol Humpty when and if it is able to be put back together again.

One of the coolest posts I have seen this year comes from Zero Hedge. A little elbow grease and computer savvy and they produced Thousands Of Rusting Ship Hulls Are A Fitting Tribute To The Speculative Market Bubble. Care to see how many idle ships there are out there? Want to see the rotting carcass of global trade? The further you go into the article the more astounded you will become.

Since were talking shipping, why not take a look at the BDI. PragCap has IS THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY FORESHADOWING GLOBAL ECONOMIC WEAKNESS?. Well, after looking at the ZH article I would suspect "no shit" would be your initial thought. "The recent weakness in the Baltic Dry Index isn’t simply an anomaly. This excellent report out of ICAP details the very serious hurdles that the shipping industry and the global economy face going forward:". For those of you on the DRYS rocket ride, I'd keep an eye on the rear view mirror.

The Big Picture has Bank Lending Continues to Slip. A nice lending summary that shows just how afraid the banks are to let go of anything right now and that they are actually tightening their grasp (ya think they know what's really happening?). "It was just yesterday that Tim Geithner was lying that banks are constantly increasing lending to consumers. Well, yet another lie refuted. Banks, and not just any banks, but those receiving government bail outs and subsidies, continued constricting lending in July, with total average loan balance outstanding declining by $54 billion from $4,295 billion to $4,241 billion, a 1.3% decline, following a 1.1% decline in June." I guess I should not that this was in ZH and Naked Cap as well. Not sure where it originated.

Calculated Risk brings us Jobs, Jobs, Jobs. A nice little summary exposing the brutal employment environment and just how devastating it will continue to be here and abroad. "Unless government programs for the unemployed are refined, there is a danger that high jobless rates will persist beyond 2010 in advanced economies, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development warned on Wednesday."

Naked Capitalism has Financial Reform: Not happening but the need is clear. "Steve Keen, an Australian economist whose theories are heavily influenced by Hyman Minsky, has a cogent analysis of the true structural deficits in the current economic model that I think bears repeating here. He warns that we are trying to kick the can down the road and this will lead to an even larger bust." Don;t let Obama blow smoke up your ass about the reform BS he's preaching. We all know he and the rest of Washington A) bow to the big banks like he does to Arab leaders and B) any chance of real reform in this environment is impossible cause any sort of reform would lead to the immediate collapse due to the the accounting fraud and valuation methods used to sustain this mess.

While we are on reform, the shit may be about to hit the fan. Ron Paul (the man who should be president IMO) is kicking some regulatory ass and working towards getting his HR 1207 bill passed. Zero Hedge brings us Senate Support For "Audit The Fed" At 25 Co-Sponsors. "With HR 1207 passage now guaranteed in the House, it is time to focus attention on the Senate. As of last count, there were 25 co-sponsors for Sen. Bernie Sanders' S 604 Bill: "The Federal Reserve Sunshine Act of 2009."Below is the list of the 25 who have so far voiced with two third of the American people. As of now, there are still 75 who are siding on behalf of Wall Street." you have to ask yourself, just who are the senators that do not support this bill? Do they have your best interest at heart or theirs?

I'll end on a Denninger rant - WARNING: Deflationary Collapse Dead Ahead. "The fact of the matter is that you have been lied to for the last decade about our economic state, and if we do not divert from the road we are on our economy, our monetary system and our government WILL COLLAPSE." I can't agree more.

Look for the Morning Post in the am. This C wave is for real and kicking the bear's asses. The top is coming, it is only a matter of time before something (like regulation, China, Israel, Iraq etc..) steals it away from them. They are buying time now with our future, but sadly the results will not matter. Kind of sad they did not just let it bust in '08.

GL trading.


  1. Any idiot (me and you) can look at the charts see that it is very bullish, but simply overbought. The charts ($COMP) do look like 2001/2003! There is little hint of a huge wave down coming. EWT suggests it, and the EWT "herd" expects it. We EWTers also tend to gravitate to blogs that support the argument for a collapse too. (Close minded?)

    It will be interesting to see what truly happens. We are continually suprised by this market, and it may continue to suprise us by never getting as bad as we predict it should.

    One theory I have as that the FED and Treasury know that the USA is toast if nature is allowed to play out. Maybe we should be glad they are doing everything they can to prevent it, even illegally! I certainly don't want to be wiped out and fighting to survive. I'd like to hear your thought on this in an upcoming blog Shank.

  2. You got it S135. I'll digest and regurgitate a post on it. Might call it, "Damned If You do. Damned If You Don't."

  3. Well put Shanky. This truly is a Damned if you do, damned if you Don't. This market is a rigged game right now IMO. We have blatant SPY manipulation by JPM and we are now at the point where all those fund managers who missed the bottom will come pouring in trying to muster some sort of gains this year. 1100 or 1200 won't surprise me. I've been preaching my 900 + or - 200 over the next 3-5 years to as many people who will listen. Not many do.

    I cannot begin to tell you the number of people I overhear or am bragged to regarding their investment prowess over these past 6 months. It hasn't reached the level of of the internet or housing boom but is certainly starting to pick up steam. We haven't reached a frenzy quite yet.


Keep it civil and respectful to others.