Monday, April 21, 2014

Morning Charts and Earnings 04/21/14 SPX /es

Ah earnings season, that wonderful time of year so full of promise. Stories of endless growth and the riches that will accompany it run rampant, and you know what, if this quarter is a bust then next quarter, well, that one is gonna be awesome. The turnaround is just around the corner. This economy is about to explode. There is so much good shit about to happen it will make your head spin. Just look at the markets at all time highs, what could go wrong here? Absolutely nothing, so get all your money in here now and max out your margin. We're gonna get rich!

There is always an excuse if something goes wrong. Usually these are played off as temporary, explainable and avoidable in the future. Weather has been the go to factor of late for market blame. It's was the weather's fault for everything bad that's happened in the past five years. I'm pretty sure that market analysts and economists can point to a constant cycle where it has either been far too wet, frozen, cold or hot for the consumer to do anything, for job seekers to get jobs, for home buyers or builders to engage. Earnings disappointments has nothing to do with a stagnant, shrinking economy and everything to do with the weather.

Whatever you do just look over here at what the right hand is doing and pay no attention to the left hand. Never mind that analysts are paid to lie to you. They are worse than the MSM at spreading propaganda. Sadly there are few if any repercussions for them being incorrect, and they will just massage or 'revise' their overly optimistic projections if they should ever be wrong.

The STB quarterly earnings rant should be imprinted in your brain by now. The game goes like this - They beat by a penny sending shares soaring. That's all you need to know. STOP right there as an individual investor. Read no further. They beat, all is well, price is up, so go back to bed or buy more shares. What you forgot or did not pay attention to were the lowered revisions prior to earnings season that lowered the number to make that beat possible. They were able to lower the estimates without penalty because they lowered them into a QE supported market where no one gets punished.

What happens if you dig in the numbers you find they missed sales, missed revenues, had massive write offs, took some sort of accounting trick (non-gaap) and laid off a bazillion employees to make the beat possible. Not covered by the MSM in the initial new surrounding the "beat" will be even more layoff announcements and the lowered outlook for future earnings. That' OK though, they beat and that's all you need to know. All is well and the future is bright and rosy. Now go back to sleep.

The truth is QE supports everything, the central banks control all, ZIRP will be here for at least two decades, the markets are manipulated thru HFT and other factors and illegal insider action is more rampant than ever. Analysts really have no clue nor do they care how accurate their numbers really are. They know revisions are coming and that numbers will be moved wherever they need to go. It's all a joke designed to mislead you, to hide the truth and keep you investing in their system.

As for reality - Bundy, commodities and the dollar should be primarily in focus now as we near the end.

On to the lie -

Markets remain very nervous and this should not change. Everyone pretty much sees through the smoke now and reality is bearing down. We've close to some sort of massive jolt that should kick in even more fear and will mark the end. 

Minis 4hr - I adjusted the blue falling channel this morning cause I could make this point fit.

Minis 4hr - closer view. Upper blue channel diag and 1866 are resistance here. What you really need to note is how narrow the upper section of the red rising wedge of death has become. It's only about 56 points from top to bottom here. This does not leave much room for volatility, which is something this market has become accustomed to (as it does nearing or at a top). Support to watch is 1853 then 1844.

Much more to come below.

Have a good week.

GL and GB!

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